Sunday brings a five-game main slate starting at 6pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook hasn’t recorded less than 60 DraftKings points in 11 straight games. He’s implied to score 59.65 points based on his slate-high $12,400 salary. I would advise to not overthink this in cash games due to Westbrook’s 100 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month, and the same tact can be applied to tournaments.
Values
Two of Marcus Smart’s three highest-scoring DFS games occurred in Chesapeake Energy Arena. He’s going to start again today with Isaiah Thomas ruled out, and he’s cleared today’s implied point total of 18.5 FanDuel points in three straight games — two of which he started. He’s the lock as the value play on FanDuel, and point guards facing the Thunder this season have been an extremely strong play with an average Plus/Minus of +2.68. Alternatively, Smart is shooting guard and small forward eligible on DraftKings at $5,600. It’s not an attractive salary, but he gets the ‘Narrative Street’ edge, as he played his college ball in Oklahoma City. Perhaps that explains these games:
Reggie Jackson’s DraftKings salary continues to drop while his playing time increases. He costs the same as his counterpart, Sergio Rodriguez, but Jackson wins with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12. Rodriguez is $700 cheaper than Jackson on FanDuel, but he’s undercut by Smart ($4,700) and Tim Frazier ($4,900). Point guards haven’t performed well against the Pistons this season, and, in the games Joel Embiid and Jerryd Bayless didn’t play, Rodriguez averaged 22.4 FanDuel points and his assist rate differential dipped three percent.
Leverage Play
We meet again, Stephen Curry. The amount of cheap plays at point guard today, combined with Curry’s recent form, will likely limit his exposure. The case for Curry is that he notched 50.6 FanDuel points against the Timberwolves last month in a game without Draymond Green. He’s made 8-of-35 3-pointers in his last four games, and, at this point, he’s more of a flier in the off-chance Westbrook has an abnormal game and Curry replicates his earlier performance against the Timberwolves, the team allowing opponents to shoot 47.4 percent from the field — the second-worst mark in the league.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shooting guards have been among the safest plays against the Knicks this season, averaging a league-best +2.81 Plus/Minus on 59.1 percent Consistency on FanDuel. D’Angelo Russell is listed as questionable to play, but coach Luke Walton added, “If he’s ready to play, he’ll play [Sunday]. If he’s not, then we’ll re-evaluate and try to get him out there Monday.” I think the signs point toward Russell making a return after today, which should keep Jordan Clarkson in the starting lineup.
Over the past three games without Russell, Nick Young, and Jose Calderon, Lou Williams leads the Lakers with a 35.2 percent usage rate and a FantasyLabs +18.4 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s a very difficult fade on FanDuel at $6,300. His DraftKings price of $7,100 leads all shooting guards, and his presence in a lineup requires additional value to include him, but not at the expense of Westbrook.
Values
Buddy Hield and Langston Galloway qualify as ‘Value Plays’ if Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore are unavailable for the fourth straight game. Both lead all shooting guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Suns are currently ranked first in pace and 25th in defensive rating.
Leverage Play
Outside of Williams and the cheap guys, the shooting guard spot is filled with similarly-priced volatile plays. Zach LaVine may be the safest of the group, and the last time the Timberwolves played the Warriors, he led the team with 31 actual points and 37.1 FanDuel points. If you’re looking to be contrarian, Avery Bradley fits the bill. He costs the same as Klay Thompson on FanDuel and $400 more than Victor Oladipo. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, his projected ownership is among the lowest, and, in a field of interchangeable shooting guards, sometimes you resort to the less obvious choice in tournaments strictly for the ownership advantage. When Isaiah Thomas is off the court, Bradley averages 1.0 DraftKings points per minute and his assist percent differential is +5.7 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant will play in another game with a Vegas spread of at least 10 points. Last night, he failed to deliver on his expected production yet was still an efficient 7-of-13 from the field in 31 minutes. The Warriors are slated to play their fourth game in five nights, and, according to the Mah 0-12 scale, this game rates as an 8.5, which portends a loss. Following the Warriors’ previous three losses, they played the Pelicans twice and the Suns once. In those games, the Warriors averaged 125.3 points and won by an average of 15.0 points. It’s fair to ignore the small sample against two of the worst teams in the Western Conference, but the last time the Warriors played the Timberwolves, Durant posted 61.5 DraftKings points. His prospects today are aided by the Timberwolves’ 108.8 defensive rating — the fourth-worst mark in the NBA.
Values
If you’re really scraping the bottom of the salary bin, Jaylen Brown and Jerami Grant both cost $3,000 on DraftKings.
In two games sans Isaiah Thomas, Brown has become a main cog in the reserve rotation and has played at least 21 minutes each time. He’s not a per-minute beast, but in an uptempo game, he’ll have ample opportunity to pay back his minimum salary.
Grant closed out Friday’s loss to the Rockets as the fourth-quarter center, effectively benching Steven Adams. The Celtics will always have one of Al Horford, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, and Tyler Zeller on the court, making Grant’s path to minutes narrower.
Between the two options, Grant offers less volatility, as he’s produced more than today’s implied point total of 12.65 in 11 of the past 13 games. Brown averages more DraftKings points per minute, but that’s buoyed by one game in which he touched his ceiling of 37.25 DraftKings points.
Leverage Plays
Carmelo Anthony and Andrew Wiggins are the alternatives at small forward today. Anthony easily enjoys the better matchup, facing a Lakers team ranked fifth in pace and 28th in defensive rating. Wiggins’ DFS production has been heavily tied to his scoring output, which is not unlike Anthony’s: He will chip in rebounds, assists, and a steal or two. On a five-game slate, if you embrace the risk, Wiggins’ $1,500 salary relief on FanDuel against a team playing their fourth game in five nights could tip the scales in tournaments. It’s not the prudent move in cash, and Anthony offers a much safer projected floor. The Warriors-Timberwolves’ Over/Under of 224 is seven points higher than that of the Knicks-Lakers contest.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the obvious tournament play because so many people were burned by his DNP-rest last night. Outside of any ownership edge you may gain by going back to the Davis well, he actually has a solid matchup against the 25th-ranked defense. The Suns average more fouls per game than any other team, and they allow opponents to attempt a league-high 29.5 free throws per game. Davis averages 10.5 free-throw attempts per game and 8.6 fouls drawn per game — both rank second in the league. Of course, Davis’ injury concerns don’t vanish after two days of rest. I understand the kickback to Davis in cash, but he’s second in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s unavoidable value in tournaments.
Value
Jon Leuer has been priced down to $4,100 on DraftKings after consecutive 20-plus DK-point games. He’ll face a Sixers team devoid of Joel Embiid, but Nerlens Noel will make his season debut and likely clash with Leuer in the second unit. Leuer played at least 23 minutes in five straight games while exceeding 18.15 DraftKings points in seven straight contests. That’s the number he needs to hit in order to pay off his $4,100 salary.
Leverage Play
Kristaps Porzingis is dealing with a minor right knee issue, and, over the past five games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations one time while shooting 31.3 percent from the field. The Lakers are one of the worst defenses in the NBA, and opponents have made a league-high 67.7 percent of their attempts in the restricted zone, where Porzingis has converted shots at a 71.3 percent clip. The recent woes, lingering knee soreness, and imminent return of Derrick Rose decrease Porzingis’ utility in cash games, but the matchup against the Lakers and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 on FanDuel — tops among power forwards — gives him a solid case for tournament consideration.
Center
Stud
The Sixers will be without Embiid, who didn’t make the trip to Detroit because of an inflamed elbow. When Embiid is off the court, the Sixers’ defensive rating balloons to 109.4. Much of that is due to his replacements, namely Jahlil Okafor. When Okafor is on the court, opponents shoot 47.8 percent from the field and the Sixers’ rebound rate is 44.8 percent — both are the lowest marks on the team. This is all to set up the matchup against Andre Drummond, the league-leader with a 25.3 percent rebound rate. Noel is set to make his debut, but Drummond averaged a +6.78 Plus/Minus in four meetings against the Sixers last season. He’s second among starting centers with a +4.49 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he’s corralled at least 20 rebounds in two straight games. Drummond is the top-tier center play on the slate.
Values
When Embiid hasn’t played, Jahlil Okafor has averaged 24.4 FanDuel points per game. His present salary on FanDuel requires him to produce 19.37 points in order to meet expectations — a mark he’s exceeded in five straight contests.
Joakim Noah has by far the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. This can be leveraged on DraftKings, where he’s been marked down to a season-low $3,600. As mentioned a few times already, the Lakers are bad on defense and at defending the rim.
Leverage Play
The move on this slate is to pay up for Drummond — which isn’t an arduous task on FanDuel — or dip down in the bargain bin. The in-between is murky. The last time the Timberwolves played the Warriors, Draymond Green was given the night off and Karl-Anthony Towns landed on 42.15 DraftKings points. Now that Green will likely play, Towns doesn’t provide much equal value compared to the rest of the field. I know that Warriors coach Steve Kerr already said, “We don’t anticipate resting anybody [Sunday] night. But it always depends on how they’re feeling and what happens in tonight’s game.” As of last night, the Warriors likely won’t rest anyone, but Zaza Pachulia‘s status remain uncertain, and that could stretch the frontcourt rotation thin. Marc Gasol was able to provide 44.0 DraftKings points against the Warriors last night, and Towns is priced at an implied point total of 38.15 DraftKings points.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
