The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has been awesome recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.65 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. That includes a 61.6-point performance against the Golden State Warriors, with whom Lillard is matched up today. That’s not exactly an aberration either: Lillard has historically loved playing against Golden State:
The Plus/Minus increases to +10.96 if we only look at games played in Portland, which is where tonight’s contest is being held. The one big concern in this game is the absence of Steph Curry. The Warriors’ pace has dropped drastically with him off the floor this season, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game in an 11-game stretch without Curry earlier this season. As a result, the over/under on this game has dropped 9.5 points since opening.
Value
Curry isn’t the only superstar expected to sit today. Anthony Davis is currently doubtful after leaving Wednesday’s game early with an ankle injury. The Pelicans haven’t played many minutes this season with both Davis and DeMarcus Cousins on the sidelines, but the rest of the team has unsurprisingly seen a huge boost in value in those limited situations. That includes Rajon Rondo, who has averaged 42.53 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with both big men off the floor:
He’s played at least 32 minutes in five of his last six games and figures to see a similar playing time today.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball appears to be figuring out his shooting stroke at the NBA level after starting the season with some of the worst shooting numbers in the history of the league. He’s shot 50 percent from 3-point range since returning from injury on February 23, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.16 fantasy points per minute as a result. He has a nice matchup today with the Denver Nuggets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87, and his $7,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Chris Paul has a tough matchup today with the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, but Paul’s salary has been reduced to $7,500 on DraftKings, which is as low as its been since November. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent, which could make him an interesting contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Studs
Jrue Holiday will likely be one of the highest owned options on the slate, assuming that Davis is indeed out with an injury. He’s been excellent over the past month, averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, but he could potentially take his production to another level with both Davis and Cousins off the court. He’s led the team with a usage rate of 33.2 percent in that situation, resulting in an average of 48.07 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He leads all SGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
James Harden also factors into the SG conversation on today’s slate, especially given his 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s in the same difficult spot as Paul against the Toronto Raptors, but the Rockets’ implied team total of 111.5 points is still tied for the fifth-highest mark on the slate. Harden has also been priced down to just $10,600, and he has offered solid value at a comparable salary over the past two seasons:
Value
This looks like a prime slate to pay up at SG, but the Kings’ SG tandem of Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic is also in play on FanDuel. They have an elite matchup with the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +2.91 for both. Hield saw more minutes than Bogdanovic in their most recent game, but that was ultimately a 13-point loss for the Kings. Still, it probably makes Hield the preferred option on today’s slate given that he already has the edge in per-minute production and has a superior Bargain Rating (93 percent).
Fast Break
SG is absolutely loaded today. DeMar DeRozan has been priced down to $7,500 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s also in what should be a nice spot with the Houston Rockets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57.
Bradley Beal could wind up in one of the best situations of the day for the Washington Wizards. He has an elite matchup with the Pelicans, who have played at the fastest pace in the league since the injury to Cousins. Otto Porter is also questionable with a hip injury, and if he can’t go Beal could be forced into a massive workload. So far this season, Beal has averaged 42.34 FanDuel points per game with both Porter and Wall off the court:
He would be tough to avoid on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
SF features three stud options at the top today, but one clearly stands out above the rest. Kevin Durant torched the Spurs yesterday after Curry left with an injury, posting 66.75 DraftKings points in just under 39 minutes. Overall, he’s seen a 4.2 percentage point usage bump in games without Curry this season, resulting in an average of 49.46 DraftKings points per game:
The Warriors are on the second leg of a back-to-back today against the Trail Blazers, but that actually works in our favor: Durant’s price was already set before the Curry injury, so he remains very affordable across the industry. He’s going to be especially tough to avoid on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Durant’s presence will likely result in lower ownership for both LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but they’re both in excellent spots in their own right. LeBron has been outstanding since the team moved on from Isaiah Thomas, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. The Cavs rank third on the slate with an implied team total of 114.25, and LeBron has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the trio at +4.02. Giannis has a matchup with the Knicks, who have been a disaster defensively since losing Kristaps Porzingis to a season-ending injury. The Bucks are currently implied for 112 points, which represents an increase of approximately 7.5 points when compared to their seasonal average (104.6). Giannis has also been playing a tremendous amount of minutes recently, seeing at least 37 in eight of his last nine games.
Value
Aaron Gordon has been ruled out for the Orlando Magic, which means that Mario Hezonja will likely enter the starting lineup. Hezonja has been an excellent source of value when filling in for Gordon this season, averaging 28.22 FanDuel points per game:
Those numbers might be a little inflated — some of those games also came with Nikola Vucevic out of the lineup — but he still looks like a nice source of value on a slate loaded with studs.
Fast Break
E’Twuan Moore is another candidate to see an increased workload for the Pelicans. He’s seen a usage bump of 9.2 percent with both Davis and Cousins off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Power Forward
Studs
Draymond Green hasn’t seen much of a boost in fantasy production with Curry out of the lineup this season, but his underlying numbers suggest that good things could be coming. He’s seen a bump of 2.6 percentage points to his usage rate and 6.9 percent to his assist rate in 10 games without Curry:
He also has historically fared well against the Trail Blazers, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 on DraftKings over his last 12 regular season meetings.
Sticking with the injury theme: Nikola Mirotic will almost undoubtedly draw the start for Davis if he’s unable to go, and he’s seen a usage bump of eight percentage points with Davis off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.21 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel in that situation and is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models. That kind of production would make him one of the best values of the day at $6,700.
Value
Mike Scott could have some appeal at the dead minimum on FanDuel on a slate that is currently starved for value. He’s played at least 22.5 minutes in each of his last two games and has averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute on the season. He could see also see a slight boost in playing time if Porter does miss today’s contest.
Fast Break
No one at the PF position on today’s slate has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month than Montrezl Harrell. He’s coming off nearly 31 minutes in his most recent game, which suggests he could be in line for a slightly larger workload moving forward. The Clippers are in an excellent spot today against the Cavs, with their implied team total of 115.25 ranking second on the slate.
Center
Stud
Center seems like the one position that is a little thin at the top today. Most people will likely pay down at the position, which could make someone like Nikola Vucevic intriguing for GPPs. He has an elite matchup with the Sacramento Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.89 on DraftKings. He’s also seen a usage bump of four percentage points with Gordon out of the lineup this season, resulting in an average of 53.76 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He’s extremely enticing on DraftKings, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Values
Emeka Okafor will draw the start at center for the Pelicans and could see a few additional minutes if Davis does sit. He’s averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which should give him a chance of returning value at $3,800 on FanDuel.
Marcin Gortat has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on FanDuel, although it’s almost impossible to trust him at the moment. He’s played no more than 24.5 minutes in each of his past four games, and the Wizards can likely get away with playing a smaller lineup today against the Pelicans.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter’s minutes have been very volatile lately. He played 27 minutes on Tuesday after seeing 23 minutes or fewer in four of the five prior games, so it’s tough to predict with any certainty how much he’ll play today, but he does have a wonderful matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.81 on FanDuel. Their biggest weakness is on the glass, which plays right into Kanter’s biggest strength: He has the third-highest total rebound rate in the league this season.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo credit: Russell Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
