Today’s main slate begins at 6:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard is the most expensive point guard today by $1,600 on FanDuel and plays in the 3:35pm ET game that isn’t included in the 6pm main slate. He’s been masterful so far this year, scoring at least 36 FD points in all six games. The fewest real points he’s scored has been 27 two games ago against the Suns — a game in which he still put up 40.5 FD points and barely missed value. Today he’ll face a Grizzlies team that ranks 13th defensively, although they’ve struggled to defend PGs early in the season: Per our Trends tool, they’ve allowed them to score 2.73 FD points over salary-based expectations on the season.
In the main slate, the highest-rated DK PG is Boston’s Isaiah Thomas. He’s been excellent to start the season, scoring at least 35 DK points and hitting salary-based expectations in all five games despite seeing some tough matchups. Today he gets an awesome matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed PGs to score 5.9 points over salary-based expectations this year:
Thomas leads all DK PGs with a +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus mark and 12 Pro Trends. He’s certainly playable in all contest formats today.
Value
The PG with the highest Projected Plus/Minus mark on FD is Dallas’ JJ Barea, who has easily cleared salary-based expectations in every game this season. Today he’ll face a Milwaukee team that has been below-average on defense, allowing 101.4 points per 100 possessions on the year. Barea is projected for 30.4 minutes and a 24.85 usage rate; he’ll play a lot at the off-ball guard position alongside Deron Williams, which should put him against Tony Snell, who has defensive potential but has been poor so far this year with a 110 defensive rating in his five games. Barea is projected for 13-16 percent ownership on FanDuel and should be a popular value option.
Leverage Play
Kyle Lowry sits $200 more than Thomas on DraftKings, which should reduce his ownership today. Lowry has been up and down to start the year, but he’s seeing very heavy minutes, averaging 37.94 in his first five games. He’s taken a bit of a reduced offensive role to start, as backcourt-mate DeMar DeRozan has been red hot, currently leading the NBA in scoring with 35.8 points per game. Still, Lowry’s minute load is encouraging and he’s projected for 36.6 minutes and a 24.9 usage rate today against the Kings, who currently own the fourth-worst defense in the league. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he’ll play against Ty Lawson, who has a poor -1.5 Defensive Real Plus/Minus mark over the past year. Lowry could have a huge game at reduced ownership given his awkward pricing next to Thomas.
Shooting Guard
Stud
As mentioned above, DeMar DeRozan currently leads the NBA in scoring with 35.8 PPG. Typically an inefficient volume scorer, he’s been oddly dominant in that regard, shooting the ball at a 55.1 percent clip and posting a true shooting mark of 61.0 percent. He has put up at least 40 FD points in every game this season, easily exceeding value by an average of 9.91 FD points per game in his five played. He’s definitely more expensive now — he’s at $8,800 on FD, compared to his Game 1 price of $7,500 — but he’s still projected to outperform his salary-based expectations by 4.61 points. He gets a great matchup today against Arron Afflalo, who has a very poor -2.6 Defensive Real Plus/Minus in the past year. DeRozan will eventually see some regression, but today might not be that day.
The sprained toe that was bothering Devin Booker seemingly wasn’t an issue last game, as Booker posted his best performance of the year with 41.3 FD points against the Pelicans. The more important stat, however, was that he was able to go 41.45 minutes in that game, which bodes well for his health moving forward. Today he is projected for 34.7 minutes and a 27.03 usage rate against the Lakers, who have played at the second-highest pace this year and posted a poor 103.9 defensive rating. He is projected for high 21-25 percent ownership on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Avery Bradley is the highest-rated SG in the DK Phan Model and leads the position with a +5.05 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s played a ton of minutes this year — he’s been above 34 in all five games and has played 38 in the last two with Marcus Smart back — and has put up some uncharacteristically huge games: He scored 44.5 DK points against a tough Cavs team last game and 57.75 points against the third-ranked Charlotte defense. And after all of those games, he’s still only $6,000 on DraftKings. He’s projected for 37.4 minutes and a solid 21.67 usage rate today against a Denver team that has had a rotating cast of SGs this season. Gary Harris returned last night but played only 15 minutes and could continue to be eased back in. If that’s the case, Bradley will see quite a bit of rookie Jamal Murray, who has allowed opponents to score 6.7 points over expectations on DK so far this season.
Leverage Play
The trio of DeRozan, Booker, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all projected for 21-25 percent ownership on FanDuel today. However, given Giannis’ price point — he’s the most expensive player in the entire slate at $9,900 — he could see reduced ownership from the two other studs. And that’s very intriguing considering his excellent play this year: He hasn’t been below 42 FD points and has exceeded salary-based expectations in all six games despite his high price tags. Today he’ll face a Dallas team that has allowed 105.6 points per 100 possessions on the year, the seventh-worst mark in the league. He’ll match up against Wesley Matthews, who injured his knee Friday and really struggled against the Portland wings. Giannis could have a huge game today.
Small Forward
Studs
Rudy Gay boasts the highest-projected ceiling on both DK and FD among SFs at 46.7 and 44.4 points. He missed yesterday’s game against the Bucks with a strained rib and should be questionable for today’s game against the Raptors. If he’s able to go, it’ll be a tough matchup against the seventh-ranked defense and DeMarre Carroll, who has a nice +1.0 Defensive Real Plus/Minus mark over the past year. Still, Gay has been very good in his healthy games this year: Prior to his injury, he put up 45.9 FD points in 42.2 minutes against the Miami Heat. He’s averaging 0.89 fantasy points per minute over the past year, which is the best mark among all starting SFs today. If he’s unable to go, it would be a bump for DeMarcus Cousins, whom we’ll discuss momentarily . . .
Values
The highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model — by far, in fact — is Dallas’ Harrison Barnes. He’s an inefficient scorer, but he’s projected for 37.3 minutes and a 21.84 usage rate at a low $5,100 price tag. As a result, he easily leads the position with a +6.25 Projected Plus/Minus mark. He has a pace differential of +2.5 in a matchup against the Bucks and has an awesome +5.98 Opponent Plus/Minus mark as well. Per our Matchups tool, he’ll start at the four spot against fellow small-ball wing Jabari Parker, who has allowed opponents to score 6.9 points over salary-based expectations in the past year. Harry is in play in all contest formats given his low price point and matchup today.
Rookie Jaylen Brown got the start in place of Jae Crowder last game and had a heckuva debut, putting up 35 points in 35.4 minutes at a low $3,500 FD price tag. He’s still cheap today at $3,800 and is projected to play 29 minutes against a Denver team that has played at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. Brown is projected for an 18.21 usage rate but took 16 shots last game and hit three of his six 3-pointers; that usage projection could be on the conservative side depending on game flow. He has a high +4.56 Projected Plus/Minus and is the third-highest rated SF in the FD Phan Model.
Leverage Play
TJ Warren‘s play this year seems to be legit: He’s now put up at least 34 FD points in four of his six games this year. He’s also playing huge minutes — 39.8 and 37.6 in the last two — and has a firm hold on the Phoenix SF position. He’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership, which is high but lower than Barnes’ slate-high 21-25 percent mark. If players elect to go value at the SF position with Barnes and Brown, Warren could be a nice leverage play at a slightly higher price point. He has a 42.9-point FD ceiling, the third-highest among SFs today.
Power Forward
Stud
Today’s group of PFs is an odd one: Kristaps Porzingis is the highest-priced player at $6,400 FD. As such, there’s no true high-priced ‘stud.’ The player with the highest-projected ceiling is Jabari Parker at 43.8 FD points. He’s been excellent the last two games, putting up 39.2 and 39.1 FD points in just 29.09 minutes per game. He is projected for only 29.8 minutes today but has a solid usage projection of 25.98 percent and has shown that he can exceed value in that amount of time. He will match up against Harrison Barnes, who has a poor -1.1 Defensive Real Plus/Minus mark in the past year.
Value
The player with the highest Projected Plus/Minus value among PFs is Larry Nance Jr. at +4.64 on FD. He has scored at least 27 FD points in each of his last three games and has played 25 minutes in each affair. He’s just $4,200 on FD and $4,100 on DK, and he’s projected for 27.1 minutes and a low 13.1 usage rate. That’s not ideal, but his salary puts him at just 15.86 implied points — a mark he’s easily exceeded recently. He has a 32.6-point projected ceiling on FD and has the highest-projected points per salary mark of 5.0.
Leverage Play
This is how ugly the PF position is today: Patrick Patterson is the only PF on FD projected for at least 30 minutes (he’s at 30.2). Unfortunately, Patterson’s slate-high 30.2-minute projection also comes with an 11.28 usage projection. However, Patterson is only $3,800 and has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last three games. He can score fantasy points in a variety of ways: He grabbed seven rebounds last game and has 10 3-point attempts in the last two games. He’ll face a Sacramento team that ranks 24th in rebound rate and 27th in defensive efficiency. Patterson isn’t a sexy play, but with how bad the PF position is today, perhaps taking the guy projected for the most minutes is the way to go.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has the highest-projected ceiling among FD centers at 59.9 points. He’s a whopping $2,500 more expensive than any other option, but he’s still projected to outperform his $9,700 salary by 3.95 points. Per our NBA On/Off tool, in 10 games without Rudy Gay last year, Boogie scored an average of 53.6 DK points and outperformed his expectations by an average of 5.9 points. As mentioned above, Gay is currently questionable with a rib injury. Last game, Boogie disappointed, scoring only 23.8 FD points in 27.6 minutes. He’ll look to bounce back in a big way today: He’s projected for 34.6 minutes and a 34.09 usage rate against the Raptors.
Values
Andrew Bogut will play today against the Bucks and currently is the highest-rated center in the DK Phan Model with a +6.35 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s projected for 24.1 minutes and will face Miles Plumlee, who has allowed opponents to score 7.1 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year. Milwaukee has been one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league and Bogut has grabbed nine, 14, and 12 rebounds in his last three games. He’s a sneaky bet to hit value tonight. On FanDuel, the player with the highest Projected Plus/Minus is Tyler Zeller, who is again expected to start with Al Horford out. Zeller crushed value last game, scoring 36 FD points in 27.8 minutes of action. At only five to eight percent ownership, he’s a contrarian value option for tournaments.
Leverage Play
Marc Gasol has scored at least 32 FD points in each of his last four games — 41.8 last game — and is still somehow only $7,200 on FD. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus value among centers at +5.03. He’s projected for 33.4 minutes and a 25.32 usage rate today and has the second-highest projected ceiling behind Boogie’s. Gasol gets a very advantageous matchup against Mason Plumlee, who has allowed opponents to score 6.1 points above salary-based expectations in the last year. Gasol is an interesting pivot down from Boogie if playing in the early 3:35pm ET slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
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