Merry Christmas! This festive Sunday brings a five-game main slate at noon ET. Let’s jump in.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Vegas: 211 over/under, Celtics -2.5
Celtics fans dreamed of a lethal Isaiah Thomas–Al Horford pick-and-roll combination this summer, and that’s benefiting the former lately: Thomas has been red-hot in his last three games, posting 48.4, 42.7, and 61.6 FD points in that time. He’s expensive ($8,100 DK, $8,400 FD) because of his recent surge, but he gets a defender in Derrick Rose who owns a -1.94 Defensive Real Plus/Minus — the 74th-highest mark out of 85 PGs. Thomas is probably too pricey for cash games, but his 55.8-point DK projected ceiling is excellent for guaranteed prize pools. Horford, on the other hand, is currently the No. 1 player for all positions in the Phan Model for DK, where his low $6,500 salary comes with a +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Joakim Noah was supposed to be the Knicks’ defensive anchor, but he’s been one of the worst players in the league this year as the Knicks have given up an awful 107.5 points per 100 possessions.
The rest of the Celtics profile as cash-game guys (they have low ceilings), but they haven’t really been that consistent lately, either. Avery Bradley has missed salary-based expectations in five straight games, and Jae Crowder (13.3 FD points in 31.6 minutes last game) hasn’t been much better. These guys are fine for tournament exposure because of the matchup, but don’t go overboard.
The Knicks — especially the ‘Big 3’ in Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick Rose — profile more as tournament plays. Carmelo is probably the best target from this game, although he probably has the toughest matchup against Crowder. That said, Melo can still find his spots:
Porzingis has been up and down lately: He put up back-to-back 53-plus FD outings a couple games ago but has since put up two duds against the Magic and Warriors. It’s tough to analyze today’s matchup: Horford has always been a solid defender — he has a +1.90 DRPM this season — but the Celtics have allowed a mediocre 105 defensive rating with Horford on the floor this year and he’ll give up nearly six inches to Porzingis. Kristaps has a nice +2.11 FD Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup, and his +4.31 Projected Plus/Minus puts him in play in all contest formats, especially given the ugliness of the PF position. Rose has flashed 30-plus FD upside several times recently and is a nice tournament pivot at only 13-16 percent projected ownership in GPPs.
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 221.5 over/under, Warriors -2.5
Quiz: How many Warriors starters have posted a positive DK Plus/Minus in the last couple of years versus the Cavs?
That’s probably not what you were expecting. However, let’s look at the average DK points for someone like Stephen Curry: 43.88 in his four games. Steph is currently a low $8,500 DK and $8,600 FD, which gives him salary-based expectations of 40.15 and 35.62 points. Sure, this is a different Warriors team, but Steph is also priced accordingly. On FD, because of his low price and +2.49 Opponent Plus/Minus, he’s currently the second-highest rated player in the Phan Model. The No. 1 guy is his new teammate, Kevin Durant. And this is what makes today so difficult: For as much as we know about these two teams against each other, this is the first time this combination of players will face each other. Durant has historically struggled against LeBron James . . .
. . . but he’s also never faced them with Curry and Klay Thompson spreading the floor. Given the high total of this game, all of the Big Four of the Warriors are worth pursuing in tournaments, and they’re probably all in cash-game consideration as well. Klay is a volatile DFS asset, but the SG spot is bare as usual: Klay is projected for high 31-35 ownership. Draymond Green has historically crushed the Cavs — see the graphic above — and he owns the position’s highest FD Projected Plus/Minus of +5.36.
On the other side of the ball, we see a similar historical trend:
LeBron is the only healthy current Cavs player who has historically performed well against the Warriors. Factor in that the Warriors have been surging defensively lately — they’re up to No. 2 in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing a stout 100.6 points per 100 possessions — and it’s hard to get very excited about any of the Cavs. When LeBron doesn’t have an underrated defender in Durant on him, he’ll have to deal with one of the best wing defenders in the world in Andre Iguodala. That said, this is still LeBron: He dominated probably the best regular-season NBA team of all time last June. He has a massive ceiling as usual, and he’s currently projected to outperform salary-based expectations on FD by 6.7 points.
The other guys for the Cavs are firmly in GPP-only territory. J.R. Smith‘s absence hurts the Cavs in this particular matchup: The Warriors can now move Klay, a much better defender than Steph, onto Kyrie Irving full-time if they want to do so. And with Durant able to match up one-on-one versus LeBron in the starting lineup, Draymond has to worry a smidge less about helping off of Kevin Love.
Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 198.5 over/under, Spurs -9
This should be a bit of a snooze from a DFS perspective: This game has easily the lowest Vegas total on the board, and these two teams both play at a bottom-10 pace and own a top-10 defense. The two most interesting players, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, are also all-world defenders at the same position and will likely diminish each other’s production. Kawhi and Butler have respectively held opponents to 2.2 and 1.4 DK points below salary-based expectations. They’ve both been playing well lately, but this is a GPP-only spot because of their matchup.
Rajon Rondo has apparently crushed in Christmas games in the past, which is cute. He has a -3.07 Real Plus/Minus (RPM) this season and continues to be one of the worst starting PGs in the league, and now he gets an elite Spurs defense that has allowed only 101.4 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls are implied to score a slate-low 94.75 points for a reason. Good luck with that.
One guy to have exposure to in GPPs is Pau Gasol, who rested last game and has been excellent lately:
Over the Spurs’ last nine games, he’s averaged a high +7.18 Plus/Minus and exceeded value in his most recent eight outings. He owns an 86 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where his reasonable $6,000 salary comes with a +3.15 Projected Plus/Minus and 11 Pro Trends. I don’t think the #RevengeGame narrative applies to one year in Chicago or to a dude as nice as Pau, but do your thing.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas: 211 over/under, Thunder -5
Karl-Anthony Towns on Christmas. What a beautiful gift.
KAT has been crushing lately: He’s scored at least 42 DK points in each of his last six games and has averaged a +5.12 Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s only $8,300 on DK, where his low salary comes with a massive +6.75 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. The Thunder are solid defensively — they rank 11th in defensive efficiency this year, allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions — but KAT has a matchup against rookie Domantas Sabonis that he can certainly win.
Although Sabonis has been stout defending the roll man this year, you can see that’s he’s been put in that spot very infrequently. KAT is a destructive player in the pick-and-roll. You know what to do, Karl.
As for the rest of the Timberpups, they remain playable in all contest formats because of their high minute totals: Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Zach LaVine are all projected to play at least 33 minutes, and the latter two should approach 40 yet again. LaVine will be especially chalky today, but Rubio is a really intriguing tournament target: He’s exceeded value in each of his last seven games and is projected for only 17-20 percent ownership — a mark much lower than that of another PG in this game . . .
What is there to say about Russell Westbrook at this point? Look at his last four games:
He’s all the way up at $12,500 DK and $12,600 FD, and he’s still projected for a position-high 26-30 percent ownership on both sites. Westbrook has a projected DK ceiling of 86.6 points, which is a silly 23.7 points higher than that of any other PG.
None of the other (non-Victor Oladipo) Thunder are ever that exciting, but Steven Adams is viable in cash games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a +5.67 DK Plus/Minus during that time. The Wolves have a lot of defensive potential, but they haven’t gotten anywhere close to realizing it yet: They rank 26th defensively this year, allowing a poor 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 213.5 over/under, Clippers -7
This game throws a wrench into the slate because of it’s 10:30pm ET start time and all of the injuries: Blake Griffin is obviously out, but Chris Paul is also questionable, Julius Randle is a question to play as well after dealing with a personal issue last game, and D’Angelo Russell is only probable to play.
The side you want to target is definitely the Clippers: The Lakers play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league (101.1 possessions per game) and own the second-worst defense this season, allowing an embarrassing 110.0 points per 100 possessions. You certainly cannot roster CP3 in cash games because of his questionable status and late game time, but he’s an excellent GPP play for that reason. He owns a massive +5.01 Opponent Plus/Minus and would absolutely roast Russell if that matchup happens (or really any guard matchup):
If CP3 is out (you’ll have to guess here), Jamal Crawford is probably the bench guy you want. He posted a +17.4 Plus/Minus last game with CP3 and Blake out . . .
. . . and, even though it’s a small sample of one game, it’s consistent with Jamal’s performance under the same conditions last season:
DeAndre Jordan is an excellent play regardless of what happens with injuries: He has a slate-high +6.11 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his $7,300 salary comes with a +3.99 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. Com’on:
For the Lakers, Luol Deng remains viable at $4,700 on FD. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games, averaging a massive +9.68 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s rated behind a bunch of studs at the SF spot, but he’s certainly a viable punt play if you want to roster Durant and Westbrook together, for example.
Russell will be a nice play if CP3 is out. Austin Rivers is better defensively in reputation than in reality: He owns a poor -1.99 DRPM this season, and Russell has shown better playmaking ability this season outside of the pick-and-roll. He’s a solid 37.4 percent 3-point shooter this season and definitely has the Lillard-like talent to get hot in that regard. At only $5,600 DK and 13-16 percent ownership in GPPs, he’s worth some shots today.
Good luck and happy holidays!
