The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook continues to be underpriced across the industry, given his recent production. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his past 10 games, with the lone exception being a blowout where he played just 28 minutes. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.36 on FanDuel and +9.06 on DraftKings over that time frame.
He also has an excellent matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, who have played at the third-fastest pace and rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Thunder lead the slate with an implied team total of 113.25 points and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 on DraftKings.
Value
Jarrett Jack has played at least 28 minutes in four of his past five games, and that kind of playing time should give him a solid chance to return value at his current salary ($4,200). He’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Dallas Mavericks. So far this season, only the Orlando Magic have allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to the position:
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder has seen a salary decrease of $900 over the past month, which makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate today against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Hawks’ current implied team total of 107 points is 3.5 points higher than their season average, and Schroder has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.43.
Dejounte Murray was a major disappointment in his last opportunity to start, but he should get a chance to redeem himself today. Tony Parker will rest – along with a variety of the Spurs’ other regulars – and Murray has been a major force with those players off the floor this season:
Patty Mills will also factor into the PG rotation. He scored over 30 FanDuel points in the last game without Parker. He doesn’t possess the same upside as Murray, but there is a definitely a scenario where he finishes as the more productive player on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker is in a really interesting spot today against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s dominated the basketball since returning from injury, posting a usage rate of 29.0 percent in five of six games. He leads the slate with a whopping 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is the highest mark that we’ve seen all season. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have been excellent values:
He also seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his current $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Booker does have one of the lower Opponent Plus/Minus ratings of the day at -0.05 against the Thunder. But OKC will be without Andre Roberson in this contest, who has graded out as the best wing defender in the league this season per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Given his absence, this matchup probably isn’t as difficult as the numbers make it seem.
Value
Terrence Ferguson has drawn the start for Roberson in each of the past two games, playing at least 31 minutes in both. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41 today against the Phoenix Suns, which makes him really appealing given his minimum salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Danny Green is doubtful for today’s contest, which means that Bryn Forbes will likely draw another start for the Spurs. He played 32 minutes in place of Green in their last contest, which Forbes turned into 28.1 FanDuel points. He’s minimum-priced on FanDuel, which results in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
No SG on today’s slate has been better on a per-minute basis over the past month than Kent Bazemore. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute, which gives him one of the highest ceilings at the position. Unfortunately, his minutes are very volatile, meaning he also has one of the lowest floors. That makes him best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
TJ Warren is currently questionable with an illness that has caused him to miss the Suns’ last game and past two practices. Given that the Suns don’t play until 8 pm ET, there’s a chance Warren will not play today and we won’t receive news on his status until after lineup lock.
While rostering Warren comes with risk, his $6,200 salary on DraftKings is just too cheap given his recent production. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.96 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, including four outings of at least 41 fantasy points in his past eight. His salary has not budged over that time frame. His 11 Pro Trends trail only Booker’s among SF-eligible players on DraftKings.
Value
Kawhi Leonard will get the night off after torching the Suns on Friday, which will likely result in Kyle Anderson drawing the start. Rudy Gay remains sidelined, which will leave the Spurs really shorthanded at the guard and SF positions. So far this season, Anderson has averaged 1.0 DraftKings points per minute with Leonard, Gay, Parker and Green all off the floor:
He looks like one of the strongest values of the day regardless of position.
Fast Break
Courtney Lee continues to provide solid value for DFS players, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent over the past month. His salary has decreased by $500 on DraftKings during that timeframe, resulting in a $4,900 price tag for today’s matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. Lee has been a slam-dunk virtually all season when comparably priced:
That said, there are probably better options out there for GPPs: Lee has scored more than 35 DraftKings points just once in his past 15 games and the Mavericks play at one of the slowest paces in the league.
Paul George could fly a bit under the radar on the slate given all the potential value plays and his mediocre recent production. That makes him a really appealing GPP play against the Phoenix Suns. He leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel while his Opponent Plus/Minus ranks third.
Power Forward
Stud
Most of the Spurs are in play today given their lack of depth, but the offense should be expected to flow through LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s dominated this season with the Spurs’ inactives off the court, averaging a usage rate of 32.7 percent and 43.56 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He’s also very fairly priced on DraftKings at the moment, with his $7,600 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He should rightly be one of the highest-owned plays of the day.
Value
Ersan Ilyasova has been killing it for the Hawks recently, posting a Plus/Minus of at least 7.44 on FanDuel in six of his last seven games:
While Ilyasova is not seeing a glut of minutes – he’s currently projected for 30.7 in our Player Models – he’s made up for it by averaging 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Lakers, (+5.10 Opponent Plus/Minus).
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis has been a major disappointment recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.45 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, he looks like a prime buy-low candidate moving forward. He’s maintained a solid usage rate but has been plagued by a field goal percentage of just 32.6 percent in three games in the month of January. If he can get a little positive regression in that department, Porzingis has a chance to crush his current salary of $8,100. That represents a decrease of $1,800 over his past 10 games and comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Marquese Chriss appears to have been fully unleashed by the Suns’ coaching staff. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games on DraftKings and has played at least 31 minutes in each of his past three. The only caveat is his salary – his price has increased by $1,500 over the past month – but he should still have a good chance to pay it off if he continues to play big minutes.
Center
Stud
There are absolutely no top-end centers on today’s slate. Jusuf Nurkic leads the group with a price tag of $7,500 on FanDuel, but it’s hard to pay that kind of salary for someone who’s played 28.5 minutes or less in four of his past five games. Steven Adams might be the safest bet at the position today against the Phoenix Suns. He leads all centers with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Enes Kanter has a really appealing matchup against the Dallas Mavericks and is another center option who seems underpriced on FanDuel. Kanter is a rebound monster – his rebound percentage of 22.3 percent ranks fourth in the league this season – and the Mavericks have been the NBA’s second-worst rebounding team. Kanter is very tough to trust for cash games, but he has shown a ceiling of 50+ fantasy points on multiple occasions this season.
Fast Break
The Lakers frontcourt has become a bit murky since the return of Brook Lopez, but whoever gets the majority of the minutes at center will have an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. Julius Randle is probably the guy we want to target here: He played 27.5 minutes in the Lakers’ last game and has averaged 1.20 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
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