The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving has been a strong fantasy asset of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last games. He’s also dealt with an injury during that time frame, which has resulted in his salary dropping to a very reasonable $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,900 on DraftKings for today’s matchup with the Pacers. It’s far from an elite matchup for the Celtics, but their implied team total of 104.75 does represent a slight increase when compared to their seasonal average (103.1).
Value
De’Aaron Fox left Monday’s game early after rolling his ankle, but he was able to go through a full practice on Wednesday. Assuming that he’s able to go in today’s contest, he should see a large roll after the Kings moved George Hill at the trade deadline. Fox played 31 and 35 minutes in the two games prior to leaving early on Monday and has averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a much better value today on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
The Cavaliers overhauled virtually their entire roster yesterday, moving on from six players at the trade deadline. That includes two PGs in Isaiah Thomas and Derrick Rose, which means that Jose Calderon could assume a larger role with the Cavs reinforcements unlikely to join the squad today. He has an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.73, and his $3,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Ricky Rubio has been an absolute monster over his past 10 games:
Many of those games have come with Rodney Hood out of the lineup, and the Jazz made that a permanent solution by shipping him off to Cleveland yesterday. Rubio has averaged a stout 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 33.1 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s another PG who seems underpriced on DraftKings, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Rajon Rondo has one of the better matchups of the day at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 on FanDuel against the Philadelphia 76ers. That number might actually undersell how good this matchup is if Joel Embiid were to miss today’s contest (currently questionable). Philly has played at a faster pace with their star big man off the court this season, and their defense has allowed a dreadful 111.5 points per 100 possessions.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden headlines the SG position on today’s slate, and he’s in an interesting spot against the Denver Nuggets. On one hand, the Rockets have the top implied team total on the slate at 115.25 points. Harden has been a nice value at his current salary with a comparable implied team total over the past two seasons:
On the other hand, the Nuggets have been tough on opposing SGs this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.36 for Harden on FanDuel. He still features one of the highest ceilings on the slate, but there are likely other superstars in better spots.
After Harden, the No. 2 option likely comes down to which site you’re playing on. Victor Oladipo stands out on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He hasn’t been the same player of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.70 over his past 10 games. Even so, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past two games, and his salary has decreased by $600 over that time frame. His current $8,000 salary is as low as it’s been over the past two months, which makes him appealing even in a difficult matchup against the Boston Celtics.
Jrue Holiday looks like the preferred No. 2 option on FanDuel. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent in a strong matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s also seen a massive bump in both usage and fantasy value with DeMarcus Cousins off the court this season.
Values
Both JR Smith and Kyle Korver have the potential to see extended minutes today for the Cavs. Korver has been slightly better on a per-minute basis over the past month, while Smith is currently projected to play more minutes. Both options are better values on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent.
Fast Break
Lou Williams has failed to return value in each of his past three games, and FanDuel has responded by dropping his salary by more than $2,000 over that time span. He has the potential to be a major value at his current $6,800 salary given his production with Blake Griffin off the court this season.
Zach LaVine has been awesome since returning from injury for the Bulls, averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings. He’s cracked the 31-minute mark in each of his past two games, which makes him a nice potential value at $6,100.
Small Forward
Stud
Unleash LeBron James. With Thomas out of town and Kevin Love still hurt, the coast is clear for LeBron to assume a massive role for the Cavs today. LeBron has seen the largest bump in usage and fantasy production with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 54.8 FanDuel points per 36 minutes.
Of course, those won’t be the only two players missing today for the Cavs, which means LeBron could also see some additional playing time. He also has an elite matchup against the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.17. He’s going to be really difficult to avoid today on FanDuel, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Sticking with the Cavs theme, Cedi Osman figures to be a much larger part of their rotation down the stretch. He’s actually been a solid producer when given a chance over the past month, averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute. He’s priced at the dead minimum across the industry, which makes him possibly the most appealing of all the Cavs punts on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo could be an intriguing pivot from LeBron for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on DraftKings. He’s priced at $10,500, which makes him $1,600 cheaper than LeBron. He’s been the superior producer of the two over the past month, averaging 1.46 fantasy points per minute, and his current salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Taurean Prince has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four contests, which makes him intriguing at just $4,500 on FanDuel. He has an elite matchup against the Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.35.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has the potential to be in an amazing spot today against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pels are a great matchup to begin with, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.12 for Simmons and an implied team total of 113 points for the 76ers. He also stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Embiid is ruled out. So far this season, Simmons has seen a usage bump of 3.6 percent with Embiid off the court.
Value
Jeff Green figures to be the No. 2 option offensively for the Cavs today. He’s averaged 0.82 fantasy points per minute this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21 against the Hawks. He’s a much better value today on FanDuel, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
No one on the 76ers has seen a larger bump in fantasy value in games without Embiid than Dario Saric. He’s averaged over 35 DraftKings points per game in that situation, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +11.90.
He’s also in an elite spot against the Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.02. He’ll be tough to avoid on DraftKings if Embiid does sit given his Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Zach Randolph should continue to see increased minutes with Skal Labissiere currently sidelined. He’s been a really solid per-minute contributor this season, averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, so any additional playing time could result in a big performance. He’s delivered a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.
Center
Stud
On a slate with tons of value, paying up for an elite center will likely be a popular strategy. Anthony Davis headlines the position, and he’s been a really nice value since the injury to Cousins. He failed to return value in his most recent contest against the Jazz, but prior to that he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his five previous games. His salary has also come down a bit since then, which only increases his appeal in a nice spot against the 76ers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26, and that number would deserve to be substantially higher if Embiid doesn’t suit up. Philly was the worst team in the league last season against opposing centers after losing Embiid to injury.
Value
Another position, another value option for the Cavs. Tristan Thompson might have the best matchup of the bunch today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71 against the Hawks, who have been the worst defensive rebounding team in the league, which plays right into one of Thompson’s biggest strengths.
Fast Break
As usual, there are a variety of elite centers who stand out as strong values on DraftKings:
Andre Drummond has the best matchup of the bunch, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.75 against the Los Angeles Clippers. Drummond has also been a dominant force recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +11.96 over his last 10 games.
Rudy Gobert also has some intrigue as a mid-range option. He played 37 minutes in his last game and has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month. If he plays that much again today, he offers a lot of upside at just $6,800.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
