The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position isn’t loaded at the top today, with only Kemba Walker ($9,000) and Damian Lillard ($8,100) more expensive than $7,000 on FanDuel. Of the two, Lillard has been the superior DFS player of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games. He’s gone for 42.7 and 51.6 fantasy points in his past two games, which were especially impressive considering he faced the Celtics and Raptors on the road. He has an average matchup today against the Pistons, who rank 11th in defensive efficiency. He could see an increased role, as both Shabazz Napier and Evan Turner are questionable to play. In seven games this season without Napier, Lillard has averaged a 32.5 percent usage rate, 49.9 FanDuel points, and a +14.0 Plus/Minus.
Value
Ish Smith was outstanding last game, putting up 42.3 FanDuel points in a whopping 39.3 minutes against the Heat. It’s unclear whether his solid play of late has been the result of Blake Griffin‘s addition, but the numbers are solid: In 63 minutes so far with Blake on the floor, Smith has averaged 0.99 FanDuel points and a stupid-high 76.4 percent true shooting mark. That latter point will obviously come down, but it’s worth noting that, despite Blake struggling himself offensively in Detroit, he’s had a nice impact on the offense for the rest of the team:
Fast Break
Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson lead the position with massive Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +5.24 and +5.54, respectively, versus the Orlando Magic. The Magic are awful defensively this season, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency and allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions, and they’re particularly brutal against PGs. Dragic is coming off a brilliant game in which he scored 53.4 FanDuel points and 33 real points. They’ll look to continue his excellent play today in the slate’s best matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has been on a heater of late . . .
He’s averaged 31.1 percent usage and nearly 38 minutes per game in 15 games without John Wall this season. He can get hot against anyone, but make sure to pay attention to injury news in this game. Both Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo are questionable to suit up for Indiana. The Pacers defense would greatly take a hit, especially if the latter is out. Rim protector Myles Turner is also questionable, so this defense could be hurting. Beal is incredibly safe, and his $8,400 salary is too cheap on FanDuel, where he comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Zach LaVine has gone for 20-plus real points in each of his past two games, but the most important data point is that he exceeded 30 minutes last game for the first time since returning from injury. He has a beautiful matchup today against the Kings, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.9 points/100, and 28th in rebound rate. LaVine has underrated rebound upside — he had nine in his last game — and could fill up the box score fast. He’s not an efficient player, but given his current PT upside and usage rate, $6,600 on DraftKings is just too cheap.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell is probable to play tonight after being a surprise scratch on Saturday with flu-like symptoms. He exploded in the last game he played, going for 61.75 DraftKings points against the Suns. He has another great matchup today against the Pelicans, evidenced by his +4.39 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s quite a bargain at $7,100 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
You can’t pay up at SF today because there are no players in the slate. Otto Porter leads the position with a $7,000 salary on FanDuel, and Josh Richardson is the only other player above $5,700 with Harrison Barnes ruled out for Dallas. Both players are fine floor plays and Richardson continues to be a nice cash-game value, hitting salary-based expectations in 67 percent of his contests this month. He went for 39.2 fantasy points last game and he should be a solid play again today against a Magic team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Porter is a little pricey, but he does lead the Wizards with a +3.5 percent usage increase in games without Wall this season.
Value
Value at the SF is hard to find. You can take a chance on Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who played 34.1 minutes last game and could continue to play a bit more with Marvin Williams out. Still, MKG has a low floor and not really much of a ceiling. You could instead take one of the Chicago guys in Paul Zipser or Justin Holiday. The former is minimum-priced on DraftKings at $3,000 and put up a 16-5-2 line on 20.3 percent usage last game. The former leads the team in minutes without Nikola Mirotic, Kris Dunn, and Lauri Markkanen on the floor, but he’s averaged an atrocious 0.57 DraftKings points per minute during that time. Or maybe you can keep on rolling with Mario Hezonja, who’s gone for between 24 and 27 FanDuel points in each of his past four games and should continue to play a role with Aaron Gordon out. Paying up for Porter or Richardson doesn’t sound so bad anymore it seems.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari likely deserves to be mentioned in the value section above. He’s especially cheap at $5,700 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He went for 40.3 fantasy points in nearly 30 minutes in his last game, which is a good sign as he returns from missing 25 games due to a glute injury. He has a great matchup tonight against a Dallas squad that ranks 20th in defense and dead last in rebound rate.
Two other guys in the $5k-6k range on DraftKings also deserve mentioning. Will Barton has been very solid of late, averaging a +4.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. And Wesley Matthews, while he may not play a lot more with Barnes out, could see a usage increase. That hasn’t been the case so far this season — he’s actually averaged a usage rate 1.8 percent lower with Barnes off the floor — but that sample may not be completely representative. He’s worth a shot in a couple GPP lineups given the ugliness of the position today.
Power Forward
Studs
Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis are the only high-priced studs at the position tonight, and Brow isn’t even PF-eligible on FanDuel. Blake was solid in his first game with Detroit, putting up 50.0 DraftKings points in 35 minutes of action against the Grizzlies. The second game was less impressive — he put up just 38.75 fantasy points and went 6-of-19 from the field — but there are positive signs moving forward. As mentioned above, he’s had a positive effect on his team’s offense so far, even if his own hasn’t come around yet. Everything else has been there: He’s grabbed 19 boards and dished out 12 assists in his first two games. If the shot comes around, he could be an intriguing contrarian play for GPPs.
Value
The PF position is certainly where all the value in the slate lies. Nikola Mirotic looked great in his first game as a Pelican, putting up 48.0 DraftKings points in 35.2 minutes of action. He has one of the largest pricing discrepancies in the slate, as he’s just $5,800 on DraftKings but $7,500 on FanDuel. He predictably has a huge 99 percent Bargain Rating on the former site. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, although given his floor-spacing role alongside Brow, the rim protection is less of a hindrance to his fantasy outlook. He’s an easy play today, especially on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Dallas guys like Dwight Powell and Dirk Nowitzki could be popular with Barnes ruled out, and they’ve done well without him this season:
Powell is especially intriguing, as he played 31.1 minutes last game and put up 31.25 DraftKings points. He’s ridiculously cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings, and he leads all players today with a stupid-high +7.54 Projected Plus/Minus.
Bobby Portis has put up underwhelming fantasy efforts without Mirotic and Markkanen, but it hasn’t been for lack of shots. He’s played 28.0 and 24.5 minutes over his past two and he’s posted usage rates of 23.9 and 29.2 percent. The issue has been his combined 7-of-28 shooting from the field. If things start dropping today – they certainly could against Zach Randolph and the Kings – he could put up a monster game.
Center
Studs
The top of the center position has dudes with absolutely massive ceilings. Brow is playing without Boogie and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games. He’s gone for 38 and 43 real life points over his past two. Andre Drummond has gone for 66.5 and 72.9 in two of his past three, one of which was a 23-20 with Blake playing. And don’t forget about Nikola Jokic, who has had some monster games despite playing about as brutal of a four-game stretch as possible:
None of the top guys stand out in terms of matchup, so it could be wise to leverage yourself in tournaments by focusing on projected ownership. Any of these players could put up a GPP-winning performance.
Value
Robin Lopez likely won’t be as popular on DraftKings, where some of the PFs listed above — the true values — also have center eligibility. Things are tougher on FanDuel, where RoLo has nice minutes upside with all of the Chicago injuries. He played 36.2 minutes last game and put up 34.1 FanDuel points in the process. He remains very cheap at just $4,400 on FanDuel, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. And, oh yeah, he faces a Kings team that ranks 28th in rebound rate.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert hasn’t really smashed value lately, but he has been incredibly consistent, averaging a +0.49 FanDuel Plus/Minus on stellar 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks of the day at +3.37 against the Pelicans, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency. As everyone loads up on the value PFs and stud centers, it could pay off to a mid-priced option like Gobert or Willie Cauley-Stein.
Good luck!
Photo via Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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