Saturday brings a seven-game main slate at 8pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers
The Nets are on the second leg of a road back-to-back and remain a team to target, as they rank first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions.
It was certainly frustrating last night to see cash-game locks Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert put up duds while teammates George Hill and Derrick Favors randomly exploded for big games . . .
. . . but stay process-oriented. Those guys were still good plays and the Nets remain a great team to target in DFS.
Damian Lillard will be incredibly popular as a result, and he’s been excellent of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and averaging a +7.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus during that time. He did struggle in their first meeting this year . . .
. . . but overall he’s done well in positive matchups (per our Trends tool):
Lillard: DFS Scouting Profile
C.J. McCollum will also be quite popular against the Nets: He put up 46 DK points against them in their first meeting and has an incredibly juicy one-on-one matchup against Randy Foye (per our Matchups tool):
In fact, just about all of the top-five Blazers are viable either in cash or guaranteed prize pools. Both Maurice Harkless . . .
. . . and Al-Farouq Aminu are solid cash-game options, as they’ve both posted 90 percent Consistency Ratings over the past 10 games and remain cheap, especially on FD, where they have 93 and 81 percent Bargain Ratings.
And, of course, let’s not forget about new starting center Jusuf Nurkic, who exploded last game against a very tough Thunder frontcourt for 51.4 FD points in 37.7 minutes. He accumulated five blocks in that contest and has looked re-energized at his new home. Centers against the Nets continue to do very well (Gobert’s surprising dud last night notwithstanding):
On the other side, the Nets (although remarkably unsexy as DFS options) did well against the Blazers in their first meeting:
That said, while Portland overall has an awful Defensive Rating of 108.9 on the season, they’ve allowed only 104.9 points/100 with Nurkic on the floor, which would rank around eighth in the league extrapolated out to a full season. The Nets, especially Brook Lopez, will have some enticing Opponent Plus/Minus marks today, but don’t be fooled: These aren’t your Mason Plumlee-Blazers anymore.
And, as usual, as of Saturday morning, we have no Net projected to play 30 minutes:
You could probably talk yourself into Lopez, Trevor Booker, or perhaps Sean Kilpatrick, but not one of these guys has a floor or ceiling worth pursuing hard. There’s a reason they are 12-point Vegas dogs implied for 106 points against a team not even in the playoffs currently.
Point Guards
Kemba Walker is $700 FD less than Lillard, projected for lower ownership, and in a great spot facing the Nuggets, who have been easily the worst team in the league versus opposing point guards this year:
Kemba has exceeded salary-based expectations six of his last seven games, and six of his last seven have been on the road. He has been just about as good on the road as at home, although he’s seen a drastic drop in ownership on the road. He’s a nice GPP pivot away from the super chalk of Lillard today.
On that same note, Goran Dragic is $7,600 on FD, which is considerably less than Lillard and Kemba, and he also has an incredible matchup against the Cavs, who have been the second-worst team versus opposing PGs this year, allowing a +5.7 DK Plus/Minus. Dragic has been unremarkable lately . . .
. . . and he sucked against the Cavs earlier this year:
That said, given the Cavs’ recent PG defense . . .
. . . and Dragic’s lower ownership, isn’t he worth some shots in GPPs?
If you’re looking for a truly off-the-wall play in GPPs, consider Ricky Rubio against the Spurs, who rank first in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.7 points/100. Rubio is on the road, where he has negative splits:
However, he has played well on the recent road trip (the last game of which was in Utah), and he has success against the Spurs this season:
In his most recent game, which was played in San Antonio, Rubio put up 48.5 DK points. At negligible ownership (given the great options at PG in this slate), Rubio is worth pursuing in GPPs, especially at his low price tag of $6,100 on DK, where he has nine Pro Trends (accessible for Pro users in our Player Models) and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. (Also, Pro users should be sure to review Rubio’s ownership and that of other players via our DFS Ownership Dashboard once lineups lock.)
Shooting Guards
DeMar DeRozan remains affordable at $8,700 on DK, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He crushed value last night in Washington, putting up 56.8 DK points in 37.9 minutes of action on 10-of-17 shooting. Without backcourt mate Kyle Lowry on the floor this year (per our On/Off tool) . . .
. . . DeRozan has been the go-to man for the Raps, averaging 48.2 DK points and a +7.1 Plus/Minus in 36.3 minutes per game. His massive usage rate of 40.3 percent is an increase of 5.3 points on his usual already-high average. Most impressively, he’s remained efficient, as shown by his 60.0 true shooting mark. He’s viable in all contest formats against a Bucks squad that has dropped defensively of late, now ranking 22nd in efficiency and allowing 107.0 points/100.
Giannis Antetokounmpo seems to be in a bit of a slump:
He finished with 49.0 FD points in 31.5 minutes last night against the Clippers, but he’s still averaged a disappointing -1.18 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. It seems like Giannis should benefit from Jabari Parker‘s absence, but that hasn’t been the case:
All that said, he was efficient last night, shooting 10-of-13, and he’s had success this year against the Raptors:
Both Giannis and James Harden are contrarian pivot options away from DeRozan tonight, and I like the former’s matchup better than Harden’s versus the Grizzlies.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Gary Harris missed value last game, but he’s still posted an impressive 80 percent Consistency Rating and a +5.29 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
He continues to see solid minutes — he’s gone at least 33 in five of his last six contests — and he has a solid matchup against a Hornets team that has been the fifth-worst squad versus opposing SGs this season, allowing a +3.72 DK Plus/Minus:
The Nuggets are currently 5.5-point home favorites implied for 113 points — the third-highest mark in the slate.
Small Forwards
LeBron James has put up 63.6 and 58.6 FD points over his last two games, in which he’s played a whopping 39.2 and 40.0 minutes. He’s clearly gearing up for a playoff run and gets a Heat team today that he dominated earlier this season, posting a +8.35 DK Plus/Minus:
He’s very expensive at $10,900 DK and $11,100 FD, but he brings immense safety given his usage and likely 40-ish minutes of action.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Below him in salary sits two guys who might be better point-per-dollar values in Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. Kawhi is coming off two ridiculous games of 50-plus FD points, and he’s especially cheap still at only $9,000 FD.
He has the best matchup of the three high-priced studs against a Minnesota team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.6 points/100. He has dominated them twice already this year . . .
. . . and faces a defensively inept frontcourt:
Butler is $100 more than Kawhi on FD and in a tougher spot against the Clippers, but it’s hard to shun his consistency.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
(If you need to punt the position, look again at the Portland section above.)
Power Forwards
Nikola Jokic has posted back-to-back games of triple-doubles, and he’s accumulated them despite playing only 29.7 and 32.7 minutes:
His price has come down from $11,000 right before the All-Star break to $9,500 DK and $9,900 FD. He faces a Hornets team that should be a little improved defensively with big man Cody Zeller back, but he’s playing only 20-ish minutes and is working his way back from a quad injury:
With Frank Kaminsky out today with a sprained left shoulder, the Hornets could elect to play Zeller a full complement of minutes, or they could play end-of-the-rotation bigs in Christian Wood and Johnny O’Bryant. If the latter happens, Jokic could have a huge game. Again, the Nuggets are currently implied for 113 points — the third-highest mark of the slate.
I guess Bobby Portis is a thing now?
He put up 33.6 FD points in 31.3 minutes on Thursday against a tough Warriors defense, and he’s actually been pretty solid in the four games since Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson were traded to the Thunder:
He’s increased his usage rate by 1.5 percentage points and has posted a +5.3 DK Plus/Minus differential in the four games since the trade deadline. At only $4,400 on FD, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating, he’s worth a shot today.
Serge Ibaka has been up and down lately, but his minutes have remained consistent:
He has a really nice matchup tonight against a Milwaukee team that has slipped defensively of late and now ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.0 points/100. Rookie Thon Maker certainly has upside as an elite rim protector, but he’s still a few years away from that:
Ibaka is a nice value on both sites at $6,600 DK and $6,900 FD, and he has a high +2.71 FD Plus/Minus against the reeling Bucks.
Centers
Nurkic will likely be chalky, but if you want to pay up to be contrarian taking Karl-Anthony Towns against the Spurs, who rank first in defensive efficiency on the year, would certainly qualify as contrarian.
KAT has played well against the Spurs twice this year . . .
. . . and he put up 49.0 DK points on the road against them in their latest meeting despite having notable home/away splits. Earlier I mentioned Rubio, who has correlated with Towns this year:
If you’re going to take a shot on Rubio as a contrarian play at PG, throw KAT in a lineup with him.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Marc Gasol was terrible last night against the Mavericks, scoring only 22.2 FD points in 36.2 minutes thanks to 6-of-18 shooting and getting dominated by new Mavs center Nerlens Noel. Against the team that ranks last in rebound rate on the year, Gasol was able to grab only six boards. That said, Gasol tonight gets a Rockets team that has been poor against opposing centers this season . . .
. . . and especially awful over the last month:
Gasol is a better value at $7,900 on DK, where he has 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
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