Saturday provides a four-game main slate commencing at 3pm ET. Three of the four matchups have averaged a pace of fewer than 94 possessions per 48 minutes this season. The pace of 90.13 in four games between the Grizzlies and Spurs is lower than any team’s average since the 2008-09 season, and three of the four games on the slate presently have a Vegas total under 200. Half the teams are implied to score fewer than 100 points. Playoff basketball is here.
Point Guards
Studs
The point guard position is stacked today. Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Kyle Lowry are separated by $400 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Irving costs the least on DraftKings and the most on FanDuel — improving his case as a cash play on DraftKings and GPP (guaranteed prize pools) pivot on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating is one percent.
Paul, Irving, and Lowry claim the worst Opponent Plus/Minus at their position among projected starters:
In seven games against the Pacers since last season, Irving has averaged 40.68 DraftKings points and exceeded salary-based expectations in six games. He’s the youngest of these three point guards, and his playing time was limited in the postseason last year after he missed significant time following knee surgery. Irving has been dealing with a bit of knee soreness recently, and that may increase his risk and lower his ownership in GPPs.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Lowry has successfully navigated the Bucks’ stingy point guard defense this season, averaging 40.08 DraftKings points in three meetings. However, since returning from thumb surgery, Lowry has converted just 8-of-24 of his 3-pointers. Lowry is the most expensive option on DraftKings and cheapest option on FanDuel of the three guards, making him the anti-Kyrie.
Lowry: DFS Scouting Report
Paul faces the stingiest defense, which may be reflective of his 99 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He hit his stride over the last eight games, averaging a +8.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus while playing more than 35 minutes on two occasions. His ownership may lag behind that of Lowry and Irving, which can be exploited in GPPs. Ownership, on the whole, can be viewed on our Ownership dashboard shortly after lock.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Malcolm Brogdon and Cory Joseph are two potential options that cost no more than $5,000 on DraftKings.
Joseph appeared to cement his place in the rotation when Lowry returned from a wrist injury, and in the game Lowry played 42 minutes, Joseph played 26 minutes as a key figure in the Raptors’ three-guard lineups. Because Raptors coach Dwane Casey doesn’t shy away from playing Lowry, Joseph, and DeMar DeRozan together, Bucks coach Jason Kidd will have ample reason to keep Brogdon on the court. It’s unclear if Brogdon’s playing time remains capped following a lengthy absence with a back issue. If you project Brogdon and Joseph to play similar minutes, Joseph may provide more value at a discount of $1,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tony Parker played more than 30 minutes in three of the Spurs’ final four playoff games last year, and his minutes were limited in the first round due to a point differential of +88 in the four-game sweep of the Grizzlies. Parker has provided more value at home this year, and when he’s had at least two days rest, he’s averaged at least 26 minutes per game. Parker doesn’t offer much of a ceiling in GPPs, but he’s a steady producer worth considering in cash games as a punt option.
Fast Break
Mike Conley: He could be guarded by Parker, Danny Green, and/or Kawhi Leonard. He’s been solid against the Spurs, averaging a +4.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus in the last 10 games. Alternatively, when the Grizzlies have been implied to score no more than 93 points over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 29.62 DraftKings points in 13 instances.
Jeff Teague: In four games against the Cavs this season, Teague averaged 43.94 DraftKings points. In eight postseason games as a member of the Hawks, Teague averaged 30.50 DraftKings points on 37.5 percent Consistency against the Cavs. He’s dealing with a minor ankle sprain, which limits his appeal to GPPs despite the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus among projected starters.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan are the most expensive options at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Antetokounmpo averaged 48.88 DraftKings points in four games against the Raptors this season, but he was held to 42.5 DraftKings points in the only meeting following the All-Star break. In his last postseason series, Antetokounmpo’s minutes fluctuated violently, ranging from 51 in a double-overtime loss to 26 in a two-point loss. He can easily approach 40 minutes tonight, and he ranks second in projected minutes and DraftKings points per minute this season.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
DeRozan credited Bucks assistant coach Eric Hughes, a former assistant coach for DeRozan, with limiting the All-Star wing in the previous matchup to 11 field goal attempts and a usage rate of 28.5 percent — his fourth-lowest mark of the season — in three games overall this year. In the last nine games against the Bucks, DeRozan has averaged a -6.91 DraftKings Plus/Minus. In 31 career playoff games, DeRozan has averaged at least 38.3 minutes per game. His production on a per-36 minute basis over the last two postseasons has landed at 30.56 DraftKings points, or 7.09 points below today’s salary-based expectation.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
The problem with fading DeRozan on DraftKings is the disparity between his floor and the floors of every other available shooting guard. The same applies to Antetokounmpo on FanDuel. The rest of the options boil down to fringe players who provide value defensively or as spot-up threats; DeRozan and Antetokounmpo will likely be the top combination on FanDuel, and both presently are projected for ownership of at least 41 percent in FanDuel GPPs. Because a few of the Raptors, including DeRozan, are dealing with an illness, fading DeRozan in GPPs is one way to differentiate your approach in tournaments.
Values
The two reserves on Indiana, C.J. Miles and Lance Stephenson, both cost less than $4,000 on DraftKings. Stephenson played at least 20 minutes in the last five games of the regular season as the primary playmaker in the second unit, and Miles dominated the Cavs less than two weeks ago, recording 42.0 DraftKings points in 33.7 minutes. Stephenson leads the Pacers with a 26.3 percent assist rate when on the court, and Miles profiles more as a GPP option due to his reliance on 3-point shooting.
Fast Break
Rodney Hood: Gordon Hayward has mostly been guarded by Luc Mbah a Moute this season when the Jazz and Clippers have played, and when the two shared the court, Hayward converted 10-of-31 shots. When Hayward shared the court with DeAndre Jordan, he attempted seven total shots within nine feet in 78 total minutes. Hood provides a leverage option at shooting guard, but he’s also been muted against J.J. Redick and the Clippers this season.
Small Forwards
Studs
Small forward is loaded with the four most-expensive players on DraftKings and two of the three most-expensive options on FanDuel.
The Cavs are implied to score a slate-best 108.75 points, and among playoff teams, the Pacers rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency on the road. In three games against the Pacers this season, LeBron James averaged 32.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.0 assists in 40.8 minutes. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaged 54.5 DraftKings points per game against the Pacers. James’ projected floor is roughly 10 points higher than anyone else’s on the slate, and he’s a near-lock for at least 40 minutes after resting the final two games of the regular season.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
With Tony Allen off the court and Conley and Marc Gasol on the court since the All-Star break, the Grizzlies’ Defensive Rating of 110.7 would have ranked 27th in the league. With Allen on the court, Kawhi Leonard was limited to 9-of-23 shooting and a 29.6 percent usage rate; with Allen on the bench, Leonard converted 7-of-12 3-pointers and recorded a 35.1 percent usage rate. In the most recent game between the Spurs and Grizzlies, Allen did not play and Leonard produced 57.4 FanDuel points in 39.7 minutes. Leonard is the cheapest options among the studs, and now that Allen has been ruled out, his floor elevates significantly.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Khris Middleton ranks fifth among small forwards in projected playing time, and that also places him in the top-10 in the Players Models in that category. He has struggled with his shot recently, but the one time he received at least two days off in March, he responded with 38.1 FanDuel points on the road in 32.6 minutes.
The Bucks have allowed the most corner 3-point attempts and makes this season. P.J. Tucker has attempted 153 3-pointers from the corner — the third-most in the NBA this year. He’ll likely get minutes to help guard Antetokounmpo, and in the last game against the Bucks, he provided 18.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes. He’s been priced down to $3,400 on DraftKings, where he offers dual eligibility at power forward, but he’s reportedly dealing with an illness.
Fast Break
Paul George: He’s priced in between Kawhi and LeBron, but his salary is closer to that of James, which makes Paul more of a leverage play. The Cavs’ defensive woes may not have been fixed over the last two days, and George leads all small forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus. George is also a solid option at power forward on DraftKings, where he costs at least $1,900 more than the rest of the field.
George: DFS Scouting Report
Tony Snell: He costs the minimum on DraftKings, and he’s in line for significant minutes in a matchup that has seen him average 17.65 DraftKings points this season. In those four games, Snell averaged 29.7 minutes and 2.5 3-pointers per game.
Power Forwards
Stud
Blake Griffin and Kevin Love are the two most-expensive options on both platforms, and they cost roughly the same.
In seven games against the Pacers since last season, Love averaged 40.57 DraftKings points, and per our Trends tool, when Love has had at least two days of rest this season, he’s averaged 43.6 DraftKings points on 75 percent Consistency — production that includes an 8.0-point dud against the Warriors in mid-January. When Love shared the court with Thaddeus Young this year, he averaged a 28.8 percent usage rate and converted 15-of-28 shots.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Griffin has recorded a 27.8 percent usage rate overall this season, but that’s dropped to 22.7 percent in four games against the Jazz — one of which occurred with CP3 sidelined. In two games against the Jazz in March — both of which were played at a pace of 92.76 possessions per 48 minutes — Griffin averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, or 0.39 points below his season average. Over the last two postseasons, Griffin has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, and his playing time was limited in the postseason last year after he missed extended time with a quad issue and fractured hand. In the postseason two years ago, Griffin played at least 40 minutes in eight of the first nine games. If he maintains his per-minute production against the Jazz this season in 40 minutes, you can expect around 33.2 DraftKings points, or 2.95 points below salary-based expectations.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Love profiles as the safer cash-game option due to past performance and Opponent Plus/Minus, and he costs more than Griffin. Both are cheaper on DraftKings, where Griffin possesses the higher ceiling.
Values
Marreese Speights recorded 3.0 and 33.0 DraftKings points in the last two games against the Jazz. In the second game, he played the final 17 minutes in a 13-point win and exceeded 22 minutes played for the sixth time all year. His production varies, but he costs $2,500 on DraftKings, worthy of consideration as a flier for his ability to stretch the floor against Rudy Gobert. Speights is the backup center, and he’ll likely receive around 14 minutes.
Thaddeus Young ended the season on nine straight games exceeding salary-based expectations, including a 29.8 FanDuel point performance against the Cavs in 28.5 minutes. He’s still dealing with a hurt shooting wrist, but when the Pacers have been implied to score at least 100 points this season, Young has responded with 23.18 FanDuel points on average.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka: When Ibaka has received at least one day of rest this season, he’s averaged 29.96 DraftKings points. On zero days rest, he’s averaged a -0.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s expected to see minutes at center, and the Raptors will have two more days of rest following this game.
Centers
Stud
Rudy Gobert is the most expensive center on the slate, but with many players claiming dual eligibility at center, he’s not a high priority. Over the last two games against the Clippers, he recorded 31.0 and 48.5 DraftKings points. Over a longer sample (10 games), Gobert has averaged 26.05 DraftKings points on 30 percent Consistency.
Value
Pau Gasol will likely come off the bench and face an artificial minutes limit. In the last three times he failed to play more than 19 minutes, he averaged 23.1 FanDuel points, which is 2.41 points greater than his salary-implied point total today. Coming off the bench allows Gasol more offensive freedom in the second unit, and when the Spurs faced the Grizzlies on April 4th, he produced 29.7 FanDuel points in 31.2 minutes.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: He’s been priced down to $6,800 on DraftKings, and he’s consistently received 33-34 minutes per game in the last three postseasons — hence the 14 minutes Speights should be in line to play. Jordan and Gobert have averaged the same point-per-minute production this season, but Gobert costs $1,500 more on DraftKings at a similar minute projection.
Jonas Valanciunas: He scored six of the Raptors’ first nine points and grabbed three rebounds in the first four minutes against the Bucks on March 4th. He was undeterred by the presence of Thon Maker, and Valanciunas has not produced less than 25 FanDuel points in the last seven games he has played at least 26 minutes.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
