Sunday brings another divided slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The former begins theirs at 6pm ET and includes the five night games. The latter begins theirs at 3:30pm and includes only the five games between 3:30 and 6pm ET. For this breakdown, any player 3:30pm on is fair game. Let’s jump straight into positions since we have very few overlapping games today.
Point Guards
Jrue Holiday is only in the DraftKings main slate, and he will be a popular option because 1) he just dropped 44.25 DraftKings points in 38.4 minutes against the Rockets on Friday, and 2) he’s playing the Denver Nuggets, who remain the league’s worst team versus opposing point guards:
Of course, he is not without risk: When sharing the court this season with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, his usage rate has dropped by 2.5 percent down to 21.8 percent, and his assist rate has dropped by a whopping 7.8 percent. He’s averaging an impressive 1.08 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but he drops down to just 0.84 DraftKings points/minute with those guys on the floor. Friday’s game showed that he still has a ceiling — and this is the Nuggets we’re talking about here — but there is certainly risk.
One additional factor in his favor is that he’s been playing huge minutes and the Pelicans and Nuggets are in a battle for the Western Conference’s eighth seed. This game matters (at least to the players).
Jeff Teague is in both slates and has been playing excellent basketball lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, although the last two games have been easy matchups against the Nuggets and Celtics, both of whom have terrible PG defense. Thankfully, he has another great matchup today against a Philadelphia team that ranks fifth in pace on the season, averaging 101.1 points per 100 possessions, and 13th defensively, although that oversells them: Without Joel Embiid on the floor, they’ve still allowed 111.3 points/100. That would rank just behind the Lakers for the worst defense in the league. In two games against the 76ers this season, Teague has averaged 36.55 FanDuel points and a massive +11.91 Plus/Minus.
If you want to pay up for a PG, Damian Lillard gets the Lakers, who rank sixth in pace, averaging 101.0 possessions/48, and 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.2 points/100. You might think you should be worried about a blowout — and perhaps you should — but the spread is currently just six points in favor of the visiting Blazers.
Lillard has been on fire lately, averaging a +5.65 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games, and even when he plays “abbreviated” minutes — he got only 29.0 and 30.7 in the last two — he can still dominate: He scored 46.5 and 47.5 DraftKings points in those contests. The Lakers’ backcourt of Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell, while fun offensively, might be the worst defensive backcourt in the league. Lillard could eat in this one.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
And that means you should probably also consider C.J. McCollum, who doesn’t have great Consistency marks against the Lakers this season . . .
. . . although that’s a bit misleading. At just $7,400 on DraftKings, he is cheaper than he’s been in the first three meetings against the Lakers:
If you adjust his production for today’s salary, he’s averaged a +4.60 Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency. That’s not too bad, and especially considering the amount of upside he has against a tanking Lakers squad. The Blazers are on a back-to-back, but both Lillard and McCollum played just 29 minutes last night. Lillard had this to say, per the Portland Tribune: “I told CJ they robbed him of another 40-point game tonight. But it was good to get that rest.” McCollum was 11-of-13 in his short stint and could certainly replicate that production again today.
James Harden is available only on FanDuel today and is about as hot a player you’ll find in DFS: He’s averaged a ridiculous +9.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
It took a little while for the usage dynamic to shake out after the Rockets acquired Lou Williams at the trade deadline, but Harden has now gone for 63-plus FanDuel points and 38-plus real points in five of his last six games. It certainly seems like Harden is pushing to be the MVP of the league, and that storyline will be especially prevalent today in his matchup against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. All that said, Harden has struggled at times this year against elite wing defender Andre Roberson:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
On the other side of that game sits Victor Oladipo, who has had success in this rivalry this year:
Over the past three games against the Rockets, Dipo has averaged 32.6 FanDuel points and a +9.13 Plus/Minus. Further, he’s still likely underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating; he requires just 24.2 fantasy points to hit value today. In a slightly larger sample of games, Dipo has averaged 29.18 FanDuel points and a nice 77.8 percent Consistency Rating in nine ‘pace-up’ games. The Thunder play about 1.7 possessions per 48 minutes slower than the Rockets this season.
Small Forwards
Playoff Paul George is good at basketball: Over his last 10 games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of them and has averaged a robust +7.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
He has produced in all kinds of matchups lately . . .
. . . and has an easy one today against a Philly team that plays fast and again has essentially the league’s worst defense without Embiid on the floor. He’s still very underpriced compared to his recent production — his $8,800 FanDuel salary requires just 36.49 points to hit value — and he’s gone for an average of 43.95 points in two meetings against the 76ers this season. The matchup against elite defender Robert Covington isn’t ideal . . .
. . . but George’s salary is just too low compared to his current minutes and usage rate. He leads all SFs with 13 FanDuel Pro Trends. (He’s available in both main slates today and is also affordable on DraftKings at just $8,700.)
George: DFS Scouting Report
As good as George has been lately, Jimmy Butler has been right there with him: He’s averaged a +5.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last seven games.
He’s gone for at least 44 FanDuel points in each of his last five games — he’s gone for 64-plus in two of those — and he continues to crush without fellow wing Dwyane Wade on the floor. Per the NBA On/Off tool, Butler has averaged 50.67 FanDuel points and a +13.3 Plus/Minus in 38.7 minutes per game sans Wade this year:
He has struggled against the Bucks this season . . .
. . . but Wade played in all of those games. This is certainly a different situation.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
If you want to pay down on DraftKings, it’ll possibly come down to guys like E’Twaun Moore, Tony Allen, and Brandon Ingram. Moore and Allen are both $3,800 and have similar minute projections; the biggest difference between the two is that Allen is facing the Warriors, who rank first in defensive efficiency, allowing just 101.0 points/100, whereas Moore faces the Nuggets, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing a putrid 110.6 points/100. For an almost min-priced player, Moore hasn’t been terrible this year in pace-up games:
Ingram is the most expensive of the three, but he’s also hit value in eight of his last 10 games. He’s averaging a terrible 0.64 DraftKings points per minute, but he could legitimately get up to 40 minutes. Before Friday’s dud against the Timberwolves, Ingram had taken double-digit shots in each of his last five games:
Power Forwards
Jahlil Okafor has been ruled out with a sore right knee, which means that Richaun Holmes should again be an incredibly popular play. Without Okafor, Embiid (injured), Nerlens Noel (traded), or Ersan Ilysova (traded), the 76ers have only three active big men in Holmes, Dario Saric, and Shawn Long. Without those four big men listed above, Holmes has averaged 24.9 FanDuel points and a +5.3 Plus/Minus in 29.1 minutes per game:
Long did steal some production last game — he went for 30.9 FanDuel points in 19.25 minutes of action — but Holmes is still the safer bet to see steady minutes, and especially in a tough matchup against the Pacers. Holmes is a much better value on FanDuel today, where his reasonable $5,600 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Indiana is weakest at the big men positions:
I have no clue if Noah Vonleh is any good at basketball, but the more important factor is that 1) the Blazers seem to think so, or at least they’re giving him minutes that indicate as much, and 2) he’s playing the Lakers, who rank sixth in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.2 points/100. Over his last 10 games, Vonleh has averaged a +3.50 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency:
That is not especially exciting production — he hasn’t gone over 23 FanDuel points in his last 15 games — but he’s also just $3,800 and has a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Again, players this season with high Bargain Ratings on FanDuel have been very valuable players:
And if you want to pay up at the position, Anthony Davis gets Denver, who play at a very fast pace and own one of the league’s worst defenses. He has taken a big usage hit since Boogie came to town — his usage rate with Cousins on the floor has dropped by a whopping 4.5 percent down to 28.5 percent — but he’s still been able to put up some large games. He just dropped 63.5 DraftKings points in 40.87 minutes on Friday against the Rockets thanks to 33 points and 16 rebounds, and he did this against the Nuggets in their first meeting this year:
I’m certainly not projecting that game again, but it does show Davis’ immense upside — with or without Boogie on the floor with him.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Al Horford has quietly been a beast lately, averaging a ridiculous +9.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He’s boosted his assist rate lately . . .
. . . and the Celtics have predictably played very well, winning six of their last seven contests. Today Horford gets a nice matchup against a Miami Heat team that seems tough — they rank fifth in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing just 104.0 points/100 — but they’ve actually been below-average against opposing centers, as evidenced by Horford’s +1.84 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel. In two games against them this season, he’s averaged 38.3 FanDuel points and a +6.20 Plus/Minus:
He’s a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he leads all centers with 10 Pro Trends.
On the other side of that matchup sits Hassan Whiteside, who will play despite dealing with a sprained ankle recently. He’s been incredible over the last 10 games, averaging a +5.78 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency:
I mentioned Miami’s struggles with big men above, but Boston hasn’t been much better: Whiteside has a nice +1.28 DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus today, and he has a lot of upside against a Celtics squad that ranks 26th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing just 48.4 percent of the boards. He’s been pretty good against them this year, putting up 50-plus DraftKings points in two of three games and averaging 43.33 DraftKings points on the year:
Unlike Horford, Whiteside is a better value on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with 13 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
If you need a lower-owned pivot, Nikola Jokic has been extremely volatile as a DFS asset lately . . .
. . . but he showed his ceiling last game, putting up 60.75 DraftKings points in 34.38 minutes of action against a tough Pacers squad. He’ll have his hands full again today against Davis and Boogie (who is questionable), but he’s shown high ceilings in all kinds of matchups this year:
If Boogie is ruled out, Davis will likely become the slate’s chalkiest player; Jokic’s ownership will go down in that case, making him an intriguing GPP pivot.
Good luck!
News Updates
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