The All Day slate kicks off at 3:30pm ET and the four-game main slate commences at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has averaged 75.4 DraftKings points over the past three games against the Magic. Kevin Durant played in two of those games, one of which was a double overtime marathon. Westbrook’s DraftKings salary has dropped to a season-low of $11,200, but that’s possibly related to the nine-point spread and the Magic’s pace of 95.5 (27th in the NBA). Westbrook is more a luxury on this slate than a must-have, especially on FanDuel at $11,600. He’s currently second in the league in usage rate at 41.3 percent, and the Magic’s lack of interior defense could make this a historical day: They rank dead last in points in the paint allowed per possession.
Stephen Curry has played less than 32 minutes in five of the past six games while averaging 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. The Warriors are 16.5-point favorites against a Suns team playing the second night of a back-to-back set. I can see the argument for Curry in cash on FanDuel, but he’s the leverage play among the three stud point guards today.
Damian Lillard is the DraftKings value play among the three studs. He lit up the Nuggets for 37 points, seven assists, five rebounds, three steals, and one block in 41 minutes earlier this season. Lillard ranks in the 91st percentile, per SportVU, with 1.09 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. The Nuggets’ defense ranks 23rd in points allowed per possession to pick-and-roll ball-handlers. Lillard has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate, and the image below shows how well the Nuggets have fared against point guards this season.
Value
The Hornets have allowed the most 3-point attempts per game this season. Kyrie Irving is shooting 40.4 percent on 7.1 attempts per game, and he leads the Cavaliers with 24.5 points per game. He’s much cheaper than Westbrook, Lillard, and Curry, and point guards against the Hornets this season have provided 62 percent Consistency on FanDuel and 81 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Leverage Play
In three games against the Trail Blazers, Emmanuel Mudiay hasn’t recorded less than 36.5 DraftKings points and 34.7 FanDuel points. His salary on both sites requires him to score no more than 28 points to hit value. Coach Michael Malone decided to switch up the starting lineup in the previous game, replacing Nikola Jokic with Kenneth Faried — a move that may not last beyond one game. While the Nuggets are among the best rebounding teams, Jusuf Nurkic and Jokic condense the offensive spacing, and when both have been on the court, Mudiay’s effective field goal percentage (eFG) is 39.9 percent. When both have been off, he’s been able to attack the rim more often and his eFG improves to 48.5 percent. Tinkering with the starting lineup may unlock Mudiay’s offensive potential.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Klay Thompson possesses the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. However, he hasn’t done much besides score for the Warriors this season, and he’s stopped getting to the free throw line with regularity. Most of the Warriors, Thompson included, are risky ventures because of the double-digit point spread. He’s a solid value on FanDuel at $5,800, and opposing shooting guards have averaged a +4.54 Plus/Minus on FanDuel against the Suns this season.
Values
Iman Shumpert has carved out a spot in the Cavaliers’ rotation: He’s played at least 25 minutes in four of the past five games, including 9.2 minutes in the fourth quarter. And yet, he’s only $3,300 on DraftKings. Shumpert’s ceiling is low, but there’s no one in his price range projected to play at least 25 minutes; he’s cleared today’s implied point total in his past five games.
Gary Harris has played at least 28 minutes in two of the past three games. While you don’t really know how the Nuggets’ frontcourt is going to play out, their backcourt is mostly solidified, especially without Will Barton (ankle). Harris is more of a FanDuel value, but it ultimately depends on how coach Malone wants to deploy him on the second night of a back-to-back after coming off a preseason groin injury.
Note: Harris has been downgraded to doubtful for today’s game. Check for further updates using our NBA News feed.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum is the most expensive shooting guard on both platforms, but the disparity is larger on FanDuel. Assuming the Warriors-Suns game is a blowout and both Thompon and Devin Booker fail to return value, McCollum could outscore them combined after already proving his mettle against the Nuggets this season with a 49.5-point FanDuel outing in late October. McCollum has the highest ceiling and floor among shooting guards on the slate. That said, shooting guard is littered with values and Lillard will likely gain the ownership edge over McCollum if it becomes an either/or scenario with the Blazers’ backcourt. Since McCollum has reached a season-high in salary on both sites, he may go underowned.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James is the most expensive small forward on FanDuel and DraftKings at $9,900. You may roster him in only the All Day slate and the FanDuel Early Only slate. The Hornets are currently ranked third in defensive rating, but Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (back) is questionable to play, and if he can’t, Treveon Graham may receive a second straight start. In Friday’s game vs. the Raptors, Graham (not Nicolas Batum) was DeMar DeRozan’s primary defender, and when Marco Belinelli replaced Graham, it was Belinelli responsible for guarding DeRozan. Assuming coach Steve Clifford applies the same tactics today, James becomes an easy cash-game play.
It’s not the best reason to roster Kevin Durant, but after Curry snapped his streak of games with a made 3-pointer, he responded with 13 3-pointers. Similarly, Durant had his streak of scoring at least 20 points in a game snapped last time out, which makes me consider how he’ll respond against the Suns, a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. Durant has been impervious to blowouts this season, playing in every fourth quarter, including Thursday’s game against the Nuggets despite a Warriors’ 24-point lead after three quarters. Durant also has history on his side: Earlier this season, he produced 57 DraftKings points against the Suns while attempting a season-high 16 free throws. Further, Suns’ opponents are averaging a league-high 30.9 free-throw attempts per game.
Value
Wilson Chandler averages 29.4 minutes per game for the Nuggets. That’s the fourth-most on the team, and he’s doing it off the bench. The risk with Chandler is an aggravation of his hamstring injury. Barring a late scratch, Chandler will need to produce 21.15 DraftKings points in order to match his salary. He’s exceeded that number in four straight games.
Leverage Play
T.J. Warren has averaged 40.5 DraftKings points per game and 39 FanDuel points per game against the Warriors in his last three games. He’s a safer play on FanDuel at $6,100, but the spread makes it difficult to rely on him in cash games. It’s much easier to pay the extra $400 for Andrew Wiggins, who’s expected to lead small forwards in ownership at 17-20 percent, or save the extra $900 on Chandler as a value bet. However, Warren’s 90 percent Consistency on FanDuel and the Suns’ league-high 104.9 pace offer opportunity in GPPs.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green leads the Warriors in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and double-doubles. He’s not scoring as much as he did last season, but everything else aligns with last year’s per-possession stats. Power forward is a thin position today, and the Warriors are currently 16.5-point favorites. You’re better off paying down in cash games and reserving a few shares of Green in GPPs.
Values
Marvin Williams averages seven more rebounds per 100 possessions when Kidd-Gilchrist is off the floor this season. He nearly double-doubled in consecutive games without Kidd-Gilchrist, and he was battling with an illness earlier this season that caused him to play only 19 minutes against the Pacers last Monday. Now that he’s back to playing 30 minutes a night, he’s worth the expenditure of $5,000 on DraftKings.
Kevin Love has earned himself crunch time minutes this season. Over the past two games, coach Ty Lue has gone with Love over Tristan Thompson at center. Love’s shot isn’t falling with consistency, but he’s attempted at least 12 shots in eight consecutive games — the second-longest streak of his career in Cleveland. His Opponent Plus/Minus isn’t inviting, but he leads all power forwards on DraftKings with a Projected Plus/Minus of +4.2 while costing $900 less than Draymond.
Leverage Play
Julius Randle leads the Lakers in minutes with 28.0 per game. That’s not enticing in cash games, but in three games against the Timberwolves last season, he averaged a +10.72 Plus/Minus with Gorgui Dieng as his primary defender. The Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot 65 percent inside of five feet, and Randle has made 76 percent of his attempts within five feet of the basket. The Wolves and Lakers are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Timberwolves’ starters average 32.1 minutes per game (fourth-most in the NBA), while the Lakers’ starters average 25.5 minutes per game (last in the NBA). The Lakers have less mileage on their bodies, and that could be the difference in this battle.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns faces a team with limited interior defense: Opponents are shooting a league-high 65.7 percent within five feet of the rim, an area where Towns has converted 64.6 percent of his shots this season and 65 percent last season. The Lakers have also allowed opponents to score 50.0 points per game in the paint. Low-usage players Rudy Gobert and Steven Adams posted at least 37 FanDuel points against the Lakers this season while Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins scored at least 44 FanDuel points. The Lakers are middle-of-the-pack in defense and 10th in net rating, allowing opposing starters to stay on the court their typical allotment of minutes.
Value
If Tyson Chandler is able to play, he will provide a ton of value against a Warriors team that has allowed the most offensive rebounds per game this season. In Chandler’s last game against the Warriors, his 18 rebounds were one shy of today’s implied point total on FanDuel. If Chandler is unavailable, Alex Len deserves consideration on DraftKings at $4,700. He’s averaging 2.0 fouls in 27.7 minutes per game as a starter this season, down from his career mark of 5.0 fouls per 36 minutes.
Leverage Play
The Magic are one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They’ve decided to drop back on pick and rolls, and that’s exactly where Westbrook thrives. If the Thunder attack the Magic’s weakness, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter will benefit from Westbrook pocket passes, lobs, or missed shots that turn into offensive rebounds. Kanter is the cheaper option on DraftKings; Adams has a similar floor and ceiling compared to Nikola Vucevic on FanDuel at a $2,000 discount.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
