Sunday brings a six-game main slate at 5pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
This game features a team in the Grizzlies that ranks 28th in pace, averaging 95.4 possessions per 48 minutes, and fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing only 102.9 points per 100 possessions, yet it boasts the highest Vegas total of the slate.
Denver is a mirror image of Memphis: The Nuggets rank fifth in pace, averaging 100.8 possessions/48, and dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.8 points/100. Last year, I wrote about this particular unstoppable-force-versus-immovable-object debate. In short, fast-paced teams are greatly affected by opponent pace, whereas slow-paced teams typically are not. Here’s the data table from the piece:
Considering how well just about every position has done against the defensively-inept Nuggets, just about any Memphis player projected for near 30 minutes is in consideration . . .
. . . especially Mike Conley, as the Nuggets are awful against point guards. That said, these Grizzlies overall have been very unimpressive as DFS assets this month (per our Trends tool):
The data says you should absolutely target the Nuggets every slate, so guys like Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and even guys like JaMychal Green and Vince Carter are worthy of looks, but their recent production doesn’t inspire confidence. For what it’s worth, here’s how they’ve done in the two prior games versus the Nuggets:
On the other side, here’s how the Nuggets fared in their first two games against the Grizz:
The point guards — specifically Emmanuel Mudiay (the starter at the time) and Jamal Murray — had success, whereas several of the big guys struggled. However, this is a different version of the Nuggets: They run (or at least they should be running) things through stud big man Nikola Jokic. He’s been awful in his two games since the All-Star break . . .
. . . but, although that’s concerning (especially since he’s played fewer minutes than newly-acquired Mason Plumlee), this trend is not sustainable. If the Nuggets are to make the Western Conference Playoffs, Jokic will need to play often and well. This game against a slow-paced and excellent Grizzlies defense probably isn’t the time to take a stand, especially since Jokic is $9,800 on FanDuel, but this situation will likely correct itself at some point.
You probably shouldn’t look to the Nuggets for your cash-game needs, but a guy like Gary Harris is still fine in guaranteed prize pools. He has been excellent of late . . .
. . . exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of 10 games and averaging a +5.01 FD Plus/Minus over that time. The shooting guard spot isn’t strong today, and Harris will likely be low-owned. He’s still cheap at $5,000 on FD, where he has seven Pro Trends and a position-high 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Point Guards
In his last game, Russell Westbrook shot only 4-of-18 from the field and still exceeded expectations on his massive $12,700 salary by 10.48 FD points. He finished the game with 17 real points, 18 rebounds, 17 assists, and three steals. That’s the safety of Russ: Even when one part of his game isn’t going on a particular night, he’s still able to rack up fantasy points in a variety of other ways. He’s expensive again today at $12,800, and he gets a New Orleans team that certainly hasn’t figured things out since acquiring All-Star big man DeMarcus Cousins over the break. Russ put up an average of 66.92 DK points in the first three meetings against the Pelicans this year . . .
. . . and they’re arguably worse on defense right now.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Kyle Lowry is questionable today versus the Trail Blazers with a wrist injury, and coach Dwane Casey said this on Friday: “I don’t know how long he’s going to be out. It’s not a one-day thing.” That sounds fairly pessimistic, which means that backup PG Cory Joseph could be in line for another start. In Friday’s tilt, he started very slowly but ended up with 26.2 FD points in 36.4 minutes of action. He’s been an excellent DFS asset in the two games starting for Lowry this year (per our On/Off tool) . . .
. . . and should be chalky today at only $4,200 FD if he gets the start, especially against a Portland team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.8 points/100.
Chris Paul returned to the Clippers lineup on Friday after missing 14 games with a sprained left thumb. He didn’t have his best game, scoring only 31.7 FD points and shooting 6-of-14 from the field, but it was against the Spurs. What was more telling is that he played 32.9 minutes right off the bat. Today’s matchup is certainly easier against a Charlotte team that has been below average against PGs this year:
He’s fairly-price at $8,600 FD, but he could be a bit underowned today, as his salary is comparable to that of Conley (vs. the Nuggets) and Damian Lillard (33 real points last game and against a potentially Lowry-less Raps squad). People may elect to wait-and-see on CP3, which means it’s time to pounce in GPPs. #rhyming
Shooting Guards
In two games without Lowry, DeMar DeRozan has absolutely crushed, averaging 56.1 DK points and a +17.6 Plus/Minus. He has averaged a ridiculous 44.5 percent usage rate in those contests and has even posted a 26.8 percent assist rate. Against a bad Portland defense, DeRozan is imminently rosterable if Lowry is out.
Again, the SG position isn’t loaded today. And while a guy like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hasn’t been consistent lately — he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in only four of his last 10 games — he has shown a high ceiling:
He put up 48.3 FD points thanks to 33 real points and seven 3-pointers just last game against the Hornets, and he certainly has a winnable matchup against a Boston team that has a lot of solid wing defenders but interestingly has been poor defending spot-up shooters.
KCP is only $5,300 on FD, where he has eight Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Victor Oladipo has been ruled out with back spasms, and we’re currently projecting Alex Abrines to get the start alongside Westbrook:
Abrines played well on Friday in a similar role, putting up 21.4 FD points in 29.2 minutes of action. He scored 19 real points and took a whopping 11 3-pointers in that game. That seems a bit unsustainable, but he should get a solid number of minutes and the Thunder are really hurting for outside shooters to surround Westbrook. Abrines secured only two rebounds and zero assists/steals/blocks, so he’s very scoring-dependent, but a guy getting potentially 30-ish minutes at only $3,500 DK has to be considered. That said, there’s definitely merit to fading him in tournaments because of his very low floor.
Small Forwards
Gordon Hayward ($7,800) is the most expensive SF option by $1,400 FD, but he’s been very good outside of a dud against the Clippers right before the All-Star break:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and has averaged a nice +5.65 FD Plus/Minus over that time. His matchup versus a hot Wizards team isn’t ideal, but he’s clearly the class of the position today: His mark of 1.01 FD points per minutes over the past year easily dwarfs that of any other SF today. There could be room to operate here:
If you want a mid-range guy, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has scored 30-plus FD points in each of his last three games . . .
. . . and has averaged a +3.40 Plus/Minus over his last 10. He’s at his best when he’s rebounding the ball, and he seems to have renewed that part of his game, grabbing 12, 14, and 14 boards over his last three — and one of those came against Andre Drummond and an excellent Detroit rebounding team. Surprisingly, the Clippers haven’t been great in that regard despite starting two ‘traditional’ bigs in DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin: They rank only 16th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing 49.9 percent of the available boards.
Marcus Morris is an intriguing pivot from MKG, who is currently the No. 1 DK SF in the Phan Model and is $400 cheaper than Morris. The Detroit big man has been nothing if not consistent lately . . .
. . . exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.68 Plus/Minus over that time. He’s been playing huge minutes — he’s gone 37.6, 35.6, and 40.0 over his last three — and will likely be around that range today against a tough Boston team. MKG is currently projected for very chalky 31-35 percent ownership on DK, and Morris currently sits at only 13-16 percent despite having a similar projection. Pivoting to him could pay off in GPPs.
Power Forwards
The Pelicans roster is still a work in progress, but last night showed that Anthony Davis still has immense upside on a night-to-night basis despite the addition of a high-usage big like DeMarcus Cousins.
Brow dropped 63.5 DK points in 39.2 minutes of action against the Mavericks, and more importantly he took a whopping 34 shots. The Pelicans will have to figure out how to get all of these guys to mesh together, but don’t expect Brow suddenly not to shoot the ball. He does have a tough one-on-one matchup against center Steven Adams . . .
. . . but this much usage at only $9,500 DK is hard to pass up.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Blake Griffin is only $400 cheaper than Brow on FD and is coming off an excellent game in which he scored 47.3 FD points in 38.5 minutes against the Spurs. He actually has positive correlation with CP3 . . .
. . . and could certainly benefit today from CP3’s plus matchup against a Hornets team that struggles to defend PGs. Further, Charlotte is missing its best interior defender in Cody Zeller, who remains out. Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams will continue to start, and they aren’t a physically imposing duo down low.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
As cheap options, the Detroit PFs, Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris, are intriguing against Boston at only $4,900 and $5,600. Leuer has been the more consistent DFS asset of the two lately . . .
. . . whereas Tobias has flashed higher ceilings:
Both exceeded salary-based expectations last game, and Tobias went for 38.9 FD points in 37.2 minutes of action. Detroit has been much better at home this year . . .
. . . and Leuer and Tobias have posted +2.9 and +2.7 DK Plus/Minus values at the Palace.
Centers
Despite Frank Kaminsky‘s defensive issues discussed above, there’s no denying his DFS value of late without Zeller:
Over his last 10 games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven and averaged an absurd +11.67 FD Plus/Minus. As the guy down low for the Hornets, Frank has flourished:
He’s still way underpriced at $5,900 on FD, where he has a position-high 12 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
And just $400 below him sits Jusuf Nurkic, who put up 40.9 FD points in 34.5 minutes and looks to be Portland’s starting center for now.
It remains to be seen how the new-look Raptors will use rim protector Serge Ibaka, but for now it seems he will play PF alongside Jonas Valanciunas, who is certainly not a good defensive big. Nurkic has double-double upside again today and is in play in all contest formats at only $5,600 DK and $5,500 FD.
Rudy Gobert is much cheaper on DK ($7,100) than he is on FD, as evidenced by his 90 percent Bargain Rating on the former site. He would definitely be in the cash-game mix if it weren’t for the presence of Kaminsky and Nurkic: Gobert has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and averaged a +5.35 DK Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of his last six games, and he certainly has that upside again today against a Washington team that ranks 24th in defensive rebound rate, grabbing only 75.5 percent of the available boards. Gobert is projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership and could be a sneaky GPP pivot from the chalky cheap guys.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
