Sunday provides a four-game main slate beginning at 1pm ET. Seven of the eight teams are implied to score at least 102 points (per the Vegas dashboard), a swift departure from Saturday’s slate. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
The point guard position is stacked for the second straight day. Russell Westbrook, John Wall, Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry headline the stud crop.
Westbrook averaged 58.43 FanDuel points in four games against the Rockets this season, and his salary-implied point total is 57.13 FanDuel points tonight. When Kevin Durant was off the court during last year’s postseason, Westbrook averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute, a 45.3 percent usage rate, and a 67.5 percent assist rate. Those numbers resemble his output this regular season, but Westbrook is expected to see an increase in playing time from 34.4 minutes per game to at least 37.0 minutes, his average in four games against the Rockets. Westbrook averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute against the Rockets this year, which puts him on pace for over 70 DraftKings points should he manage to play at least 40 minutes in the opener.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
The Hawks ranked in the bottom three in turnover rate during the regular season and allowed the second most steals per game. The Wizards ranked second in the league in steals per game, and Wall averaged 2.5 steals per game against the Hawks this year. However, he’s been limited to 44.31 DraftKings points and 32.9 percent efficiency from the field in all four games. He was much more proficient at home, providing 47.5 and 51.5 DraftKings points, totals higher than today’s salary-implied point total.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Lillard recorded a 26.6 percent usage rate against the Warriors this season, his lowest mark against any team in 32.6 minutes. He was largely guarded by Klay Thompson, and the Blazers averaged a 93.7 Offensive Rating during the four games, including a 43-point loss in the second meeting. Lillard had success against the Warriors in last year’s postseason before Curry returned from injury, but (at a salary greater than Curry’s on DraftKings and FanDuel) Lillard will likely go under-owned and hold more value as a pivot option. Pro subscribers can review ownership in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock. In nine games against the Warriors last season, including the postseason, Lillard exceeded 60 DraftKings points on four occasions.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
The Warriors haven’t scored fewer than 113 points in any game against the Blazers this season. They’ve been so dominant against the Blazers that Curry has played six total fourth-quarter minutes in three games and averaged a 33.1 percent usage rate — an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to his yearly average. As mentioned, Curry is cheaper than Lillard, and when the Warriors have been favored by at least 13 points this season Curry has responded with a +3.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 61.8 percent Consistency — the second-highest mark in both categories on the roster. When Curry has had at least two days of rest, he’s averaged 51.34 DraftKings points on 81.3 percent Consistency this year, and the Warriors have been favored by at least 10 points in 13 of the 16 instances.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
In the four meetings between the Warriors and Blazers, they’ve averaged a pace of 105.77, which is two possessions per 48 minutes greater than that of the league-leading Brooklyn Nets and 11 possessions per 48 minutes more than any game that was played yesterday. Game stacking the Blazers-Warriors game could pay dividends in GPPs, but the 14.5-point spread isn’t conducive to cash game safety.
Values
Patrick Beverley is the most inexpensive projected starting point guard, which is enough to qualify as a value option. His 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel is inviting, and in three games against the Thunder this season he averaged a modest 21.3 FanDuel points as one of only two rotation players on the Rockets to compile a negative FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Among projected reserves, Marcus Smart ranks first in projected minutes in the Player Models. During last year’s postseason, Smart averaged 32.1 minutes, the fourth-highest mark on the team. He may have a larger role this evening since Isaiah Thomas could be a game-time decision. Among guards projected to play at least 30 minutes today, Smart is the cheapest option on DraftKings. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Celtics’ backcourt situation and Smart’s inconsistencies as a shooter, Smart profiles more as a GPP play.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo: He costs $6,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he gets to play on national television. When he shared the court with Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler after the All-Star break, Rondo averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and a team-best 34.5 percent assist rate.
Shooting Guards
Stud
The Thunder are one of three teams to prevent James Harden from meeting salary-based expectations in every game this season:
In the 136 minutes Harden shared the court with Andre Roberson, Harden converted 19-of-61 shots and 4-of-26 three-pointers while averaging 30.2 percent usage — four points off his seasonal average. Per our Matchups page, Harden and Roberson are destined to meet again.
Harden is one of several players who could broach 40 minutes tonight, and the Thunder-Rockets over/under of 227.5 is the highest mark on the board. The Rockets scored at least 118 points in each of the last two meetings against the Thunder. Nonetheless, the shooting guard position isn’t the wasteland it was yesterday, allowing you to spend down to avoid the matchup.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Eric Gordon and Lou Williams cost $4,300 on FanDuel. The Rockets will likely utilize an eight-man rotation and slide Trevor Ariza up to power forward to compensate for not having anyone behind Ryan Anderson off the bench. When Gordon and Williams have been on the court simultaneously since the All-Star break, Williams averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute to Gordon’s 0.72 DraftKings points per minute. When Williams played for the Raptors in the 2014-15 postseason, he averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute and converted 19 percent of his 3-point attempts. Both have struggled with their shot since the All-Star break, and Williams is presently projected for higher ownership in GPPs.
According to coach Mike Budenholzer:
plan for game one is to keep deep rotation, massage that, and adjust in game if need be
Tim Hardaway Jr. is expected to start. He could see minutes as the backup point guard, and in four games against the Wizards this season, Hardaway Jr. led the Hawks with a +9.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus on some grossly unsustainable shooting. The Wizards have ranked 27th in Defensive Efficiency since the All-Star break, yielding 110.6 points per 100 possessions, and when Ian Mahinmi was off the court during that span, their defense melted to 115.3 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Hawks are currently implied to score 101.5 points, but (with the Wizards’ shaky defense) infusing a few Hawks into GPP lineups may provide variety. The overarching concern is Budenholzer’s laissez-faire attitude when it comes to rotations, but Hardaway is cheap enough at a position worth considering in cash games.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum: When Thompson guards Lillard, McCollum will likely have Curry guarding him. That’s an exploitable matchup for McCollum, who recorded 43.75 and 57.25 DraftKings points in the last two games against the Warriors on a team-best 31.5 percent usage rate.
Dwyane Wade: When Wade has had at least two days of rest this season, he’s averaged 36.54 DraftKings points and a +5.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s expected to receive close to 30 minutes after being limited in the final three games of the postseason.
Small Forwards
Studs
Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler are the most expensive small forwards on the slate. Butler costs more than Durant on both platforms, and given the 14.5-point spread in the Warriors-Blazers game Butler may receive more playing time.
Durant is sub-$9,000 on DraftKings for the fourth straight game. Over the last three games, he played no more than 32 minutes and averaged 44.2 DraftKings points. The difference in salary between Durant and Butler on DraftKings ($1,400) tilts the scales in Durant’s favor.
Butler will share possessions with Rondo and Wade. When all three were on the court following the All-Star break, Butler averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, a meager 18.1 percent usage rate, and a 21.4 percent assist rate. The salaries between Butler and Durant are close enough on FanDuel that the decision may come down to upside versus minutes floor.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Andre Iguodala is eligible as a shooting guard only on DraftKings and listed as a small forward on FanDuel. In both instances, he costs no more than $4,300. With Matt Barnes sidelined, Iguodala is likely to see anywhere from 25-30 minutes. In four games against the Blazers this year, Iguodala provided 23.38 DraftKings points in 27.2 minutes.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: He hasn’t played fewer than 34 minutes in four games against the Thunder this season, and in the most recent encounter he posted 46.2 FanDuel points and six 3-pointers. Among the Rocket starters, Ariza’s +6.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Thunder is the best mark.
Andre Roberson: He stayed out of foul trouble against the Rockets this season and averaged a +10.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 34.3 minutes in the four games. He dealt with a sore left knee at the close of the season and missed three of the final four games, but his playing time will be tethered to Harden’s.
Power Forwards
Studs
Paul Millsap and Draymond Green are the most expensive power forwards on the slate. Millsap is more expensive than Green on both sites, and he leads all players on the slate in FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus.
Green has been priced down to a season-low $6,900 on DraftKings and is $6,800 on FanDuel. He leads all power forwards with a salary decrease of $1,400 on FanDuel over the past month. It’s either a trap or a really good deal. In four games against the Blazers, Green averaged 5.8 actual points and attempted a season-low 5.3 shots, which translated into an 11.4 percent usage rate. He still averaged 34.4 FanDuel points against the Blazers, which is roughly seven points higher than today’s salary-implied point total. Per the Trends tool, power forwards have provided solid value against the Blazers this season:
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Millsap gets the best matchup for power forwards in the postseason, which can be confirmed by referencing the image above. Much has been made about the way he’s been guarded by Markieff Morris, and in the three games against the Wizards Millsap supplied 48.25, 32.75, and 14 DraftKings points. Morris may not be the antidote to Millsap, but his relative success is at least worth considering when deciding between Millsap and the cheaper Green.
Millsap: DFS Scouting Report
Values
David West costs $2,400 on DraftKings. He played at least 13 minutes in the final 13 games of the regular season, and prior to the finale he exceeded 11.0 DraftKings points 12 consecutive times. His salary-implied point total is 9.65 points tonight.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris: In four games against the Hawks this season, Morris has averaged a +7.7 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Al-Farouq Aminu: In five games against the Warriors during the postseason last year, Aminu averaged 34.3 DraftKings points and attempted at least nine shots in every game. He was called upon to play at least 36 minutes in four of the games, and he ranked second on the team with 5.8 three-point attempts per game.
Centers
Studs
Dwight Howard and Al Horford are the most expensive center options expected to play. Jusuf Nurkic costs more than both of them, but his status is unclear.
Howard leads all centers on this slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and in four games against the Wizards he averaged a team-high 37.5 DraftKings points per game. However, over the last four games of the regular season, Howard didn’t play more than 25 minutes and sat during two fourth quarters. As coach Mike Budenholzer experimented with smaller lineups, Howard became marginalized. Based on Budholzer’s comments about expanding the rotation, Howard may face depressed minutes. He’s one of several Hawks who don’t make economical sense in cash games due to the rotational uncertainty.
In the six games Isaiah Thomas missed this season, Horford led the Celtics with 36.33 DraftKings points per game, a 24.2 percent usage rate, and a 30.6 percent assist rate (per the On/Off tool). When he’s dealt with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus at home this season, Horford has averaged 37.51 DraftKings points on 84 percent Consistency.
Value
Marcin Gortat may see an increase in playing time now that Ian Mahinmi has been ruled out of Game 1. In the 51 games Mahinmi missed this season, Gortat averaged 30.49 DraftKings points in 34.4 minutes (0.89 DraftKings points per minute). With Mahinmi healthy since the All-Star break, Gortat was limited to 20.56 DraftKings points in 24.3 minutes (0.85 DraftKings points per minute). If Gortat sees a majority of the minutes at center ahead of Jason Smith, he’ll likely exceed his salary-implied point total of 18.15 DraftKings points. He costs less than $5,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and in three games against the Hawks sans Mahinmi he averaged 31.03 DraftKings points per game.
Zaza Pachulia costs $2,600 on DraftKings, the lowest salary for a projected starter. He could get played off the court if Meyers Leonard is drilling 3-pointers from the jump, but in four games against the Blazers this season Pachulia produced 15.5, 16.25, 25.75, and 30.75 DraftKings points. His salary-implied point total is 10.65 points, and since he averages 1.03 DraftKings points per minute when the other four starters are on the court Pachulia would need 11 minutes to at least meet salary-based expectations.
Fast Break
Steven Adams: The Rockets have allowed the most points in the paint on a per game basis. Adams, Enes Kanter, and Westbrook all rank inside the top-24 in points in the paint this season, and Adams averaged 28.0 DraftKings points in four games against the Rockets.
Clint Capela: He’ll split minutes at center with Nene, who averaged a team-best +8.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Thunder this season. Capela has been more productive at home this season, producing a +6.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 78.1 percent Consistency.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
