Sunday brings a five-game main slate at 6pm ET. Because it’s a small slate, let’s jump straight into positions.
Point Guards
D’Angelo Russell is finally seeing 30-plus minutes, and he’s been excellent when given that run:
He has now exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging an impressive +7.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time:
Russell gets a Philly team today that has struggled without rim protector Joel Embiid on the floor: Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers have allowed 112.2 points per 100 possessions without their stud big man. For reference, that would be easily the worst mark in the league over a full season. Russell remains underpriced at $6,900 on FD, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends. (Pro subscribers can see Pro Trends and other metrics for our highest-rated players in the Player Models.)
Derrick Rose put up a dud yesterday, scoring only 14.4 FD points in 26.9 minutes against the Pistons. His minutes have been volatile lately . . .
. . . but none of that matters today. He’s playing the Brooklyn Nets, who rank first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions. Although Rose struggled against them in their first meeting this season (per our Trends tool) . . .
. . . overall they’re still the second-worst team against opposing PGs:
Rose is on a back-to-back, but he’s been surprisingly good in this situation this year:
Those guys are nice values, but the expensive Damian Lillard owns the position’s highest projected ceiling against the Suns, who are also enticing as a DFS matchup. They rank third in pace, averaging 102.2 possessions/48, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points/100. Phoenix has been the fourth-worst team this season against opposing PGs . . .
. . . and Lillard leads all PGs in the main slate with a +3.72 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD. Lillard has posted a +4.97 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, and he’s averaged 42.5 FD points in two meetings against the Suns this season:
Given his reasonable $9,000 price tag, he needs only 37.4 points to hit value.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker and C.J McCollum have both played well of late and face each other in a juicy game with a massive 229.5-point Vegas total. They both played yesterday and posted FD Plus/Minus values of +18.9 and +14.4 in fairly tough matchups against the Mavericks and Wizards. Booker ($6,200) is cheaper, but McCollum ($7,200) has the easier matchup, given Phoenix’s defense and especially Booker’s (via our Matchups tool):
As you might expect, McCollum has absolutely dominated this matchup previously, scoring an average of 44.3 FD points and posting a +14.8 Plus/Minus in two meetings (and, yes, Dame did play in those two):
Booker hasn’t done quite as well . . .
. . . but there’s still reason for optimism given his recent play:
Still, James Harden has the position’s highest ceiling by over 20 FD points. He is pricey at $11,800 DK and $11,700 FD, although he’s cheaper than he was earlier in the season:
He has regained some of the usage he lost when Lou Williams came to town, and it’s not ridiculous to think he’ll be extra locked in against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. In their first meeting this year, Harden went for 72.9 FD points.
Both McCollum and Booker might be better values, but Harden certainly has access to a ceiling no other SG has, and that’s especially the case in this high-total game.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
A potential punt play, Allen Crabbe is way too cheap at $3,900 DK and $3,800 FD. He’s been very solid lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, and he’s scored at least 26.0 DK points in his last three.
He has approached 30 minutes of playing time lately, and he should do so again against a Phoenix team that has been especially bad against guards and wings:
Small Forwards
It is very hard to fade this version of LeBron James:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +7.06 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He’s playing ridiculous minutes of late — he’s been over 37 in each of his last seven games — and he hasn’t dipped below 55 FD points in March.
Over the past three years, LeBron hasn’t been an underdog nearly as many times (22) as he’s been a favorite, but he’s predictably played well in those circumstances:
LeBron is about as safe as it gets for a DFS player today.
James: DFS Scouting Report
T.J. Warren has been an amazing DFS asset of late, posting a ridiculous +8.64 FD Plus/Minus with a perfect Consistency Rating over the past 10 games.
In the first two games against the Blazers this year, he posted a dud and exploded for 41.4 points.
There is a little risk here — he’s somewhat reliant on rebounding and the Blazers have posted a 53.4 percent rebound rate so far with newly-acquired center Jusuf Nurkic on the court (that would be almost first in the league over the season) — but Warren’s cheap at $6,000 given his recent play.
Carmelo Anthony might be a popular option today despite playing terribly lately . . .
. . . and against a bad Nets team twice this season:
Anthony: DFS Scouting Report
Instead, look at Robert Covington, who is $200 cheaper and in an equally good matchup versus the Lakers, who rank fifth in pace, averaging 100.8 possessions/48, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 points/100. Covington should come with lower ownership and can certainly dominate this matchup against rookie Brandon Ingram.
Pro subscribers can review the ownership for Covington (and other players) in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Power Forwards
In that same game between the Lakers and 76ers are two very intriguing PF options in Dario Saric and Julius Randle. Saric continues to play excellent basketball, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 and averaging a +6.19 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
That said, Randle has been just as good (if not better), averaging an +8.60 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10.
He has posted high ceiling games lately, including a 48.6-point FD outing just two games ago against the slow-paced Mavericks. He is a triple-double threat given his current role in the offense, and he should be able to play well against a 76ers team that has the league’s worst defense without Embiid. Heck, even with Embiid playing, Randle has shown he can dominate this matchup:
Both Saric and Randle are underpriced on FD, where their salaries of $7,600 and $6,700 come with Bargain Ratings of 90 and 97 percent. As mentioned in previous NBA Breakdowns, targeting guys with high FD Bargain Ratings is a nice move . . .
. . . especially toward the end of the year:
As a potential pivot play, Kristaps Porzingis is at a similar price and has an equally great matchup against the Nets, who, again, rank first in pace and bottom-five in defense efficiency. Despite Melo’s struggles against the Nets this season, Porzingis has dominated:
He has been a bit up and down lately . . .
. . . but he’s playing high minutes now and has typically thrived in fast-paced games:
He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends, and he also has a high Bargain Rating (95 percent), yet he’ll likely come with lower ownership than Saric and Randle.
Centers
Like Warren, Alan Williams is a bit risky: He’s reliant on rebounding for DFS production, and the Blazers have essentially been the best rebounding team in the league with Nurkic in town. Still, it’s hard to dismiss this:
Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaged a +9.06 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He continues to play fewer than 30 minutes, but he’s also averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute on the season. He is still way too cheap on FD, where his $5,600 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a +3.27 Opponent Plus/Minus. Again, guys with 90-plus percent Bargain Ratings on FD are valuable given DK’s strict pricing.
The Pacers have been about average against opposing centers this year . . .
. . . but they are susceptible to giving up big games, considering they rank just 26th in rebound rate on the season, grabbing only 48.3 percent of the available boards. That is a positive situation for a dominant rebounder, which Hassan Whiteside can be. He was earlier in the season against the Pacers:
He has averaged 52.4 DK points and a +13.98 Plus/Minus against them in two games this year, and he remains cheap on DK, where his $7,800 price tag comes with a position-high 12 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Whiteside: DFS Scouting Report
A contrarian option, Brook Lopez hasn’t exactly lit the DFS world on fire lately . . .
. . . but he’s been steady, averaging a +4.45 Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over the last 10 games. He’s also had his salary drop by $600 DK over that time frame. He faces the Knicks today, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.7 points/100, and who have been the second-worst team in the league against opposing centers:
He’s a nice GPP option on DK, where his low $6,500 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
