The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Stephen Curry headline the PG position and all sit at least $9,700 on both sites. Westbrook is the most expensive of the three by quite a bit, and he’s failed to hit value in each of his past two games. He has a brilliant matchup today against a Lakers squad that has struggled defensively of late, ranking 19th over the past 15 games and allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions. He’ll likely match up against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but the defense still figures to be worse with Tyler Ennis starting instead of Lonzo Ball. Westbrook missed value in his last game against the Lakers but had been dominant against them in his other recent meetings:
Hitting quickly on the other two guys, Curry has the best matchup against a Bulls team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, but he’s also a double-digit favorite and comes with blowout risk. Wall has a tough matchup against a Hornets team that has ranked sixth in defense over the past 15 games, but he’s also arguably been the best fantasy performer of the three lately, posting a stupid-high +7.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. All three are worthy of GPP exposure – Wall might be the sneakiest.
Value
Jrue Holiday has crushed recently, going for 47.0, 52.8, and 47.3 DraftKings points over his past three games. The most recent two were overtime games, so his stats were likely a bit inflated by playing 41 and 44 minutes, but he still posted a whopping 1.16 DraftKings points per minute during the stretch. The Pelicans are on the second leg of a road back-to-back, although that hasn’t negatively affected Jrue this year; he’s averaged a +3.3 Plus/Minus in six B2Bs this season. After winning three in a row, the Pels are up to an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs, but they’ll still need to fight for every game. Holiday is set to play big minutes again and he’s just $6,700 in a brilliant matchup versus a terrible Hawks team.
Fast Break
On the other side of that game is Dennis Schroder, who has averaged 1.13 FanDuel points over the past month. He owns the top Opponent Plus/Minus mark of the day at +4.24 against a New Orleans squad that ranks 23rd defensively this year.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG studs are certainly less appealing than the PG ones. DeMar DeRozan has missed value in four of his past five games and Lou Williams is due for fantasy regression soon with Blake Griffin back in the lineup. Lou’s usage dipped to 25 percent in his last game. He still ended up with 50 FanDuel points thanks to a super efficient game, but usage will likely win out in the end. As a result, it could be worth it to pay up for a contrarian Tyreke Evans in a GPP. He’s hit value in eight of his past 10 games on FanDuel and he could have a huge role for Memphis today as James Ennis is questionable. In minutes this year without Ennis, Chandler Parsons, and Mike Conley on the floor, Evans has led the team with a massive 30.2 percent usage rate. Evans also has the best matchup of the three high-priced SGs against a Knicks team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency over the past 10 games.
Value
It will be important to monitor the Nuggets’ rotations moving forward. Last night they changed up their starting lineup, going small with Will Barton getting the nod and Nikola Jokic playing center. They played their wings a ton, with Barton going for 42 minutes and Gary Harris producing 42.0 DraftKings points in 37 minutes. The Nuggets are likely at their best with Jokic at that spot. They could elect to go small again tonight, especially if the Clippers are missing DeAndre Jordan, who is questionable with a sprained ankle. Both Barton and Harris are much too cheap on DraftKings, where their $5,500 and $6,000 price tags come with Bargain Ratings of 99 and 97 percent, respectively.
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore got up over 30 minutes in each of his past two games — something he hadn’t done since mid-December. He posted 36.6 FanDuel points in his last game against the Spurs, largely thanks to his ability to rack up defensive statistics. He’s been great in that regard lately, getting 11 steals combined over the past four games. At $5,700 on FanDuel, he’s a fine value against a Pelicans squad that ranks 23rd in offensive turnover rate.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo snapped out of his fantasy funk in a big way last game, scoring 65 DraftKings points thanks to a ridiculous game of 27 points, 20 rebounds, six assists, and two blocks. Per Basketball-Reference, that was the first 20-20 game from a wing since Larry Bird. He’ll look to keep things going against a Heat squad that has been fine defensively this year, ranking 11th in efficiency and allowing 104.6 points/100. Matchups don’t really matter for Giannis, though: Over the past two seasons in 68 games with a below-average Opponent Plus/Minus, he has averaged 50.3 DraftKings points and a +2.41 Plus/Minus. He’s likely a bit too volatile to trust in cash games today, but he showed last game that his ceiling is as big as anyone’s thanks to his ability to rack up literally every statistic. Make sure to buy him on DraftKings, where his low $10,300 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Over his past 10 games, Josh Richardson has averaged a +4.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency. He hasn’t dipped below 30 minutes in 2018, and he could be in for a heavy workload if fellow wing Tyler Johnson, who is doubtful with with a sprained ankle, is ruled out. Richardson averaged 35 minutes a game in three games without TJ this season, and while he posted just a miserable 0.49 FanDuel points per minute in those affairs, he’s been at 0.90 per minute over the past month. He’s a nice value at $5,800 on FanDuel against a Bucks squad that ranks 24th defensively this season, allowing 107.4 points/100.
Fast Break
There are a couple more injury situations to monitor that could affect some value SFs on the slate. The first is in Detroit, where Luke Kennard, Avery Bradley and Stanley Johnson are all questionable. That could lead to extra playing time for Reggie Bullock, who is just $4,000 on FanDuel and had 34.3 points in 34.5 minutes last game. The other injury situation is in Washington, where Markieff Morris is questionable with an ankle injury. In eight games without him this year, Kelly Oubre has averaged 32.4 minutes per game.
Power Forward
Stud
It’s difficult to find two games in a row as good as Anthony Davis’ past two:
Brow scored a combined 160.6 FanDuel points in those and took a whopping 64 combined shots. Of course, those games were overtime affairs, as mentioned above, but it is clear he’s zoned in right now. He’s currently projected for 39 minutes and higher than a 30 percent usage rate in our NBA Models today. He has the nuts matchup against a Hawks team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and rebound rate this season. He’s pricey and will be massively owned after his past two performances, but he’s perhaps the scariest fade on the slate.
Value
Derrick Favors has a massive +5.34 Opponent Plus/Minus mark on DraftKings against a Sacramento Kings team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebound rate. Favors has hit value in seven of his past 10 games and yet he’s still quite affordable at just $6,400 on DraftKings, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating. It’s unclear who he’ll be playing against — more on that in a moment — but they’ll really need his defense, especially with Thabo Sefolosha, who was playing the 4 alongside Favors, now out for the season. In four games without Thabo and Rudy Gobert this year, Favors has averaged 30.7 minutes and 0.95 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
The Kings just announced that they will be resting at least two veterans each game from here on out. Zach Randolph got a DNP-CD last game as a result and it seems likely they won’t rest the same vet twice in a row. ZBo could need to play a lot tonight, especially if Skal Labissiere, who is questionable with a strained left shoulder, is ruled out.
Trey Lyles played less than expected last night with the Nuggets going small. Wilson Chandler ended up played 37.5 minutes as the main 4 in the Jokic-center lineups. It’s unclear how that rotation will shake out tonight — it likely will be affected by Jordan’s status with the Clippers — but both are worth a look at their cheap DraftKings price tags.
Center
Studs
DeMarcus Cousins has one of the largest Opponent Plus/Minus marks on the slate at +5.75 on DraftKings. He has struggled a bit in B2Bs this year, but this matchup is very difficult to fade. As mentioned above, the Hawks are 26th in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate. This is how Boogie has done against bottom-five rebounding teams this year:
This will likely determine the slate: The Pelicans are in a letdown spot in a B2B after playing two straight overtime games. Will that matter or will their Big 3 continue to roll and put up huge fantasy days?
Value
In the first game without Jordan, Willie Reed got 26 minutes of action and crushed value, putting up 42.8 DraftKings points. In the second game, a tougher matchup against the Rockets, he played just 9.5 minutes and scored 6.8 fantasy points. Instead, Montrezl Harrell got 32.2 minutes and posted a +1.94 Plus/Minus. Harrell is likely the safer play of the two if DJ is ruled out again, but make sure to buy him on the right site: He’s much cheaper on DraftKings, where his $4,500 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Update: Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala have been ruled out, which means Jordan Bell will get the start. In six games without Draymond this season, Bell has averaged 24.5 minutes and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. This news also makes the other Warriors studs more appealing, although they’ll also be much more popular in GPPs.
Nikola Jokic is a dominant offensive center and it was nice to see him actually play that position. He dominated last game, putting up 67.0 DraftKings points in 33.2 minutes of action. He posted a sky-high 40.3 percent usage rate and grabbed 18 boards. If the Nuggets are going to start featuring him more, he’s going to be a stud fantasy play.
Good luck!
Photo via Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
