The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Today’s slate is shaping up to be one of the most interesting of the season. Both the Pistons and Clippers figure to be extremely shorthanded, with neither team likely to have their new players available from yesterday’s trade. This is also the first slate that will feature the Pelicans after the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. John Wall has just been ruled out for the Wizards for the next six weeks with a knee injury. The result should be a lot of value across the board.
That should make paying up for a stud like Russell Westbrook pretty easy. Westbrook has been an absolute beast lately, thanks in part to an average usage rate of 37.1 percent since the start of December. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.72 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which has allowed him to post a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over that time frame. He offers the safest floor in daily fantasy basketball and that doesn’t figure to change today against the Washington Wizards. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66 on DraftKings, where he also has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
In addition to not having Avery Bradley or Tobias Harris available for today’s contest, the Clippers will still be thin at the PG position. Patrick Beverley, Austin Rivers, and Jawun Evans are all out for today’s game, which means that Milos Teodosic will have the opportunity to step into a larger role. He’s been pretty productive this season on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.81 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. He doesn’t need to play a ton of minutes to pay off his current $4,700 salary.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is a bit of an anomaly considering he’s priced at just $5,100. Historically, PGs with a comparable salary and number of Pro Trends have been incredible values:
Rubio is in the top pace up spot of the day against the Golden State Warriors, with the Jazz players owning a pace differential (paceD) of +5.3. The result is an implied team total of 104.25 that represents an increase of roughly three points when compared to their season average (101.4).
The Knicks have one of the best matchups of the day against the Brooklyn Nets and their resulting implied team total of 110.5 puts them in the vicinity of the elite offensive teams on today’s slate. One Knick of interest is Jarrett Jack. He rarely plays more than 28 minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four games on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Studs
SG is absolutely loaded on today’s slate. James Harden is the highest priced option on both sites, and it will be interesting to see where he ranks in the hierarchy of superstars. He hasn’t exactly dominated since returning from injury, hitting value just twice in six contests while posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.87. That said, things are looking up for Harden. He played 38 minutes and posted a usage rate of 38.7 percent in his most recent contest, both of which represent increases when compared to his season averages. He also has an elite matchup today against the Orlando Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.88 on FanDuel.
Of course, none of that matters if Chris Paul doesn’t suit up for today’s contest. Harden has dominated with him off the court this season, averaging a usage rate of 38.1 percent and 53.34 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
It would be hard not to consider him the top stud of the day in that situation on FanDuel, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
There are two other SGs who deserve consideration as elite plays today. Bradley Beal should assume top dog status for the Wizards with Wall sidelined. Beal has seen the largest usage increase on the team with Wall off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 37.32 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.52 today, but that likely overstates how difficult this matchup actually is. The Thunder have been an elite defensive team with Andre Roberson on the floor, but without him, their defense allows a putrid 113.3 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, the Kings are currently dead last in defensive efficiency and they allow 109.9 points per 100 possessions.
Lou Williams is in a position to dominate the basketball today for the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s seen a usage bump of 5.6 percent with Griffin and the injured Clippers off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 42.53 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He’s the best value of the trio today on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Sticking with the Clippers, Tyrone Wallace is another candidate to see big minutes at a relatively cheap salary. He’s currently projected for 33.6 minutes at just $4,400 on FanDuel, as wing players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically been solid values:
Fast Break
It will be tough to ignore Eric Gordon at $5,400 on FanDuel if Paul does not play. So far this season, he’s averaged 28.73 FanDuel points per game in games without CP3:
The Rockets will also be down Trevor Ariza for today’s contest, so Gordon has the potential to see a really big workload if Paul sits.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s slate features LeBron James and Kevin Durant, but it still feels like a slate where most people will choose to pay down at the position.
LeBron has picked up his play a bit recently, but he’s still been a disaster over his last 10 games on DraftKings:
He has a tough matchup against the Detroit Pistons, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.15. The Pistons have also been a much better defensive team with Harris and Bradley off the court this season (106.8 points per 100 possessions) than they have been with both on the court (115.5).
Durant is in an even worse spot than LeBron against the Utah Jazz. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.76 on FanDuel, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 112.75 is drastically lower than their season average in games with Curry in the lineup. Considering that some of the best value options of the day are SFs, it doesn’t really make sense to roster either of these players unless you’re specifically looking to be contrarian in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Not only are the Pistons going to be really shorthanded today, they also have one of the best matchups possible against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have been a nightmare defensively all season and opposing SFs have averaged a significantly higher Plus/Minus against Cleveland than any other team this season:
Both Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson are projected to play 33+ minutes against this putrid defense, and both players have seen solid usage bumps with Bradley, Harris, and Reggie Jackson off the floor this season. Bullock is the better value on FanDuel, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, but playing both players together is definitely viable.
Fast Break
Wesley Johnson doesn’t have nearly as good of a matchup as the Pistons’ guys, but he should also see a nice boost in playing time today against the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.26 on FanDuel over his last 10 games and has seen a usage bump of 2.7 percent with Grififn off the court this season. The only caveat with Johnson is that Danilo Gallinari could return from injury today, which could potentially cut into his playing time.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis presents an interesting dilemma on today’s slate. On one hand, the injury to Cousins is obviously a huge boon for his fantasy value. He’s dominated so far this season with Cousins off the court, posting a usage rate of 33.5 percent while averaging over 59 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He also has a wonderful matchup today against the Sacramento Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09 on DraftKings. The real issue today with Davis is his salary, which has been jacked up across the industry. It’s particularly troublesome at $12,500 on FanDuel, where Davis has historically struggled to pay off a comparable price tag:
He’s a much stronger play today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Mason Plumlee has been ruled out of today’s contest with a calf injury, which means that Trey Lyles will have the opportunity to start and potentially play heavy minutes. He’s been a beast recently, averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, so the thought of him receiving more minutes is extremely appealing for fantasy purposes. He has a tough matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs, but he might be too good a value to pass up on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Anthony Tolliver is yet another member of the Pistons who is likely to see a larger workload today. He has arguably the best matchup of the bunch, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.43 on FanDuel and +7.30 on DraftKings. He’s a better value today on the former, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris has put together two big fantasy performances in a row, going for at least 35.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. His biggest hurdle this season has been consistent playing time, but that doesn’t figure to be much of an issue moving forward given the injury to Wall. He’s currently projected for 33.2 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel over the past month.
Center
Studs
Andre Drummond figures to be one of the biggest losers of the Griffin trade, but he’ll have one last hurrah today against the Cavaliers. Luckily for him, the Cavs are a strong matchup for centers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09 for Drummond on DraftKings. He could also wind up seeing a few additional minutes in today’s contest, which could make a huge difference given his average of 1.48 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Like most centers, he’s a better value today on DraftKings (99 percent Bargain Rating).
Nikola Jokic also has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings, where he leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends. Historically, a comparable number of Pro Trends has led to solid production:
He does have a tough matchup against the San Antonio Spurs – they’re currently second in the league in defensive efficiency – but they haven’t been as tough on centers as they have against other positions. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.19 for Jokic, who offers lots of upside at his current reduced salary.
Value
Tristan Thompson put up a clunker in his most recent game but still figures to be a big part of the Cavs rotation moving forward. He’s averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his current $4,000 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
With Griffin now gone, DeAndre Jordan seems more likely than ever to find a new home before the NBA trade deadline. In the interim, however, he should enjoy life without Griffin in LA. His rebound rate increases to a stout 28.2 percent with Griffin off the court this season. Jordan averaged 38.61 DraftKings points per game with Griffin out of the lineup:
Good luck!
Photo via Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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