Sunday brings a five-game main slate at 5pm ET. Because it’s a small slate, let’s jump straight into positions.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook remains historically expensive at $13,000 DK and $13,400 FD, but he also continues crushing value. He’s done this ridiculousness over his last six games:
Note: When Westbrook plays the Suns, you should roster him in DFS.
Today he gets the Mavericks, who have been stingy against PGs this year (as evidenced by Westbrook’s position-worst -4.06 DK Opponent Plus/Minus) almost entirely because of their league-low pace of play. Still, Westbrook dropped 63.5 DK points on them in their first meeting this season and he now gets a matchup against starting PG Yogi Ferrell, who is 6’0″ and not a great defender so far in his young career. It’s hard to fade this version of Westbrook.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
D’Angelo Russell has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games, averaging a +2.49 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. He has actually been playing 30-plus minutes (a rarity in his short career so far) and has shown that he can be consistent in that situation. He’s still quite underpriced on FanDuel, where his low $6,400 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He does face a tough Pelicans defense that ranks seventh in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions, but, again, this is about price. As I mentioned on Friday, guys with high Bargain Ratings on FD compared to DK have shown to be quite valuable this year . . .
. . . and especially lately, as DK’s pricing continues to be very tight.
There are many great pivot plays in between these guys as well. Jrue Holiday played 43 minutes last game and gets a Lakers squad that ranks seventh in pace, averaging 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. He put up a +3.35 DK Plus/Minus against them in their first meeting. And right above him sits Isaiah Thomas and Eric Bledsoe, who face each other in the slate’s highest total game at 225 points. The Suns and Celtics remain two of the worst teams in the league at defending PGs:
Shooting Guards
Seth Curry is the picture of Consistency lately: He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last nine contests and has averaged a +4.46 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10.
He’s received 30-plus minutes in each of his last seven games, and he’s stepped up since the NBA All-Star break, when the Mavericks waived PG Deron Williams. Since Deron’s last game on 2/15, Curry has averaged 25.5 FD points and a +8.2 Plus/Minus. He’s increased his usage rate by 2.1 percent in those five games sans Deron, and he certainly has a nice matchup on Sunday against Alex Abrines, who will likely get the start again for Victor Oladipo.
Devin Booker is another who seems to be continually underpriced on FD, where his $6,100 salary comes with a position-high 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He will likely face the tougher of the two Boston backcourt defenders in Avery Bradley, but Bradley has been somewhat overrated on that end this season, as evidenced by his -1.40 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Booker has been quite up and down lately, and he has 11 turnovers in his past two games, but he will possibly have lower ownership than Curry, who has been incredibly consistent and is only $200 more on FD. Booker is projected for 34.0 minutes, he has the position’s third-highest projected ceiling, and he is projected for only 21-25 percent ownership (compared to 31-plus percent for Curry and Bradley Beal).
Marcus Smart has been unremarkable yet consistent lately, averaging a +5.26 FD Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He is another SG that continues to be underpriced on FD: His $4,900 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Per our Trends tool, when has been at a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FD or higher, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations an impressive 72.7 percent of the time and has averaged a +3.98 Plus/Minus. Of all the guys mentioned above — Curry, Booker, and Beal — Smart is projected for the lowest ownership on FD at 13-16 percent.
Small Forwards
Against two cupcake matchups lately, Gordon Hayward has been very disappointing:
That said, the SF position isn’t exactly loaded with high-ceiling options, and Hayward certainly has upside against the Kings and Arron Afflalo, who ranks 93rd out of 97 eligible SGs this season with an awful -2.53 DRPM.
In two meetings against them this year, Hayward has averaged 39.7 FD points and a large +6.72 Plus/Minus. Rodney Hood did not play in either of those contests, and he, along with Joe Johnson, is questionable today with a sore right knee. If Hood is unable to go, Hayward certainly will see a bump in usage . . .
. . . and Joe Ingles will likely slide into the starting spot. And, in case you’re wondering, Jingles wasn’t too shabby in those first two games either:
If Hood is unable to go, Jingles is worth a look only on FD, where his near-minimum $3,800 price tag comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
He was a something of a throw-in during the Serge Ibaka-to-Toronto trade, but Terrence Ross is actually starting and playing very well for Orlando:
He has seen massive minute totals lately . . .
. . . and that is with C.J. Watson back in the rotation. He’s been using a high number of possessions — he’s been at nine or more field-goal attempts in each of his last four games — and could get some room to operate against Beal, who according to DRPM is the Wizards’ weakest link defensively in their superb starting lineup.
Ross is very cheap on FD compared to DK: His $4,500 FD salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He needs only 17.6 FD points to hit value, and he has been at 25 or higher in most of his games as a member of the Magic this year.
And perhaps the most consistent SF in the slate is T.J. Warren, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaged a nice +3.95 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s been particularly efficient scoring the ball lately . . .
. . . and has averaged a robust +5.68 FD Plus/Minus on 78.6 percent Consistency since the beginning of February.
You’ve probably noticed a trend by now, but here we go again: Warren is underpriced on FD, where his $5,500 price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Again, guys with high FD Bargain Ratings have been incredibly valuable lately:
If you weight FD Bargain Rating strongly in your Player Model, you will likely build good lineups at this point of the season.
Power Forwards
If you want to pay up at PF today, you’ll have to really pay up: Anthony Davis‘ price tag of $11,200 FD is $4,400 higher than the salary of any other PF. On DK, if you exclude his teammate in DeMarcus Cousins, who is PF/C eligible, Davis’ $10,100 price tag sits $3,600 higher than any other PF’s salary. That said, it’s hard to find a reason to fade him: He’s crushed lately, even with the high-usage Cousins now in town.
The reeling Pelicans are desperate to make the playoffs, which is why Brow is playing close to 40 minutes (or sometimes more). And I say all this before even mentioning that Davis is playing the Lakers, who rank seventh in pace, averaging 100.7 possessions/48, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.4 points/100. He predictably dominated them in their first two meetings this year:
He is a rare player in this slate with a 99 percent DK Bargain Rating.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle have both been a bit inconsistent lately, but that’s fine when you possess high ceilings like they do. Randle, for example, put up only 24.9 FD points on Friday versus the Celtics, but he dropped 62.6 in the game before that against the Hornets:
He does have a tough matchup against the new-look Pelicans frontcourt, but he did show upside against them already once this year.
Likewise, Gordon has a tough matchup against a good Wizards team that now ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.1 points/100. That said, he is coming off a great 34.5-point FD outing on Friday versus an equally tough Miami defense, and he’s had success against the Wizards this season:
At only $5,200 FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating, Gordon is certainly worth a look in all contest formats.
And don’t sleep on Enes Kanter, who despite struggling against the Mavericks specifically this year . . .
. . . has crushed other poor rebounding teams:
The Mavericks rank dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.5 percent of the available boards on the year. That number will likely come up with Nerlens Noel in town now, but Kanter certainly still has nice upside in this matchup.
Centers
Speaking of Noel, he put up a monster game on Friday against a brutal Memphis defense, scoring 46.8 DK points in 35.4 minutes of action on 15 real points and 17 rebounds. Oklahoma City ranks second on the year in rebound rate, grabbing 52.8 percent of the available boards, but they’ve been somewhat susceptible to big games from centers lately:
Most recently, new Portland big man Jusuf Nurkic put up 55.5 DK points on 18 real points, 12 boards, six assists, five blocks, and two steals. Don’t expect an explosion like that from Nerlens, but he does have immense defensive upside and is especially cheap on DK, where his $5,400 price tag comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Alan “Big Sauce” Williams has certainly not disappointed lately:
He has averaged an impressive +6.90 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five. He has easily double-doubled in three of his last four games and actually got up to 29.5 minutes on Friday versus the Thunder. He will probably be more in the mid-20s range today, but that may be all he needs against a Celtics squad that ranks 27th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.1 percent of the available boards. Big Sauce is only $5,400 on DK, where he comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.74 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s currently the No. 1 player in the DK Phan Model.
And finally, let’s not forget about DeMarcus Cousins, who showed his upside last game by putting up 52.8 DK points in a massive 42.8 minutes against the Spurs. He scored just 19 points but he pulled down a whopping 23 rebounds. The Lakers are a bottom-10 rebounding team this season, grabbing only 49.4 percent of the available boards, and Boogie has the potential to absolutely dominate this Lakers frontcourt.
The Lakers are the fourth-worst team this season against opposing centers . . .
. . . and Boogie has dominated them already three times this year, scoring 72.5 DK points in his most recent contest.
Good luck!
News Updates
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