Reggie Jackson will make his season debut today, Joakim Noah could return to the Knicks’ lineup, and the Pacers could receive Paul George and CJ Miles back. Today’s four-game slate offers intrigue and despair. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook costs $12,800 on DraftKings. He failed to meet salary-based expectations both times he was listed at $12,900 this season. Nonetheless, Westbrook scored 85.25 DraftKings points against the Pelicans last season, and the Thunder have had three full days between games, providing Westbrook ample rest and recovery. He hasn’t made 40 percent of his shots in five straight games. Over that time, the Thunder have played in two overtime games and Westbrook has notched four consecutive triple-doubles. His salary isn’t much of a hindrance on FanDuel ($12,600); he’s exceeded today’s implied point total in eight straight games. That isn’t the case on DraftKings, but he’s not the injury risk that the stud power forward is on today’s slate.
Value
Elfrid Payton has dipped to a season-low $4,800 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel. The Pistons are one of two teams against which Payton has made at least half of his field goal attempts and 70 percent of his free throws in his career. In seven games against them, he’s averaged a +4.55 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Coming off the bench is not attractive, nor is the timeshare with D.J. Augustin, but there are very few cheap point guard options on the four-game slate. The salary gap is wide enough on FanDuel to choose Augustin over Payton and hope for 15 FanDuel points — a mark slightly below his 17.75 FanDuel points over the previous four contests.
Leverage Plays
Jeff Teague is slated to lose a share of the offense if George returns to the lineup on Sunday. Teague has notched at least eight assists in five of the past six games, and he recorded 30.5 DraftKings points in 25 minutes against the Clippers last Sunday. Teague will go overlooked in tournaments, judging by his projected ownership of 13-16 percent. Over the last 11 games, points guards have averaged a +3.46 Plus/Minus on DraftKings when facing the Clippers. News of George returning may not be known until game time, adding further uncertainty to the slate. When George is off the court, Teague’s usage rate increases 3.5 percent and his true shooting improves 8.7 percent.
The ultimate leverage play is Ish Smith. Now that Reggie Jackson is set to return, Smith becomes easily forgotten. However, Jackson’s playing time will be restricted to four to five minutes per quarter, permitting Smith to play his customary 29.6 minutes per game. When the Pistons and Magic faced each other earlier this season, Smith accrued 31.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. There’s quite a bit of risk in this move, however, since coach Stan Van Gundy could easily split backup point minutes between Smith and Beno Udrih.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guard is a barren wasteland today. There is no elite ‘Stud’ option waiting to be locked in. Victor Oladipo is the most expensive shooting guard on both sites, and he’s averaged the most points over the past month. He’s not a prototypical cash-game option, as his production has ebbed and flowed this season; his projected ceiling and floor remain comparable to cheaper options.
Values
Discounting the blowout loss to the Pacers last week, J.J. Redick has averaged 24.46 FanDuel points over the past three games. He rested on Friday, allowing Jamal Crawford to handle the load in the second unit with Raymond Felton in the starting lineup. Redick’s production is tied to his shot; right now, the shot is falling at 50 percent over the last five games.
It’s tougher to find a value play on DraftKings. You can go down to Garrett Temple at the bare minimum, or you can decide between Evan Fournier and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The latter two will likely guard each other, and Caldwell-Pope has been a lightning rod on offense and defense of late, handing out at least seven assists in two of the past five games. Caldwell-Pope is also cheaper, and his team is implied to score seven more points, via the Vegas dashboard. Neither is a true ‘Value’ play, but their salary provides more relief than Oladipo’s.
Leverage Play
Let’s get weird at shooting guard. Anthony Morrow costs the minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s played at least 19 minutes in five straight games. He’s second in the NBA in points per touch, and shooting guards have averaged a +1.23 Plus/Minus against the Pelicans this season. It’s a pure punt play on the off chance he lights up his former team.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George said the following regarding his availability for last Friday’s game:
“I was good enough to play, but I wasn’t at 100 percent. Being hurt and sitting out, little stuff like that nags on you. But that’s the only thing I’m hoping, that I can play without a tweak, where I have full strength where I can cut and be aggressive off the drive. That’s the only thing I’m concerned about.”
He’s currently listed as questionable after missing the past three games, but, because of the Pacers’ odd schedule, he’s had 10 consecutive days of rest. The matchup is a difficult one opposing Luc Mbah a Moute, who was able to limit LeBron James and Anthony Davis over the Clippers’ past two contests. The last time George returned early from the ankle injury, he played 38 minutes, so he’s not likely to have his minutes limited if he plays tonight. The Pacers are scheduled to play 3.5 hours after the main slate locks, making all available Pacers a risky play.
Values
Marcus Morris and Andre Roberson are two sub-$5,000 small forwards available on FanDuel. Morris leads the bunch in Projected Plus/Minus, and Roberson gets the check mark with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Morris already registered 29.1 FanDuel points against the Magic this season, and his implied point total today is only 18.93. Small forwards average a +1.83 Plus/Minus on FanDuel against the Pelicans this season, and Roberson has exceeded 20 FanDuel points in three of the past five games.
Leverage Play
Carmelo Anthony exceeded 44 FanDuel points in his last two games against the Kings. He’s implied to score 32.1 today. Rudy Gay is much cheaper on both platforms, and his production is a perfectly acceptable replacement to Anthony’s. Both the Knicks and Kings rank in the bottom-seven in defensive efficiency, but the Knicks have been worse. Now that I’ve made the case for Gay’s safety, let’s focus on Anthony’s 49.4-point ceiling — the best mark among available small forwards. When Anthony gets going, he’s capable of exceeding Gay’s highest mark this season of 50.4 FanDuel points.
Power Forward
Studs
At projected ownership of at least 41 percent in FanDuel and DraftKings GPPs, you won’t gain a substantial edge over the field by going back to Anthony Davis after his injury scare on Friday. He exited the loss with a right shoulder issue but eventually returned and played 32 minutes. He made less than half of his shot attempts for the first time in two weeks and attempted six free throws — his second-fewest attempts in a game in which he played at least 20 minutes. His implied point totals on both sites mirror his average actual points in six games against the Thunder, a team that’s allowed the most points in the paint and the most field goal attempts inside of five feet. Davis ranks behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo with 13.6 points in the paint per game, and he leads the league in points per game and free throws per game. Tempting fate in cash games doesn’t seem worth the risk, but, if you’re going to fade Westbrook, Davis’ matchup against a rookie offers plenty of upside.
Values
Tobias Harris has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games on FanDuel. Predictably, his highest usage rate this season came against the Magic (28.0 percent), when he recorded 32 DraftKings points. In three games against his former squad, Harris has averaged 28.83 FanDuel points, which is 5.51 points above his implied point total today. Power forwards have been prolific against the Magic this season, averaging a +1.28 Plus/Minus on DraftKings on 60 percent Consistency.
Leverage Play
Blake Griffin will get overlooked on FanDuel because most DFS players will construct lineups around Westbrook or Davis, and, if you go with Westbrook, the easy step is to pay the $7,500 for Kristaps Porzingis. Griffin is interesting because power forwards average a +1.44 Plus/Minus on FanDuel against the Pacers this season. Also, his projected ownership on FD (21-25 percent) is much lower than Porzingis’ or Davis’.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has averaged 50.98 FanDuel points in four previous meetings with the Knicks. He has failed to tally at least 51 FanDuel points one time over the past nine games this season, and the Knicks claim the fourth-worst defense. Additionally, the Knicks allow the most second chance points per game, and they’re second-worst in the league in defensive rebound percentage. Noah may return to the lineup on Sunday, and he has the worst defensive rating (110.3) of any player on the Knicks. Cousins’ Projected Plus/Minus leads all centers on FanDuel despite his season-high $10,900 salary.
Value
Since Bismack Biyombo joined the Magic’s starting lineup, six of the seven opposing centers to play at least 17 minutes have exceeded salary-based expectations; they’ve averaged a +9.81 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The sample is admittedly small, but that doesn’t mean we should immediately ignore opposing centers because Biyombo has played at least 32 minutes in four straight starts. The next center up is Andre Drummond. In the Pistons’ first meeting with the Magic this season, Drummond registered 12 points and 20 rebounds in 28 minutes. He’s averaged a +8.89 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in his last eight games against the Magic, and he leads all players with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.39 on FanDuel.
Leverage Play
Centers average a +3.26 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season when facing the Pacers, and during last Sunday’s blowout loss to the Pacers, DeAndre Jordan produced 31.8 FanDuel points. Because Cousins and Drummond are superior plays on a slate with little fanfare at the guard and wing spots, paying up for an elite center is the best way to minimize risk in cash games. Jordan relies on others to create his offense, but he should be able to take advantage of the Pacers’ third-lowest mark in defensive rebound percentage in the NBA.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
