The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday presents a three-game slate that begins at 3:30pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Stud
John Wall is the second-most expensive guard on the slate, and despite playing 33 minutes in Game 3 he exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel. He leads all points guards on the slate with 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings and 90 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the last month (per our Player Models).
The Celtics have continued to use Isaiah Thomas as the primary defender on Wall at the start of each half, and Wall has taken advantage with a playoff-high 11.3 actual points on 60.0 percent shooting and 5.0 assists during the first quarter. Wall also currently ranks second to Thomas in usage rate during the second round of the playoffs at 32.0 percent.
When the Wizards have received at least two days of rest prior to a home game, Wall has recorded between 47.75 and 61.0 DraftKings points this season, and he’s averaged more than today’s salary-implied point total (per our Trends tool):
Wall has been stellar at home all season, recording a 73.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings when favored, and when the Wizards have faced teams with at least a .500 record at home and been favored since the beginning of December Wall has proven to be a solid commodity in cash games:
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Kyle Lowry called himself doubtful to play today, and his backup, Cory Joseph, has recorded 32.7 and 20.6 FanDuel points in the last two games. The Raptors play in the early game, which likely reduces the chances of Lowry recovering in time to suit up. If he doesn’t start but is active for the second straight game, it may be a hint that he won’t play again. Either way, we’ll know his status prior to lineup lock.
Joseph is dual eligible on DraftKings at shooting guard, and when Lowry has been off the court this postseason Joseph has led the Raptors with a 26.2 percent assist rate. Delon Wright, who costs $2,000 on DraftKings, will likely act as the backup point guard, and if the Raptors fall behind significantly then Wright could see significant minutes late in the game.
Fast Break
Patrick Beverley: If Joseph doesn’t start, Beverley will become the cheapest projected starting point guard on the slate, and he’s been superb at home this season. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight home games, and despite converting 3-of-13 shots on Friday he ransacked rookie Dejounte Murray, who is slated to make his second straight start. Beverley costs the same as Patty Mills on DraftKings but is $1,000 less than Joseph on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Shooting Guards
Studs
James Harden battled through ankle, hip, and illness constraints in Game 3, and despite being limited to five assists he recorded 59.0 DraftKings points in 40 minutes. The Spurs have moved Kawhi Leonard onto Harden full-time, and on the Rockets’ pick-and-rolls the Spurs have stayed glued to the three-point shooters and allowed Harden to get to the rim unabated.
In four home games this postseason, Harden has averaged 14.8 free-throws per game and a 41.7 percent usage rate, and in four road games, Harden has averaged 9.0 free-throw attempts per game and a 31.0 percent usage rate. His salary remains cumbersome on FanDuel, where he’s averaged a -5.18 Plus/Minus over the last eight games, but he costs less than $11,000 for the fifth straight game on DraftKings.
Harden is the second-most expensive player on the slate and one of four players priced above $10,000. That may negatively affect his ownership, which can be tracked by Pro Subscribers after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
DeMar DeRozan is a direct pivot in guaranteed prize pools because Lowry may be sidelined and Harden has had trouble hitting his Upside mark at his salary. Harden was limited to 13 assist opportunities in Game 3, down from his season mark of 21.5 (via Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle). However, when the Rockets have been favored at home against teams with records of at least .500, Harden has provided solid value for cash games:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Norman Powell attempted 19 shots in 36 minutes during Game 3, and he ranks second on the Raptors in total fourth quarter minutes this postseason. When Lowry has been off the court, Powell has recorded a team-best +6.7 usage rate differential and second-best 0.94 DraftKings points per minute (per the On/Off tool). He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games, and the difference between his projected floor and implied point total is 5.74 points on FanDuel — the second-narrowest margin on the slate.
Fast Break
J.R. Smith: His primary function in the second round has been to defend DeRozan. Smith has performed admirably through the first three games — limiting DeRozan to 26.9 percent accuracy when Smith has been on the court — but he picked up his fifth foul midway through the third quarter of Game 3 and never returned. He recorded 12.75 DraftKings points in 17.4 minutes, and his team-low 9.9 percent usage rate limits his appeal to tournaments, in case he explodes for five-plus three-pointers.
Small Forwards
Studs
LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are two of the three most-expensive options on the slate.
James hasn’t recorded fewer than 56.0 DraftKings points in eight straight games, but he has failed to exceed salary-based expectations on FanDuel in two of the past three games by a cumulative margin of two points. He’s one of five players in the DraftKings player pool and one of four players in the FanDuel player pool who’s recorded 100 percent Consistency over the past month.
When the Cavs eliminated the Raptors from the postseason last year in Toronto, James played 41 minutes in a 26-point victory and compiled 65.25 DraftKings points in the closeout game. Only once over the last three postseasons has James played fewer than 30 minutes in a potential closeout game, and it occurred at home in a 30-point win against the Hawks. He’s played at least 38 minutes in every other closeout game, all but one of which have occurred on the road.
Powell is roughly four inches shorter and 35 pounds lighter than James, yet coach Casey has utilized Powell as James’ primary defender. James has converted 67.6 percent of his shots when Powell has been on the court in the second round, and James has looked to score more than facilitate, averaging 14.0 more points and 2.2 fewer assists per 100 possessions when he shares the court with Powell.
Leonard has led the Spurs in usage rate, assist rate, and point-per-minute production when Tony Parker has been off the court this season, and when the Spurs have been road underdogs Leonard has averaged 51.25 DraftKings points (excluding the final game of the regular season).
Leonard is significantly cheaper than James on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he narrowly missed a triple-double in Friday’s win sans Parker. There are enough alternatives on the slate that pairing Leonard and James isn’t a necessity, and if you need to save salary at small forward then prioritizing Leonard over James (who is an elite cash play) may pay off in GPPs if the Cavs are up by 40 heading into the fourth quarter.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Bojan Bogdanovic may see increased playing time with Kelly Oubre suspended. Bogdanovic played 29.4 minutes in Game 3, but his minutes came at the expense of Markieff Morris and were increased due to garbage time in the fourth quarter. Bogdanovic costs no more than $4,100 on either platform today, and in the limited home games he’s played as a Wizard during the regular season he’s converted 49.4 percent of his field goal attempts and 47.8 percent of his 3-point tries — up from 43.5 and 33.3 percent in road games.
Otto Porter moved up to power forward to combat the Celtics’ size in Game 3, which was another reason Morris was limited to 18.6 minutes. Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight playoff games, and he’s averaged an +11.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus in seven games against the Celtics this season. Porter took advantage of the mismatch when guarded by the Celtics’ Thomas, and Porter also offers power forward eligibility on DraftKings. He hasn’t played fewer than 37 minutes in any of the first three games despite double-digit margins of victory in each game.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: He played 46 minutes in Game 3, and he’s cheaper than similarly-priced Jae Crowder, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in all six games against the Wizards this season. Ariza is the cheapest player on DraftKings ($4,900) presently projected to play more than 34 minutes, and Ariza’s production this postseason has resembled a sine wave. When the Rockets have been home favorites, Ariza has averaged 27.29 DraftKings points per game this season — 5.14 points above today’s salary-implied point total. Ariza’s lack of consistency, a position-low 40 percent over the last month, reduces his appeal to GPPs.
Power Forwards
Stud
Kevin Love has failed to exceed salary-based expectations in five of the past seven playoff games, yet he’s the most expensive power forward on the slate. He hasn’t played in three of seven fourth quarters this postseason, including two of the last three, and he tends to phase out of the offensive game plan following the first quarter. The one time he had success this postseason is when he dominated a mismatch against Lance Stephenson; otherwise, Love’s playing time and production make him a mediocre cash play.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Ryan Anderson‘s poor performance at home in Game 3 resulted in a salary increase of $400 on DraftKings and a salary decrease of $400 on FanDuel. Anderson has yet to make a 3-pointer at home during these playoffs, and despite possessing the worst Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate he leads all power forwards with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. In the power forward landscape on FanDuel, Anderson immediately stands out in the models due to his $4,300 salary. He’s played at least 29 minutes in three straight games, but if you’re going to ignore Anderson’s cheap salary the Wizards’ Morris may be a viable alternative after two days of rest and fewer than 20 minutes of action on Thursday.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge: Serge Ibaka shared the court with Valanciunas for 24 minutes in the last game, and he recorded two total rebounds. When Ibaka and Valanciunas have played together this postseason, Ibaka has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points and a -4.1 percent rebound rate as opposed to 1.0 DraftKings points per minute and a +2.5 percent usage rate differential sans Valanciunas. That is the case for Aldridge over Ibaka, should Valanciunas remain in the starting lineup.
Centers
Stud
Al Horford is the most-expensive center on the slate. He was one of four Celtics starters who failed to exceed salary-based expectations in Thursday’s 27-point loss. Horford costs a season-high $8,300 on FanDuel for the fifth straight game, and as mentioned in Thursday’s NBA Breakdown Horford has struggled when the Celtics have been road underdogs this season:
Values
Jonas Valanciunas played a postseason-high 33.2 minutes in Game 3 and he’s recorded at least 28.5 DraftKings points in consecutive games. Pau Gasol has refrained from committing excessive fouls since rejoining the starting lineup, and Harden has been limited to an impressive 35.7 percent field goal rate inside the restricted area with Gasol on the court. Valanciunas offers a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings and Gasol costs $100 more than Valanciunas on FanDuel. Since Valanciunas hasn’t played more than 30 minutes since March 8th, it’s difficult to imagine him exceeding that mark for the second straight game. However, he costs $1,000 less than Gasol on DraftKings, a worthy trade-off if Lowry doesn’t play.
Fast Break
Marcin Gortat: Even though Ian Mahinmi returned to action in Game 3, Gortat’s playing time wasn’t adversely affected as Mahinmi replaced Jason Smith in the rotation. Coach Brooks confirmed Mahinmi will play a few more minutes in Game 4, leaving the majority of the center minutes for Gortat, who has recorded 41.6, 34.5, and 34.2 FanDuel points in the first three games of the series and seen his salary remain $6,000.
Clint Capela: He has yet to miss salary-based expectations in five home games this postseason, and for the entire season he’s averaged a +6.63 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80.6 percent Consistency at the Toyota Center. He’s the second-cheapest projected starting center, and he was one of three Rocket starters to play the entire fourth quarter in Friday’s loss.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
