I couldn’t find one definitive article that confirmed my hypothesis that we’ll receive some uninspired basketball on New Year’s Day. Last year, no team scored more than 108 points and the average margin of victory was 16.4 points. The year prior, two games were played and all four teams scored between 101 and 110 points. Three years ago on this day, the average margin of victory was 14.6 points, but the offensive production ticked up and the Bobcats were semi-relevant. There were plenty of close games in 2013, but no team scored more than 105 points and five of the six games featured a pace below 93.5 possessions per 48 minutes, per NBA.com.
I may be cherry-picking a specific date, but I can’t help but think the human element will play a large role in today’s slate. We can assume some of the players will be listed out due to “illness,” and some of them may not be well enough to actually perform up to their capabilities.
Since 1997, all NBA teams points per 100 possesssions on New Years Day is 101.7.
All other games? 103.5. #NYDflu— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) January 2, 2016
We’re dealing with a five-game slate that begins at 6pm ET, and none of the teams are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set. Orlando is the only team playing on the front end of a back-to-back.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Vegas: 196 over/under, Pistons -4.5
Earlier this season, the Pistons defeated the Heat 107-84, and Tobias Harris was the only starter on either side to crack 30 minutes. Coach Stan Van Gundy was non-committal regarding today’s starting lineup now that Marcus Morris is expected to return following a one-game absence. Either of the two forwards will start alongside Jon Leuer, who has a six percent Dud rate over the past month and is averaging similar DFS production as the power forwards priced $1,000 more than him. He’s cheap and safe, a swell combo for cash-game purposes.
If Morris replaces Harris in the starting lineup, view that as the signal to pounce on Harris on FanDuel. During his three-game stint as a reserve, Harris averaged 35.5 FanDuel points as the anchor of the second unit.
In the last eight games against the Heat, Andre Drummond has averaged 43.84 DraftKings points. He’s been priced down to $6,800 on DraftKings, where he leads all centers in Opponent Plus/Minus. Drummond may not even get to face the Heat’s traditional starting center; if he does, it’ll be a vision-impaired version of him. Drummond’s matchup and salary should be enough to lock him into cash games on DraftKings.
The Heat could be without Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside, their two leading scorers. Dion Waiters may also remain sidelined, which would knock the Heat’s top three players in usage rate out of play.
Josh Richardson claims the worst Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate, and if Dragic is ruled out and Richardson starts at point guard, the Heat don’t offer a viable alternative at shooting guard to keep the Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope off of Richardson. Although Richardson’s recent production has been revelatory, this may be a game in which Justise Winslow or Tyler Johnson are forced to become the primary playmaker.
If Whiteside does play, he’ll be dealing with a swollen right eye after getting poked at the end of Friday’s loss. When the Heat played the Pistons earlier this season, Whiteside was limited to six points and a season-low eight rebounds, and he hasn’t recorded a double-double in three straight games. Whiteside has the second worst Opponent Plus/Minus for a projected starting center, and the trend below denotes how he’s performed this season with a negative matchup:
If Whiteside is ruled out, Willie Reed would likely start at center, and he would receive the same negative Opponent Plus/Minus Whiteside currently holds. Reed costs the minimum on FanDuel, where he’ll become an instant value play after averaging 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past year. James Johnson will offer much more upside as the backup power forward and center, but his production can be erratic.
Much of the value in this game will change based on the availability of Dragic and Whiteside, and if both are available, it’s difficult to make a case for any of the Heat players since Dragic struggled in his last game due to lingering back problems and Whiteside has been just plain awful lately. Johnson and Johnson — Tyler and James — stand to gain the most offensive responsibility if Dragic and Whiteside don’t play, but the Heat may get blown out like they did last time against the Pistons, which will cap minutes. It feels like a no-win situation.
San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks
Vegas: 200.5 over/under, Spurs -4
Kawhi Leonard is officially questionable to play for the third straight game because of gastroenteritis. If he sits, Kyle Anderson may stick in the starting lineup, and he’s offered bare minimum production at a cheap salary. Tony Parker has the best matchup among point guards in the player pool, and despite his recent spike in production, he lacks a ceiling worthy of tournament consideration. The combination of matchup and recent form makes him cash-game eligible on FanDuel given his 90 percent Bargain Rating, but that’s in the event you’re focusing on a high-priced center and need to save elsewhere.
If Leonard doesn’t play, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol should become the primary targets. Both struggled in the previous game sans Leonard, but when Leonard is off the court, Gasol leads the team with a +7.9 percent usage rate differential and Aldridge leads all Spurs with a +11.6 percent true shooting differential.
The Hawks are one of two teams presently implied to score less than 100 points today, but they may catch a break if Leonard doesn’t play. I say “may” since the Spurs held their last two opponents to a combined 192 points, and when Leonard is on the bench, the Spurs sport a 94.5 Defensive Rating and limit opponents to 42.4 percent shooting from the field — the best numbers when any Spur doesn’t play.
If you’re targeting this game for contrarian reasons, Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap, and Dwight Howard are the core three worth considering, as they make up a majority of the Hawks’ offensive production. Millsap has the worst Opponent Plus/Minus at his position, and if Leonard is ruled out, Aldridge’s projected ownership will likely vault, leaving Millsap as the true pivot play at power forward. Howard is also a pivot, as he costs $400 more on DraftKings compared to Andre Drummond, who may get to play without Whiteside, and Schroder’s recent production with Howard back in the lineup has dropped off.
Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
Vegas: 210 over/under, Pacers -5.5
When these two teams met on November 14th, the Pacers won 88-69. C.J. Miles led all scorers with 16 points, and Thaddeus Young and Monta Ellis were the only starters on either side to make at least half of their field goal attempts. In short, it was a defensive slog.
Evan Fournier’s status will alter the Magic’s complexion: He’s officially questionable to play after missing the past three games because of a heel injury. Jodie Meeks will likely remain in the starting lineup if Fournier is ruled out, but the biggest beneficiary during Fournier’s absence has been Serge Ibaka. Over the past three games, Ibaka leads the Magic with a 24.6 percent usage rate, a 17.4 percent rebound rate, and a +6.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential, per the On/Off tool. Power forward is already loaded with a ton of value plays, elevating Ibaka’s stock in tournaments if Fournier can’t play.
I can’t explain the stranglehold Rodney Stuckey has on Jeff Teague‘s production, but I can report that Stuckey will be out for the eighth time in the past nine games. During the previous seven games, Teague averaged 46.25 DraftKings points and exceeded 40 DK points each time. In the lone game Stuckey returned for six minutes before aggravating his hamstring injury, Teague recorded 15 DK points. Now that Ellis has been downgraded to questionable, Teague will certainly draw interest in all formats as the primary playmaker projected to play at least 34 minutes.
Young and Paul George should also be on your radar. Young hasn’t played less than 30 minutes in the past 10 games, nor has he failed to exceed salary-based expectations in seven straight contests. Among the chunk of value plays at power forward, Young presently offers the highest projected ceiling and Bargain Rating (90 percent) on FanDuel.
If Kawhi is ruled out, George will likely claim the highest projected ownership at his position. Based on how small forward is shaping out on DraftKings, George should be a lock in all lineups for his high floor alone.
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas: 209 over/under, Timberwolves -5.5
The Blazers will likely be without Damian Lillard for the fourth straight contest. He’s officially doubtful, and after Saturday’s practice session he said, “I don’t feel comfortable playing at the level I want to be able to play. I’m still day to day.” Expect C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe to start in the backcourt again. Crabbe has played at least 30 minutes in six straight games, solidifying himself as a low-end cash-game punt play on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. McCollum is more difficult to peg: Based on the alternative shooting guards and his salary increase to a season-high $8,300 on DraftKings, minimal exposure is warranted.
In the last five games against the Trail Blazers, Ricky Rubio has averaged 40.05 DraftKings points and 38.14 FanDuel points on 100 percent Consistency. He’s averaged 10.5 assists in 13 career games against them — his highest mark against any team. I will attribute this to the Trail Blazers’ conservative defensive scheme: Rubio’s defender would routinely trail Rubio and go over on the pick rather than under.
Rubio has seen a drastic reduction in pick-and-roll actions this season compared to last — a 28.7 percent frequency down from 40.7 percent – and he typically brings the ball to the frontcourt before initiating the offense by passing to one of Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, or Karl-Anthony Towns and retreating to either corner. Rubio is a cheap option at point guard, but the volatile nature of his production and decreased responsibilities on offense should limit his appeal to tournaments in case he continues to dominate the Trail Blazers.
Towns costs a season-high $9,400 on DraftKings, which makes it difficult to roster him outside of tournaments; he presently leads all centers with projected ownership of 17-20 percent. That said, Towns has a slate-best +5.99 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus as well as the second-highest projected floor. Due to positional scarcity, Wiggins may become a must-play if Kawhi is ruled out, and LaVine is cheap enough on both sites to be a pivot off of DeMar DeRozan in a weak shooting guard player pool.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas: 218.5 over/under, Raptors -9
In the last four games against the Lakers, Kyle Lowry averaged 44.22 FanDuel points. His 100 percent Consistency over the past month is matched by four other players, three of whom play off the bench. His zero percent Dud rate over the past month is matched by only D.J. Augustin‘s. Lowry has dipped below 40 DK points nine times all season, and when the Raptors played the Lakers on December 2nd, Lowry posted 42.5 DK points in a season-low 30.5 minutes. You won’t find a safer point guard option on the slate.
DeMar DeRozan was born in Compton and played college ball at USC, which feeds into #NarrativeStreet. He claims the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus at his position, but he also possesses a zero percent Consistency rating in the last four games against the Lakers, including a 32.8-point FanDuel effort earlier this month. DeRozan leads all shooting guards in projected ownership on both platforms, which signals a fade on DraftKings, where he’s been priced up to a season-high $8,500. It’s not an inspiring crop of shooting guard talent on the slate, so you’ll likely have to decide between McCollum and LaVine if you’re going to go with a true DeRozan fade.
Luol Deng offers a bit of salvation at small forward on FanDuel with a $4,800 salary. His most recent game — an 8.90-point FanDuel performance — doesn’t offer much assurance. However, he was on an 11-game streak of clearing 20.0 FanDuel points, and he needs to provide 18.93 points today in order to meet salary-based expectation.
Because the Raptors-Lakers’ over/under is at least nine points higher than that of any other game on the slate, loading up on players like Julius Randle, Lou Williams, and D’Angelo Russell is one way to maintain exposure to this game in tournaments.
News Updates
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