Sunday brings a four-game main slate at 6pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets
Vegas: 233.5 over/under, Rockets -12.5
This is how high the Rockets-Nets total is: Even though the Nets are massive 12.5-point underdogs, they’re still implied for the second-most points in the slate at 110.5.
James Harden is easily the class of the slate from a matchup and ceiling standpoint, but he’s also only $700 FD cheaper than Russell Westbrook, who doesn’t exactly have a bad matchup himself against the Kings. The question is whether you can stomach the Rockets’ huge spread; thankfully, our Trends tool can help us see how Harden has done in large-spread games in the D’Antoni system:
In nine games this season as a double-digit favorite, Harden has averaged 58.47 FD points, a +9.97 Plus/Minus, and has hit value 77.8 percent of the time. One of those games came against these very Nets on December 12th: Harden had 62.1 FD points. It’s fine if you prefer Westbrook in a close-spread game against a terrible Kings defense, but it shouldn’t be because of any blemish of Harden’s.
Although Harden’s teammate correlations have skewed negative lately, a great piece from Bill Monighetti shows that Harden’s fellow starters have crushed during his biggest games. I’m stealing Bill’s graphic here:
As such, a lot of these guys are solid options today. The Nets play at the fastest pace in the league, averaging 104.2 possessions per game, and own the fourth-worst defense, allowing a poor 108.7 points per 100 possessions. They’re notoriously bad against opposing centers, but they’re really just bad against every position:
Most of these guys profile more as cash-game plays, and it’s certainly fine to load up on Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, and even Ryan Anderson in that regard. Montrezl Harrell certainly has GPP upside even in only 24.1 projected minutes; the Nets have been the worst team in the league versus centers, although Harrell has played only 37 percent of his minutes there this season.
The Nets are tough to analyze today: They have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, yet most of their players have very limited ceilings because of their low minute totals. Brook Lopez and Trevor Booker are the best GPP options, but even they are projected for only 31.8 and 26.9 minutes and thus projected ceilings of 40.9 and 37.4 FD points. In their first game, the Nets put up 118 points and lost by only four points on the road, but no player really had a great DFS game:
The Nets distribute minutes across many players, which means that no one really dominates as a fantasy play.
Lopez, Booker, Sean Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdanovic, and company are all cheap enough to warrant rostering in GPPs today — especially at that high team total — but note that they all cap each other’s ceilings and lower each other’s floors.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings
Vegas: 211.5 over/under, Thunder -1.5
Russell Westbrook has a below-average -0.35 FD Opponent Plus/Minus today, and there’s something to be said about Westbrook’s splits in good and bad matchups. Even if we take out his games against the Grizzlies — he got ejected in the first half of one — he’s still been barely above salary-based expectations:
However, this is Westbrook we’re talking about: He dropped 60.7 FD points in the first meeting against the Kings, who own a bottom-five defense, allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been able to limit PG production because of their slow pace — they average only 96.7 possessions per game — but a matchup versus Darren Collison is not something that should scare you.
Steven Adams has a tough matchup against DeMarcus Cousins, who is now playing center full time for the Kings, but Victor Oladipo and Enes Kanter remain way too cheap on FD. Kanter rarely profiles as a cash-game option, but he’s flourished in his backup role this season and has crushed value lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a robust +6.61 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Dipo has shown a limited ceiling of late — he hasn’t exceeded 30 FD points since November 30th — but he’s been fairly consistent, averaging between 20 and 29 points over his last eight games. If you’d prefer to not pay up for Harden, going Gordon and Dipo is certainly fine in cash games given their low salaries of $5,700.
DeMarcus Cousins is a GPP-only play in this slate given his high price tags of $10,200 DK and $10,400 FD and the matchups of Harden and Westbrook. However, given their projected ownership of 41-plus percent and Cousins’ projection of 17-20 percent, he’s an elite pivot. The Thunder are tough defensively down low: They rank eighth in defensive efficiency, allowing 103.7 points per 100 possessions, and Adams has an elite +2.30 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. That said, Boogie has held his own against tough competition this season . . .
. . . and he dropped 52.6 FD points in their first meeting.
Rudy Gay had his best game in a long time last outing, dropping 44 FD points in 35.2 minutes against the Cavs. He’ll likely draw the Andre Roberson matchup, but he’s still worth rostering in GPPs at low ownership given this small four-game slate. Other than that, it’s hard to find other Kings players to get excited about: Ty Lawson and Collison cannibalize each other and Garrett Temple doesn’t really have a ceiling or floor. Anthony Tolliver is somewhat intriguing in GPPs now that he’s starting at the PF spot and only $3,900 FD, but he has a scary floor of 8.4 points.
Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas: 193.5 over/under, Grizzlies -7.5
The Bulls are on the second leg of a back-to-back and on the road against the best defense in the league. Also, Jimmy Butler was reportedly going to have his minutes monitored last night after losing 10 pounds over the last week with an illness, but he played 39.2 minutes against the Pelicans in a close game. For these reasons, the Bulls are implied for easily the slate’s lowest team total at 93 points. It’s probably fine to still have Butler (he leads the Bulls with a 34.8 percent usage rate in games without Dwyane Wade, who is resting today) and perhaps Taj Gibson exposure in GPPs because of Butler’s elite ceiling and Taj’s nice $4,800 price point on FD, but be careful with this game. It could get ugly.
Marc Gasol was almost an auto-play last game against the Rockets at $6,900 DK and he’s come up only $200 since then. He has a nice +2.83 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bulls and owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends. As I mentioned last breakdown, Gasol’s rebounding totals have been oddly low this season . . .
. . . but, still, the guy is only $7,100 DK and playing against a Bulls team on a tough back-to-back.
Mike Conley has been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games and averaging a +7.00 DK Plus/Minus during that time. He’s scored at least 42 DK points in five of his last six and has been playing huge minutes. He’s projected for 34.7 minutes and a 24.71 usage rate today against a Bulls team starting Michael Carter-Williams, who has allowed opposing players to shoot 39.4 percent from the 3-point line this year. Finally, some GPP exposure to Tony Allen — who has played excellent ball lately against brutal competition — and Zach Randolph is warranted. Z-Bo has a nice +2.24 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with seven Pro Trends and a +2.30 Projected Plus/Minus.
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 211 over/under, Pistons -2
The Lakers play at the second-fastest pace in the league, averaging 100.3 possessions per game, and own the worst defense, allowing an embarrassing 110.3 points per 100 possessions. As such, the two highest-rated players in the FD Phan Model are Detroit’s Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond, who come with Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.64 and +3.96. They both have massive Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +3.69 and +6.15, respectively, and have played excellent basketball lately, averaging a +4.44 and +5.96 FD Plus/Minus over their last nine games. At only 21-25 and 17-20 percent projected ownership, they are elite plays in all contest formats.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is doubtful for today’s game, which means Stanley Johnson and Reggie Bullock should get extended run on the wing. Bullock was the superior DFS asset last game, scoring 16.9 FD points in 26.25 minutes against the Jazz, but both of these guys have very limited ceilings. The guys to look at in GPPs other than Reggie and Drummond are Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris, who have averaged a +4.04 and +4.89 FD Plus/Minus over their last nine games. Morris is especially valuable on FD, where his low $4,700 salary comes with a +3.90 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Although the Lakers are implied for a respectable 104.5 points today, this is a tough DFS spot as they all see low minutes and Detroit plays at a bottom-five pace, averaging only 96.2 possessions on the year. The two main guys for the Lakers, Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell, have struggled of late and own poor Opponent Plus/Minus values of -0.79 and -0.88. They’re projected for 33.2 and 29.8 minutes — easily the most of any Laker — which makes them playable in GPPs, but, again, this is a tough spot and their projected ownership levels of 31-35 and 17-20 percent might be too high.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
