Saturday presents a four-game slate that begins at 3pm ET. The games are staggered to begin 2.5 hours after the previous one starts. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall is the most expensive point guard on the slate, and when the Wizards have been road underdogs this season Wall has been underwhelming (per our Trends tool):
In two road games against the Hawks this year, Wall recorded 39.75 and 38.5 DraftKings points. He was limited to 30 minutes in both games for various reasons, and through two postseason games he leads all players with 10.5 fastbreak points and 9.5 fouls drawn per game. The Hawks have not been able to contain Wall, and if that continues then Wall may provide a distinct advantage in tournaments, as he doesn’t lead his position in projected ownership. Wall costs at least $1,700 more than the next point guard-only option on DraftKings, but the disparity on FanDuel is close enough to focus on Wall in cash games.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Stephen Curry leads all point guards with a 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month, and he hasn’t recorded fewer than 42.25 DraftKings points in 13 straight games. Kevin Durant missed most of those games, and it’s possible he could sit again tonight. Many of the Warriors could vacillate between cash game entities and elite GPP plays depending on the status of Durant, but Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green were all limited to 30 minutes in the last game sans Durant. Curry offers the highest floor on the Warriors, a team currently implied for a slate-best 111.5 points (per the Vegas Dashboard).
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Parker are the cheapest starting point guards on the slate, and Parker has been unreliable on the road. Brogdon’s salary is cheaper on DraftKings, and he’s appropriately priced based on his recent production and playing time.
Brandon Jennings ($2,900 on FanDuel) and Andrew Harrison ($2,900 on DraftKings) are cheap backup point guards who offered significant value in their last game. Jennings accumulated the majority of his stats in a five-minute stretch at the start of the fourth quarter while Harrison played the final six minutes of a blowout win. Harrison may play more minutes than Jennings tonight, but neither is a lock to duplicate his production from last game. They’re most appealing in GPPs in case Wall struggles on the road or Conley deals with foul trouble.
Fast Break
Mike Conley: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, but with Zach Randolph on the court Conley has been limited to 0.76 DraftKings points per minute and a team-low -16.3 percent effective field goal mark (per the On/Off tool).
Conley: DFS Scouting Report
Damian Lillard: When priced between $8,000 and $8,500 on DraftKings this year, Lillard averaged a +6.40 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 65.2 percent Consistency Rating. However, one of those games was a 35.0-point performance at home against the Warriors. Lillard’s salary-implied point total is 39.15, and barring another blowout loss he projects at least to break even at his reduced salary.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo costs $11,000 on FanDuel, and he may be worth it based on the alternatives at shooting guard but not his postseason production. He averaged a -4.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 33.3 percent Consistency Rating in the nine games this year in which he was at least $11,000. Still in the two games in which he’s played at least 38 minutes this series, Antetokounmpo has exceeded today’s salary-implied point total.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Tim Hardaway Jr.‘s salary has decreased to $5,000 on DraftKings for the first time since early March, and coach Mike Budenholzer is intent on keeping the same starting lineup. Hardaway Jr. doesn’t offer stable production or a solid base for cash games due to his streaky nature, but among the shooting guards in his price range he offers the highest floor and projected minutes.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal: He’s struggled with his shot in two straight games, yet he’s registered a cumulative +12.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s the only shooting guard on the slate with a positive Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and after duds from DeMar DeRozan and C.J. McCollum their last time out Beal may offer the safest floor among the high-priced shooting guards other than Antetokounmpo.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Wayne Selden: James Ennis replaced Selden in Game 3’s starting lineup, but because Ennis got into foul trouble Selden started the third quarter and managed to play a series-high 28 minutes. Selden costs $2,600 on FanDuel, and if the same script plays out in Game 4 Selden and Ennis will likely split playing time.
Small Forwards
Studs
Kevin Durant is questionable for the second straight game, but he did practice yesterday. We may not learn his status until well after lineups lock, which will limit his appeal to GPPs. His absence will likely elevate the ownership numbers for Curry, Thompson, Green, and Andre Iguodala, which can be reviewed with our DFS Ownership Dashboard. Durant offers a 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he costs $200 more than Kawhi Leonard, who is the perfect pivot in cash games. Leonard was limited to 30 minutes in Game 3’s loss, but he still scored 30 DraftKings points while getting in foul trouble during the first quarter. Coach Gregg Popovich already played Leonard 40 minutes in Game 2, proving that Leonard possesses the requisite floor to utilize in cash games.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Michael Beasley replaced Mirza Teletovic in the rotation during Game 3’s win, and he provided 16.6 FanDuel points in 20.27 minutes at $4,400 on FanDuel. His salary was reduced to $1,800 on FanDuel, which comes with a salary-implied total of 5.76 FanDuel points. As cheap as he is, Beasley still might be better in GPPs than cash games.
Andre Iguodala played fewer minutes in the game Durant missed, but he was far more productive. He’s also only shooting-guard eligible on DraftKings, and his salary has already begun to inflate. If Durant, Matt Barnes, and Shaun Livingston are unable to play, Iguodala can make a case for exposure in all formats, but if Durant is available then Iguodala may resort to his passive ways on offense, which limited him to 11.5 DraftKings points in 32.7 minutes in the series opener.
Fast Break
Evan Turner: In two starts, Turner logged 0.8 FanDuel points per minute, a slight improvement from his season average. Turner also ranks first on the Blazers with a 25 percent assist rate and 53.9 percent true shooting percentage this postseason. Because he’s not reliant on scoring, Turner offers more variety in his ability to accrue stats, thus elevating his floor.
Khris Middleton: He combined facilitating with shooting in Game 3, and even though it was a blowout win Middleton played 34.5 minutes. Should the game remain close today, Middleton will likely play around 40 minutes, as he did in the first two games of the series. He leads all players in projected minutes (per our Player Models).
Power Forwards
Stud
Draymond Green is the most expensive power forward on the slate, and he costs a season-high $8,800 on FanDuel. In the small amount of time Durant has been off the court this postseason, Green has led the Warriors with 1.59 FanDuel points per minute and a 38.2 percent assist rate. Since we probably won’t have a concrete update on Durant prior to lineup lock, Green profiles as a tournament play. He presently is tied for fourth at his position on DraftKings in projected ownership and second in points per minute.
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Serge Ibaka was one of three Raptors starters to record fewer than 15 FanDuel points in Game 3. Coach Dwane Casey replaced Jonas Valanciunas at the start of the third quarter with Cory Joseph, shifting Ibaka to center. A similar alignment may occur again tonight, which could force Ibaka to play more than his customary 36 minutes. His dud on Thursday could reduce his ownership, but he’s among the cheapest power forwards projected to play at least 30 minutes, and he already displayed the ability to produce close to 40 DraftKings points in the first two games of the playoffs.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris: He picked up five fouls in 16 minutes in Game 2, ending his streak of exceeding salary-based expectations against the Hawks. He may see reduced ownership based on the poor performance, and since Ibaka costs roughly the same salary either pairing the two or pivoting to Morris is a way to construct a unique lineup.
Zach Randolph: Coach David Fizdale hasn’t confirmed Randolph’s presence in tonight’s starting lineup, but after a win in Game 3 Randolph will likely remain the starting power forward. His salary rose to $6,500 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he was guarded in Game 3 primarily by Pau Gasol, who covered Marc Gasol in the opener — which led to 44.0 FanDuel points from Marc. Whoever is guarded by Pau will likely be the featured weapon on offense, and since Randolph was less destructive than Marc the elder Gasol may spend his time on Randolph for the second straight game.
Centers
Stud
Marc Gasol hit his upper, middle, and lower bound through the first three games of the playoffs, and with Randolph back in the starting lineup the Grizzlies have played at a slower pace and Gasol has experienced a -2.3 percentage point usage rate differential when sharing the court with Randolph. Gasol is one of two centers on FanDuel projected to play more than 28 minutes, which strengthens the case for using him in cash games.
Value
Greg Monroe costs $5,500 on DraftKings, and he ranks second on the Bucks with a 27.9 percent usage rate this postseason. Although he’s been limited to 23.6 minutes per game, he’s averaged 33.17 DraftKings points. Among all players on either side of the matchup, Monroe has recorded the highest rebound rate (23 percent), aided by the Raptors’ 45.1 percent effective field goal mark.
Fast Break
Marcin Gortat: Ian Mahinmi won’t play for at least two more games, extending Gortat’s value — barring foul trouble. The Hawks averaged 38.5 free-throws in the first two games, which is 13.6 more than their regular season average. Gortat has recorded two straight double-doubles, although his production has been buoyed by his five blocks.
JaVale McGee: He’s played fewer than 23 minutes through two games, and he recorded a total of 48 DraftKings points against a Blazers team starting Noah Vonleh at center. The Blazers have been blocked a postseason-high 21 times through two games, tied with the Celtics and Rockets, who have played three games. McGee’s playing time is constantly in flux, but over his last six games he has handily exceeded 14.65 DraftKings points — today’s salary-implied total.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
