The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game main slate starting at 3:30 pm ET. Instead of the normal positional breakdown, lets break it down game-by-game.
New York Knicks (-1) @ Los Angeles Lakers – 214.5 total
The Knicks have one of the best matchups of the day against the Lakers. The Lakers have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and as a result they’ve allowed an average of 110 points per game. The Knicks’ implied team total of 108 points is the top mark on today’s slate.
Kristaps Porzingis has seen his production drop over the course of the season, resulting in an average of just 1.13 fantasy points per minute over the past month. It hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities, however, as his usage rate of 32.0 percent ranks fifth in the NBA. Today’s matchup seems like an excellent spot for him to get back on track. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74 on DraftKings, where his current $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Outside of Porzingis, the rest of the Knicks look like better plays on FanDuel: Six players have Bargain Ratings of at least 75 percent.
Tim Hardaway leads the group with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent and scored 39.5 fantasy points in just 27 minutes in his last game. He will likely still be on some sort of minute restriction for today’s contest, but he doesn’t need to play much to return value given his average of 1.18 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Enes Kanter has been known to gobble up points and rebounds in bunches and could have a field day against the Lakers’ soft interior defense. His average of 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month trails only Andre Drummond’s among today’s centers. If you’re looking for some leverage off of Kanter in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), consider rostering Kyle O’Quinn instead. He has the same juicy matchup at a significantly lower salary, and head coach Jeff Hornacek has been known to fluctuate his rotation at the center position.
It also might make some sense to have exposure to Michael Beasely in GPPs. He likely won’t play more than 28 minutes, but he’s shown the ability to do a lot of damage in limited playing time of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.88 on FanDuel over his last 10 games, thanks to a gaudy average of 1.28 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
On the Lakers’ side, a lot of their appeal is going to be derived from their current injury situation. Lonzo Ball remains out for today’s contest, while both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram are currently listed as questionable.
If all three players were to sit, look for Jordan Clarkson to be one of the chalkiest options of the day. He scored 47.9 FanDuel points in his last game and has paced the team with a 32.1 percent usage rate with all three players off the court this season.
Kyle Kuzma played 32 minutes on Friday despite dealing with an injury of his own. Ultimately, his fantasy numbers were plagued by shooting just 33 percent from the field, but the increase in playing time was encouraging nonetheless. He’s averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $5,900 if he’s going to continue to play that much moving forward.
Finally, if Ingram and KCP can play — and they did go through shootaround on Saturday — both might be underpriced on FanDuel. Each has a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent, and both could be asked to carry more of the offensive load without Lonzo. People also tend to shy away from rostering players who are returning from injury, which makes them even more appealing from a game theory perspective.
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons (-6) – 208.5 total
The Nets welcomed D’Angelo Russell back to their lineup on Friday, which is going to have a serious impact on their rotation moving forward. Only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (32.5 minutes) and DeMarre Carroll (31 minutes) eclipsed the 30-minute mark, but 10 different Nets did play at least 13 minutes. There’s going to be a lot of night-to-night inconsistency with a team that plays that many guys and is going to make them tough to peg for DFS purposes.
One player who’s role seems safe is Carroll. He’s been a rock for the Nets for the majority of the season, but particularly so over his last 10 games.
Unfortunately, his matchup today with the Pistons is less than ideal. The Pistons rank 10th in defensive efficiency and 21st in pace this season, and the result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.19 for Carroll on FanDuel. Still, he seems like the safest bet on the team to play 30-plus minutes, which gives him one of the higher ceilings.
Spencer Dinwiddie will likely wind up being the most effected by the return of Russell, but he still has a clear path to significant playing time for the time being. He seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
It’s hard to trust anyone else as more than a GPP flier, but Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, and Hollis-Jefferson have all had big games recently. LeVert has the best per-minute output of the group over the past month (1.05 fantasy points per minute), while Hollis-Jefferson and Crabbe figure to have the more secure playing time.
Things look much rosier on the Pistons’ side for today’s matchup. The Nets have officially played at the fifth fastest pace this season, but look for that number to increase with Russell back in the lineup. The Nets have averaged 104 possessions/48 minutes with him in the lineup this season, which would be the fastest pace in the league. They’ve also been significantly worse defensively, allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions, so they’re definitely a team to try and exploit as Russell earns more playing time moving forward.
The Nets have really struggled against opposing centers this season, which could spell big trouble against Andre Drummond. Drummond has played really well of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 11 games. He has the best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate regardless of position at +7.17 and has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings. Paying up for him will be popular.
Tobias Harris has the second best Opponent Plus/Minus on the team at +3.23 on FanDuel. Some poor shooting has hurt Harris’ fantasy numbers recently, but he still figures to be a big part of the offense with Reggie Jackson sidelined. He’s seen the largest usage increase on the team with Jackson off the court this season, resulting in an average of 33.68 FanDuel points per 36 minutes.
Ish Smith has handled the majority of the PG minutes since the Jackson injury and has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games. He should be one of the most popular options at a weak PG position.
Avery Bradley has played a boatload of minutes recently and has finally started to show some positive results. He has one of the worst individual matchups for the Pistons but makes up for it a bit with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on FanDuel.
There are some other options from the Pistons to consider for GPPs as well. Reggie Bullock will likely be the most popular, although he’s played 24 minutes or fewer in back-to-back games. Luke Kennard has seen his playing time trend in the opposite direction, and he’s scored at least 20 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. He could be an intriguing pivot.
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) – 199.5 total
The Pacers have the toughest matchup on the slate, evidenced by a slate-low implied team total of 96.25 points. One guy who still deserves serious consideration, however, is Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis has played extremely well in games without Myles Turner this season, averaging 36.79 FanDuel points per 36 minutes.
He’s currently underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Victor Oladipo has been the lifeblood of the Pacers all season, but this seems like as tough of a spot as he’ll face all season (Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.96). That said, the tough matchup could reduce his ownership for GPPs, which is always something worth considering on a short slate.
Thaddeus Young has struggled a bit over his last 10 games on DraftKings.
However, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, seeing at least 35 in four of his last five games. He’s more appealing today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Corey Joseph saw more minutes than Darren Collison at PG in their last game, which has been a semi-regular occurrence over the past month or so, but Collison still seems like the superior fantasy asset given his edge in per-minute production (0.87 vs 0.70). He is slightly more expensive than Joseph across the industry, but he seems like the more likely candidate to have a big day.
Things are much more appealing on the Spurs side of the ball, particularly for their big men. LaMarcus Aldridge has responded well to the Kawhi Leonard injury, scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31 percent in all three of those games as well, and he seems firmly entrenched as the Spurs go-to option with Leonard sidelined indefinitely. He has a wonderful matchup today, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42, and his 10 Pro Trends trail only Drummond’s on DraftKings.
Pau Gasol looks like one of the top values of the day on FanDuel. His current $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and he has an even better matchup than Aldridge. Indiana has struggled with opposing centers all season, giving Gasol an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.20 on FanDuel. He’s played at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games and has averaged a stout 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Kyle Anderson has served as Leonard’s primary replacement at the SF position and for the most part has fared well. He’s averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That would put him on track to return value at his current $5,000 salary on FanDuel.
Outside of those three players, no one else seems like a lock to play even 25 minutes for San Antonio. One player who could be intriguing for GPPs is Dejounte Murray. He’s played at least 22.5 minutes in each of his last two games and has averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month. If he can play minutes in the low 20s again today, he’ll have a chance to be a tournament winner.
Good luck!
News Updates
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Photo Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
