Sunday brings a six-game all-day slate starting at 12pm ET. The four-game main slate begins at 7pm. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last six games despite carrying high price tags. He’s expensive as usual today at $12,000 DK and $11,500 FD, but he gets a Pacers team that currently ranks 17th defensively, allowing 105.0 points per 100 possessions on the year. Further, they have allowed opposing PGs to score 1.0 points over salary-based expectations on DK and Westbrook’s primary defender, Jeff Teague, has a poor -0.6 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year. Westbrook is certainly a fantastic play in this slate, but note that he does have projected FD ownership of 41-plus percent. He’ll definitely be chalky and could be worth fading in tournaments.
Value
Kyle Lowry isn’t a typical ‘Value’ play, but he’s probably a bit underpriced at only $8,300 FD and there’s not really PG value in this slate outside of Dante Exum, who brings a ton of uncertainty given his very low usage rate. Lowry has been very consistent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games by an average of 7.11 FD points. Lowry has a really nice matchup today against a Sacramento team that currently ranks 28th defensively, allowing 108.7 points per 100 possessions on the year. He currently boasts a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he holds 11 Pro Trends and 31-35 percent projected ownership.
Leverage Play
Damian Lillard has missed value in three straight games but is in a really nice bounce back spot today against a Brooklyn Nets team that currently ranks 23rd defensively this season. They’ve been the second-worst team against PGs this year, allowing a +3.9 DK Plus/Minus to opposing PGs so far this season. This game currently has the highest Vegas total at 222.5, and the Blazers are implied for a slate-high 113.25 points. Lillard is priced up at $8,900 DK and $9,200 FD, but his projected ceiling on both sites sits second in the slate only to Westbrook’s. He plays in one of the early games but is certainly a nice pivot down from Westbrook in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan‘s price keeps on climbing and he keeps on hitting value. He’s now exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games by an average of 7.42 FD points. He still leads the league in scoring at 33.0 points per game and has hit at least 30 points in five of his last six games. He brings an incredibly safe floor given his projected minute total of 36.6 and projected usage of 36.46. The Kings have been pretty average against SGs this year, allowing a +0.4 Plus/Minus on DK this season with 6.4 percent average ownership. He’ll be way higher than that, however: He’s projected for a slate-high 41-plus percent ownership mark on FD. Even still, he’s an elite play in all formats given the scarcity of the position and his high floor.
Value
Rodney Hood was in a bit of a slump: Prior to last night’s game against the Rockets, he had played 33-plus minutes in each of his last four games yet had posted 30 FD points only once. Last night he found his stroke again, nailing five of his eight 3-pointers en route to a 33.3-point FD outing in 33.6 minutes of action. He’ll have a chance to keep it rolling today against a Nuggets team that plays at a top-six pace (102.2) yet has a below-average defensive rating (104.9). Further, they’ve allowed opposing SGs this year to score 1.0 points above salary-based expectations on DK. Hood is a really nice option at $5,200 on FD, where he holds 11 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
If playing the earlier slates, CJ McCollum is in a great spot against a poor Nets defense that ranks 23rd overall this season. He’s been playing a ton of minutes lately — he’s gone at least 33 in each of his last five games — and is projected for 35.1 minutes and a high 27.23 usage rate today. He has a top-three fantasy points per minute mark on FD (0.91), where he owns seven Pro Trends and a 68 percent Bargain Rating. Again, the Blazers are implied for a slate-high 113.25 points, and McCollum is second on the team with scoring at 22.1 points per game. Brooklyn plays at the second-fastest pace in the league this year, which means that McCollum should see a ton of possessions today. He’s a nice pivot down from DeRozan’s likely very high ownership in tournaments.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler is definitely the class of the main slate SF position: He leads all players with 1.03 FD fantasy points per minute and a 27.2 usage rate. He’s projected for 38.7 minutes today and a 24.95 percent usage rate against a Lakers team that plays at the sixth-fastest pace yet has the seventh-worst defense. Butler has shown consistency lately, hitting salary-based expectations in five of his last six games by an average of 7.61 FD points, and he’s also shown his very high ceiling: He has two 60-point outings in that same time frame. The Lakers have been average against SFs this year, allowing them to score 0.2 DK points over expectations. Butler has easily the highest-projected ceiling on FD (55.1 points), where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Moe Harkless missed value last game, scoring only 16.7 FD points on 4-of-13 shooting. That said, he got 35.2 minutes of action and is projected for 32.7 today against a poor Nets defense. The Nets play at the second-fastest pace in the league, which means that Harkless should get a ton of possessions at his low $4,600 price tag on FD, where he owns six Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. The Nets have been pretty bad against SFs this year, allowing 1.7 DK points above salary-based expectations. A lot of people might target Glenn Robinson, who is expected to start today for Paul George. However, he may see only 25 minutes and use possessions at a low rate. Harkless is definitely cheap enough where you don’t have to go Robinson if you can’t stomach that risk.
Leverage Play
Wilson Chandler has crushed value in the last two games, scoring 41.5 and 50.7 FD points in 35.8 and 35.1 minutes of action. He definitely has a tough matchup today against the Utah Jazz, who currently rank sixth defensively and have held opposing SFs to 0.4 DK points below salary-based expectations this season. That said, he should come with low ownership as a result: He’s projected for only 13-16 percent ownership on FD in this small slate. Gordon Hayward will be a more popular play at only $1,300 more, but he’s played poorly over the last three games since re-aggravating a finger injury. The Nuggets are actually 3.5-point home favorites today; Chandler is a nice leverage play in tournaments down from Butler and Hayward.
Power Forward
Stud
Paul Millsap has dealt with tough matchups recently but has still scored 39.1 FD points in his last two games. He’ll face the Knicks today, who own the second-worst defense in the league this season, allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions. There is a bit of risk here with his matchup with Kristaps Porzingis, but Vegas still has the Hawks currently projected for 106.25 points. Millsap is easily the most efficient PF playing today: He leads the position with 1.12 FD fantasy points per minute over the last year. He’s projected for 33.7 minutes and a fairly-low (at least relative to other studs) 23.49 usage rate today, but he needs less possessions to hit value than other players given his incredible efficiency. He’s a better play on FD, where his $7,500 price tag comes with 12 Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Paul George is unlikely to play today, which means that Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner will need to play extended minutes at the frontcourt spots. Thad has been very consistent lately, hitting value in each of his last five games and scoring at least 22 FD points in that time frame. He’ll likely be highly-owned because it’s a small slate: We currently have him projected for 41-plus percent ownership on FD. He leads the position with 4.9 projected points per $1,000 salary and a +4.61 Projected Plus/Minus. Despite the consistent play lately, his salary sits at a season-low $5,200 on FD, where he owns 12 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s definitely a chalky cash-game option today.
Leverage Play
Kenneth Faried has been excellent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games by an average of 5.37 FD points. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes in that time — he’s been between 24 and 28 minutes in his last three — but he’s grabbing a large percentage of rebounds while on the floor. He’s grabbing a whopping 22.5 percent of the available boards on the floor, which is easily his career-high through six seasons. The Jazz are an excellent defensive team, ranking sixth overall, but they’ve been poor collecting offensive rebounds. They have grabbed only 19.6 percent of the available offensive boards, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league. This is a risky spot for Faried given the matchup, but he has sneaky rebound upside.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has shown that he can dominate any matchup: On Friday, he dominated the elite Clippers defense, scoring 68.1 FD points in 36.7 minutes thanks to 38 real points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and a block. He’s easily the most-expensive center on the board today at $10,400 DK and $10,200 FD, but that last game against the Clips showed just how high his ceiling is on a nightly basis. He’ll get the Raptors today, who haven’t been quite as good defensively this year without Bismack Biyombo down low. They rank 18th defensively on the year, and Boogie’s opponent, Jonas Valanciunas, has allowed centers to score a high 1.1 fantasy points per minute on DK. Boogie is in play in all contest formats as usual.
Value
Myles Turner will definitely be a chalk value play today, as he scored 32.7 FD points last game without Paul George. Per our NBA News feed, Turner and Ellis were the only players to score double-digit points in George’s absence and Turner saw a spike in rebounding percentage as well. He has a tough matchup against the Thunder, who currently rank fifth defensively this season, but this is about his low price tags. He’s only $6,200 on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He leads the position with a +6.62 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Brook Lopez is on a Nets team that doesn’t play any one player 30-plus minutes on average, but he’s shown that he can still put up big games. Two games ago, he dropped 50.5 FD points against the Lakers thanks to 30 real points and 10 rebounds. He gets an even easier matchup today against a Portland team that has been absolutely miserable on defense this year: They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions. The Nets are currently implied to score 108.75 points — the third-highest mark in the slate. Lopez is projected for only 28.2 minutes today, but he can definitely reach his 46.7-point projected ceiling on FD in that time.
Good luck!
News Updates
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