Saturday brings a six-game main slate at 7pm ET. Because it’s a small slate, let’s jump straight into positions.
Point Guards
John Wall continues to be one of the safest players to roster: Over his last seven games, he’s dipped below 49.0 DraftKings points just once.
He’s on the second leg of a road back-to-back, which isn’t ideal (per our Trends tool) . . .
. . . but he’s only $9,300 today on DraftKings, which means he requires only 44.15 points to hit value. As you can see by the “Avg Actual Pts” above, he’s been way above that in road B2Bs despite the mediocre Plus/Minus. Further, he gets a Charlotte team that has been bottom-10 against opposing PGs this season:
Wall: DFS Scouting Reports
Cleveland has been the second-worst team on the season versus opposing PGs:
Chris Paul has been very poor over his last 10 games, averaging a -3.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a poor 30 percent Consistency Rating. That said, he’s been dragged down by a brutal five-games-in-seven-nights stretch, and he’s getting 30-plus minutes again. He’s now put up 42-plus FanDuel points in three of his last four games, and he’s been solid this year against good teams:
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
It’s hard to find a value PG in this slate, but Jamal Murray is in a good spot because of this game’s massive Vegas total. He’s actually been very steady of late, averaging a +6.64 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
His minutes have been all over the place given the depth of the Nuggets . . .
. . . but he should be able to do some damage against Houston’s second unit: Lou Williams isn’t the defender that starter Patrick Beverley is. But really this just comes down to that massive total and the fact that Murray is only $4,400 on FanDuel, where he has a 95 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends (available to Pro subscribers via our Player Models). Players with high FanDuel Bargain Ratings have been successful this year:
Shooting Guards
James Harden and the Rockets are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s also playing against the Denver Nuggets, who rank eighth in pace, averaging 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. Playing a back-to-back in Denver in high altitude seems like a horrible situation, but it’s actually been the third-best place to play a road B2B this year:
That said, despite Harden’s excellent game last night — he put up 73.3 FanDuel points in 39.6 minutes thanks to 41 real points, 14 rebounds, and 11 assists — he has still experienced a large decrease in usage with Lou Williams on the team. Per the NBA On/Off tool, Harden has seen his usage rate decrease by 5.7 percentage points.
Even still, Harden leads all SGs with 12 FanDuel Pro Trends and a massive +4.89 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Klay Thompson continues to see increased usage without Kevin Durant in the lineup.
However, he’s struggled to turn that into production: Despite increasing his usage rate by 3.1 percentage points sans Durant, he’s averaged a poor -0.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus in those games. That said, he’s trending up right now . . .
. . . and the Warriors are currently 11-point favorites over the Bucks. When he’s been a double-digit favorite this season, he’s averaged a +5.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus on impressive 76.7 percent Consistency.
Thompson: DFS Scouting Reports
Small Forwards
Rodney Hood has been ruled out today with a sore right knee, which means that Joe Ingles should move into the starting lineup (per our Matchups tool):
In 20 games this season sans Hood, Jingles has averaged 22.91 DraftKings points and a +5.4 Plus/Minus in 30.5 minutes per game. On top of Hood’s injury, the Jazz will be without Derrick Favors and Shelvin Mack. In the only game without those three this year, Jingles played 35.9 minutes: He finished with 23 DraftKings points and a +5.8 Plus/Minus. That may seem like underwhelming production, but at $4,400 DraftKings and $4,100 FanDuel he requires just 19.65 and 15.86 points to meet expectations. At 30-35 minutes, he brings a lot of safety at a low price point.
If you want to pay up at the position, you’ll have to pick which stud in a bad matchup you want: LeBron James vs. the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard vs. the Grizzlies, Jimmy Butler vs. the Jazz, or Gordon Hayward vs. the Bulls. The Grizzlies have been poor defensively over the last month, and it’s likely that Kawhi will be a popular option after going for 61.8 FanDuel points in his last game. (Pro subscribers will be able to review the ownership of Leonard and other players via our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.)
LeBron will also likely be popular: He’s been excellent lately, averaging a +7.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
The matchup against Luc Mbah a Moute isn’t ideal . . .
. . . but he’s shown he can still meet value even in tough matchups:
And Butler could be an interesting contrarian pick in guaranteed prize pools against a Jazz team that ranks dead last in pace this year, averaging just 93.7 possessions/48, and third in defensive efficiency, allowing only 102.0 points/100. He performed well against them in the first meeting, going for 41.9 FanDuel points and a +6.72 Plus/Minus:
Further, he continues to have absolutely studly splits without fellow wing Dwyane Wade, averaging 48.61 FanDuel points and a ridiculous +11.2 Plus/Minus in 38.4 minutes sans Wade.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
James: DFS Scouting Report
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Nikola Jokic continues to see low minutes — he hasn’t gone over 32 minutes in seven games — but because of his high efficiency (1.3 FanDuel points per minute), he’s still put up impressive games.
This game predictably has the slate’s highest Vegas total at 238.5 points, and (likely because of the back-to-back) the Nuggets are only 2.5-point dogs.
Both teams are top-eight in pace, and Jokic has done well in similar situations before:
If you want to stack a game, this is the one: The total is a full 20 points higher than that of any other game.
Jokic’s fellow Denver PF Juancho Hernangomez should be popular as well: He’s projected to start at the SF spot, and when he’s been projected to get run, he’s responded in a big way this season:
In the six games this year in which he’s been projected for 15-plus FanDuel points, he’s averaged a +9.90 on 83.3 percent Consistency. He is averaging 0.77 FanDuel points per minute on the season, and we’re currently projecting him to play 25-plus minutes. At his low $4,000 salary, he needs just 15.42 points to hit value. He does likely have a limited ceiling because Jokic and Plumlee could play more together, but Hernangomez profiles as a nice cash-game play.
Pivoting away from Jokic is very scary, and the other options (Blake Griffin and Draymond Green) aren’t in exciting spots.
Griffin: DFS Scouting Report
Green: DFS Scouting Report
However, there is this trend:
Griffin is cheap on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Centers
Mason Plumlee struggled to acclimate to the Nuggets in his first few games, but he’s come around lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and averaging a +2.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings.
We’re projecting him to start alongside Jokic, and his salary is too low for his current production and this juicy game: He’s only $6,000 on FanDuel, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating and a position-high 11 Pro Trends.
Clint Capela is an interesting player to analyze. He’s been a superb DFS asset of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.65 Plus/Minus during that time.
Further, it’s hard to not be excited about a guy facing a Denver team that ranks eighth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, especially when the Rockets are implied for a whopping 120.5 points.
That said, the Nuggets could play Jokic and Plumlee a lot together, and they already rank first in the league in rebound rate, grabbing 53.6 percent of the available boards. The pace of this game still makes Capela intriguing, but there is underappreciated downside here, too.
Rudy Gobert is an intriguing pivot on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Again, in the game without Hood, Favors, and Mack . . .
. . . Gobert went for 50.3 FanDuel points and a silly +18.6 Plus/Minus in 36.8 minutes. Chicago ranks third in rebound rate on the year, grabbing 51.9 percent of the available boards, but that number is likely unrepresentative, as Taj Gibson is now in Oklahoma City. Gobert has perhaps the most upside in the entire slate, and he could go underowned — especially on FanDuel, where only one center can be rostered — because of the massive total of the Denver-Houston game.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
