Sunday brings a four-game main slate that begins at 3:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
Vegas: 212 over/under, Spurs -8.5
The Spurs have been without Pau Gasol for the past 12 games. They’ve ranked first in Defensive Efficiency during that span, allowing 98.5 points per 100 possessions, and they’ve jumped from 27th in pace (96.03 possessions per 48 minutes) through the first 41 games to 13th in pace (99.96 possessions per 48 minutes) over the last 12.
Our On/Off tool provides an overview of individual performances sans Gasol:
Kawhi Leonard has been the clear beneficiary of Gasol’s absence. Although he’s missed time with a sore right hand that might still be bothersome, he’s provided at least 40 DraftKings points in 12 of the past 13 games. He leads the small forward position with 100 percent Consistency over the past month, and when playing the first game of a back-to-back set on the road Leonard has averaged 47.44 DK points this season.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
LaMarcus Aldridge has been much more attractive on the road (per our Trends tool) . . .
. . . and power forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes when facing the Knicks this year have registered the highest DK Plus/Minus (+4.19). He doesn’t offer a lofty ceiling worthy of excessive guaranteed prize pool exposure, as he’s priced close to his recent average DK production, but the matchup warrants at least some cash game consideration.
Danny Green has double-digit field goal attempts on five occasions this season. Three of those instances occurred over the past nine games. His player card provides a quick recap of his recent production sans Gasol. He costs less than $4,000 on FD and DK, and one of his three career double-doubles was recorded against the Knicks. It doesn’t hurt that shooting guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Knicks this season have averaged a +4.36 DK Plus/Minus on a league-high 72 percent Consistency.
Coach Gregg Popovich is lurking in the wings as the Spurs play the first game of a back-to-back set. Fortunately, the Spurs play early enough that adjustments can be made for resting players.
Joakim Noah has been ruled out of today’s game. After coach Jeff Hornacek bashed his starters’ defensive effort in the team’s 131-123 loss to the Nuggets on Friday, it’s anyone’s guess who will start for the injured Noah. Kyle O’Quinn and Willy Hernangomez have been splitting center minutes with Kristaps Porzingis, but coach Hornacek decided to start Brandon Jennings in the most recent game, which reduced Hernangomez to third-string center and nine total minutes. Hernangomez was still productive in limited action, offering nearly 2.0 DK points per minute in his nine-minute stint. Hornacek doesn’t adhere to a static rotation structure, increasing for the bench players.
Carmelo Anthony will likely be guarded by Leonard. When the two shared the court last season, Anthony made 9-of-31 shots (29 percent), which could make a leverage play out of Porzingis, whose salary has dropped to a season-low $6,100 on DK and $6,400 on FD. The Warriors’ Kevin Durant leads all small forwards with a +14.31 FD Plus/Minus against the Spurs this season. Aside from that performance, small forwards projected to play 18 minutes have salvaged a -0.48 FD Plus/Minus on 43.5 percent Consistency against the Spurs. Conversely, Porzingis averaged 39.75 FD points in two games against the Spurs last season. Shunning Anthony becomes more difficult on such a short slate with limited options at small forward, but his matchup could lead to additional usage for Porzingis.
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 207.5 over/under, Timberwolves -2
The value on this slate may hinge on the statuses of Dwyane Wade, who is presently probable, and Jimmy Butler, who has been a game-time decision with a heel contusion for the last three games. It’s possible that Butler could suit up specifically because his former coach, Tom Thibodeau, mans the Timberwolves sidelines now. However, Butler looked plenty limited during Friday’s loss, as did Wade, who was dealing with an illness that held him out of Wednesday’s loss. Butler is the second-most expensive small forward on the slate, but his salary is close enough to Kawhi’s to pay up for the safety.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Wade is dealing with a right wrist contusion, but if Butler is ruled out then Wade will instantly become an elite cash option. In the two games he’s played without Butler, Wade has averaged 42.5 DK points in 33.3 minutes. Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez lead the team in usage rate differential when Butler sits, and Michael Carter-Williams could work himself into the starting lineup with Paul Zipser (ankle) currently listed as doubtful.
The Timberwolves have been without Zach LaVine the past four games. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have led the team in usage rate, average Plus/Minus, and average DFS production. They are elite plays at their positions, mainly because of the reduced options. Any time Towns plays at the Target Center, he’s a lock for cash games.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Wiggins’ increased role in the offense with LaVine out has led to an +8.7 DK Plus/Minus, and the team defense has been so bad that the opposition hangs around long enough to ensure normal minutes for the Timberwolves starters, a group that leads the NBA with an average of 34.6 minutes.
Ricky Rubio is trickier to peg since coach Thibodeau benched him most of the second half two games ago in favor of Tyus Jones. As long as Rubio is at home, he’s in play in GPPs as a solid three-man stack with Towns and Wiggins.
Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
Vegas: 211 over/under, Raptors -6.5
How have the Pistons performed on the road this season? Not well.
How have the core rotation players done? Aside from Jon Leuer, they’ve teetered on neutrality.
Patrick Patterson has been listed as questionable. He offers a cheap alternative at power forward if he’s cleared to play with no restrictions. However, his minutes were capped the last time he returned from a left knee injury, and it’s fair to assume 20-25 minutes will be the max unless coach Dwane Casey stipulates otherwise.
Jonas Valanciunas has scored more than 30 points twice in his career. Both instances occurred against the Pistons, and his career-high of 32 points was recorded in the season opener back in October. Valanciunas’ track record against the Pistons may help elucidate Kyle Lowry‘s struggles against them.
Here’s how Valanciunas has performed against all teams dating back to 2014-15.
Here’s a list of Lowry’ worst Plus/Minus performances over the same duration:
Lowry profiles as the chalk play at point guard today primarily due to the player pool. Valanciunas will likely go overlooked due to the depth at the position. The time to roster him is when the Raptors are Vegas favorites, as they are today.
Lowry’s historical struggles against the Pistons and his recent struggles from the field (22-of-66 over the past four games) point to a leverage play in DeMar DeRozan, who’ll likely be guarded by the Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I say likely because Marcus Morris was DeRozan’s primary defender in the season opener, a game in which he scored 40 points in three quarters. The shooting guard position is such a wasteland that DeRozan may end up being the chalk, but his salary doesn’t offer much wiggle room elsewhere. And the point guard position isn’t any better in terms of elite options.
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings
Vegas: 212.5 over/under, Kings -3.5
Tyreke Evans (ankle, probable), Terrence Jones (thumb, questionable), and E’Twaun Moore (personal, doubtful) are all on the Pelicans’ injury report. They were absent from the previous contest, and the production in that game was concentrated on two players: Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. In a game in which coach Alvin Gentry ran an eight-man rotation, Davis and Holiday each provided more than 50 DK points, and Solomon Hill missed a triple-double by three points, three assists, and four rebounds in 37 minutes.
Holiday is one of two expensive point guards on the slate, but he’s been stellar lately. He’s at least cheaper than Lowry on FD by $500, which can help mitigate Lowry’s struggles against the Pistons. Nonetheless, Holiday costs $400 more than Lowry on DK, which creates a pivot play.
Davis has struggled under two circumstances: When the Pelicans are on the road and when the Pelicans are underdogs. When the Pelicans are road underdogs, Davis averages 46.12 FD points, which is a shade below today’s salary-implied point total. In the event that Jones, Evans, and Moore are all ruled out, Davis will become an elite GPP option. However, we won’t know their statuses until after lineups lock for the main slate, which shifts focus to the cheaper Karl-Anthony Towns in cash games.
The Kings have been without Rudy Gay since January 20 (13 games). During that span, they have ranked 22nd in Defensive Rating and 27th in pace, and DeMarcus Cousins has averaged a 40.1 percent usage rate and 35.3 percent assist rate. Minutes and production outside of Cousins have been a crapshoot, but here’s how the team has stacked up over the past 13 games:
The Pelicans have ranked 29th in rebound rate since shifting Davis to starting center on December 26, and Cousins has pulled down double-digit rebounds in 13 of the past 14 games while missing a triple-double by three or fewer assists four times.
Cousins is in a great spot. He’s averaged 55.57 FD points in the last nine games against the Pelicans, and when the Kings have been favored over the past two seasons, Cousins has met salary-based expectations 81.0 percent of the time.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Darren Collison enters GPP territory with Ty Lawson presently questionable, especially on FD, where he offers a 99 percent Bargain Rating that will help his case in cash games if Lawson is ruled out prior to the main slate locking.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
