Saturday brings a four-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas: 215.5 over/under, Wizards -3.5
Both teams played last night, which means rest is a possibility. The Wizards have rarely rested all season, and the Cavaliers have primarily rested on the road. Additionally, the Wizards will have two full days off after tonight’s game while the Cavs will face the Spurs on Monday.
John Wall played through a migraine headache last night, and none of the Wizards starters played more than 25 minutes in the 21-point victory — further alleviating the talk of rest. Wall possesses one particularly concerning trend that was bucked in three of the past five instances (per our Trends tool):
Wall’s salary has dropped to $9,500 on FanDuel for the first time since early December, and point guards facing the Cavaliers have been a no-brainer option this season, especially since the start of 2017:
However, Wall hasn’t been dynamic against the Cavs in his career, including the most recent game, in which the Wizards scored 135 points in an overtime loss:
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Bradley Beal is the second-most expensive shooting guard on the slate. The last time he faced the Cavs, he scored 41 actual points in 45 minutes on 28 shots. Since the All-Star break, he’s led all Wizards starters with a +3.95 DraftKings Plus/Minus, and Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat have combined to average a -3.62 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 30.6 percent Consistency. Now that the Wizards own a deeper bench, playing time for Porter, Morris, and Gortat has shrunk over the past 17 games, and Gortat’s DraftKings salary has dropped to a season-low $4,300. Beal is priced to a point where he makes more sense as a guaranteed prize pool leverage option, and in his last six games he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations five times.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
If coach decides to give me a game off (Saturday), it’s not because I’m resting. It’s because I’m banged up.
– LeBron James
The Cavs won last night and James played 40 minutes. We won’t get an official status update until coach Tyronn Lue speaks to the media tonight, and James is dealing with a scratched right cornea. In the three games James has missed since the All-Star break, the Cavaliers’ overall production has been muted with the exception of one performance by Kyrie Irving: 56 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. Should Irving play without James tonight, he’ll instantly become a genuine option in all formats. He’s mainly been a cash game option recently, producing between 37 and 48 DraftKings points in seven of the past nine games.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
James has recorded at least 45.75 DraftKings points in eight straight games against the Wizards:
He’ll be a solid bet at least to match salary-based expectations should he play. He’s contributed 91 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month, leading all projected starting small forwards.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Here’s an excerpt from ESPN’s Dave McMenamin:
Kevin Love has been cleared to participate in back-to-backs as he continues his progression from his recovery from arthroscopic knee surgery, per the Cavs. He will play Friday against Charlotte. This does not guarantee he will play Saturday against Washington, however. It all depends on how he gets through the Charlotte game. He remains on a 25-30 minute limitation.
Love had his shoulder yanked quite hard during Friday’s win, and he played 29 minutes. Power forwards facing the Wizards this season have been a solid investment (image below), but over the past four games Love has exceeded salary-based expectations just once on FanDuel.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Coach Lue condensed his rotation last night in preparation for the postseason. Derrick Williams and Channing Frye received a DNP-CD. Both would likely figure into the rotation if James and Love are ruled out. Frye’s per-minute production barely changes whether James is on the court or off (per our NBA On/Off tool). Williams, on the other hand, has recorded 0.74 DraftKings points per minute when James plays as opposed to a team-worst 0.56 DraftKings points per minute since the All-Star break with James on the bench.
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks
Vegas: 195.5 over/under, Mavericks -1
When these teams played on March 13, the Raptors won 100-78. Both Nerlens Noel and DeMarre Carroll were unavailable.
Lately, the Raptors have been DeMar DeRozan and the misfits. One night Jakob Poeltl is outplaying Jonas Valanciunas in minutes, and the next night Fred VanVleet is getting crunch time minutes alongside P.J. Tucker. Coach Dwane Casey is certainly going rotation by committee, and that makes it difficult to rely on anyone aside from DeRozan, who has scored at least 40 points in consecutive games and recorded a 35.8 percent usage rate over the past four games.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Cory Joseph was limited to 10.75 points and 14.0 DraftKings points in two games recently against the Heat. After the first game, he recorded 16.25 DraftKings points against the Mavs. The Raptors will once again face the Mavs after facing the Heat the game before for the second time this month. Joseph costs $4,800 on both sites, but his recent track record requires him to play close to 30 minutes in order to pay off his salary.
Seth Curry will remain the starting point guard for the foreseeable future, per coach Rick Carlisle. That means Nerlens Noel will likely start at center with Yogi Ferrell transitioning to a reserve role.
Curry is a nominal point guard with SG designation on DraftKings and FanDuel. He broke out of his slump in the last game, and once J.J. Barea was ejected, Curry became the primary facilitator. As documented in Thursday’s breakdown, the Mavs have begun to falter toward the end of the season. Nonetheless, Curry profiles as a decent SG2 at his salary and new role within the offense. Rather than spotting up, he’s now creating for others and himself. With the ball in his hands more, he’ll have more opportunity to produce.
Dirk Nowitzki benefitted greatly in the previous game against the Raptors by starting at center and being loosely defended by the Raptors’ Valanciunas. Now that he’s reverting to power forward, he’ll likely see plenty of Serge Ibaka (per our Matchups tool).
Nowitzki has been plenty consistent on FanDuel against the Raptors, and his salary-implied point total is well below his average production:
Noel pulled down 18 rebounds on Thursday, and in the two starts he’s made with the Mavs this season he’s averaged 40.88 DraftKings points in 34.01 minutes per start. His salary-implied point total on both platforms resides around 23.0 DFS points, almost half his average production as a starter this season. At $5,000 on DraftKings, he may be the first choice at center due to the new role and abundance of minutes he’ll likely receive.
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs
Vegas: 205 over/under, Spurs -15
Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose have been listed in the Knicks’ game notes as questionable. Lance Thomas has been ruled out. All three missed the previous game, a 15-point loss.
Anthony’s salary has cratered to $6,600 on DraftKings — his lowest price point in our database. Allow me to recycle this graphic from Thursday’s breakdown since Anthony didn’t play that night:
Anthony held his own against Kawhi Leonard in the first meeting this season, a four-point Knicks victory. But now that Anthony is deferring quite frequently in the triangle offense and coach Jeff Hornacek wants to start limiting Anthony’s minutes, his utility in cash games has become razor thin. He’s attempted less than 15 shots in five of the past eight games.
Anthony: DFS Scouting Report
Now that Thomas has been ruled out, Willy Hernangomez will likely remain in the starting lineup, and if Anthony and Rose are both unavailable to play Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Ron Baker could see extended run as starters. Last game the Knicks used primarily an eight-man rotation with Courtney Lee receiving a team-high 40.4 minutes. All but two Knicks exceeded salary-based expectations, and Chasson Randle outperformed Baker in fewer minutes in the second unit.
Kristaps Porzingis leads all power forwards on the slate with 100 percent Consistency over the past month, and he’s averaged an +8.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past eight games. In 11 March games, Porzingis leads the Knicks with a 25.9 percent usage rate, and Thomas has been the only other Knick during that time to average a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus.
As good as Porzingis has been against the Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge has been that bad against the Knicks as a Spur.
When the Spurs are favored by at least 10 points at home this season, the reserves and guards have provided the best overall FanDuel Plus/Minus values:
Given the situation, Leonard might be a fade candidate. As a double-digit favorite at home, he’s had middling Consistency and an absurd 33.3 percent ownership. Pro subscribers can review the ownership of Leonard and others in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineup lock.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Tony Parker has performed better at home this season, and he’s the cheapest projected starting point guard.
The Spurs are a team that could rest their older players, and with Dejounte Murray out for a few more weeks Patty Mills could quickly become the value play on the slate. As of now, Parker and Manu Ginobili are expected to play.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas: 212.5 over/under, Blazers -6.5
These teams will play three times over the next 13 days.
Over the last two seasons, Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged a +9.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus when the Wolves have played the second night of a back-to-back set on the road. He’s been especially good in that situation this season:
He provides a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and among projected starting centers he ranks second in Opponent Plus/Minus. He’ll likely be guarded by the Blazers’ power forward Noah Vonleh, and power forwards facing the Blazers this season have produced a +4.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 60.4 percent.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Among players with at least 40 road games played over the past two seasons, Gorgui Dieng leads everyone with a +4.66 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He hit a rough patch lately when Nemanja Bjelica was getting minutes over him, but now that Bjelica is out for the season Dieng has played at least 31 minutes in five of the past six games:
With all the uncertainty floating around today, this game likely provides the most stability. Andrew Wiggins has played at least 36 minutes in 10 straight games and Ricky Rubio continues to produce:
Rubio, Wiggins, Dieng, and Towns all have Bargain Ratings of at least 75 percent on FanDuel. All four are positively correlated, and Dieng may have the most risk associated with him despite the rock-solid road trend. It’s unclear if Tom Thibodeau will decide to bench Dieng in favor of Shabazz Muhammad or Omri Casspi, but the other three starters are locked into their minutes.
The Blazers remain a two-man team: Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is one of two projected starting point guards with 100 percent Consistency over the past month on DraftKings and FanDuel — the other being Rubio. Nurkic’s production hasn’t wavered wildly over the past 10 games relative to his price, which has dropped $900 since Thursday’s win. If you’re looking for safety in cash games, Lillard and Nurkic are a solid tandem in a game that has the second-highest Vegas total and two teams not eliminated from postseason contention.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
C.J. McCollum deserves attention despite his uneven production of late:
He exploded for 43 actual points in the first game against the Timberwolves this season, and his salary has dropped to $6,900 on FanDuel for the first time since January.
News Updates
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