Saturday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
This is no longer ‘Game of the Day’ from a real-life basketball perspective since the Warriors head coach announced he will rest Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala, but it will still dominate the DFS world. Let’s get this one out of the way.
While we don’t have any Vegas information as of writing, we can assume that it will be a large spread in favor of the Spurs, who were likely going to be favored anyway. While there’s a big blowout risk for the Spurs, the Warriors who will now get 30-plus minutes of action are so cheap. Everyone in this game is worthy of a fade in guaranteed prize pools, but there’s also immense value with near-minimum price tags for cash games.
As of Saturday morning, here’s how we’re projecting the Warriors’ starters (via our Matchups tool):
We can run a couple On/Off queries to get a sense of how production will be distributed. With the starters off the floor, here’s how the rest of the Warriors have done on a per-36 minute basis.
In this situation, Ian Clark and David West have dominated usage. Clark especially should see solid minutes and is cheap at $3,000 DK and $3,500 FD. This is largely in line with last season’s data, so confidence in Clark is probably warranted.
Note, however, how slow the Warriors are without their starters. Overall this season, the Warriors rank second in the league in pace, averaging 102.7 possessions per 48 minutes. However, with Clark, or even the other guards like Patrick McCaw and Shaun Livingston, the Warriors have played at a pace below 96 possessions/48. Livingston especially plays slowly: Without the starters and with Livingston, the Warriors have averaged only 93.82 possessions/48 this year, which would be tied for last in the league with the Utah Jazz. The Warriors backups are intriguing as DFS options because of their low salaries and increased roles, not because this is an enticing DFS game.
And that fact makes me lean more toward the guards here. That doesn’t mean guys like West, Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, James Michael McAdoo, Kevon Looney, or Matt Barnes aren’t viable in GPPs. Given the uncertainty of this game and the Warriors rotation, literally everyone on the roster is viable in GPPs, especially since they’re cheap. This is a situation we haven’t seen before, so I encourage you to take your own stance. Overall, I would consider the guards more in cash games and the bigs and wings more in tournaments.
The Spurs have to deal with the huge spread, but, unlike the Warriors, they don’t benefit from a divergence in salary and role. LaMarcus Aldridge was going to play 30-plus minutes tonight — but now he’s out. Kawhi Leonard (concussion) is also out. In six games without Kawhi this year, the additional minutes and production have been distributed across several players.
Kyle Anderson has gotten a nice boost, but he’s still working his way back from a sprained right knee and Jonathan Simmons could get the start instead. Manu Ginobili should be back after resting with Kawhi and Aldridge this past Thursday, and he has seen a 7.7 percentage point usage rate increase in five games sans Kawhi this year.
There were will likely be incredible value in this game, and some guys will put up huge Plus/Minus performance. However, there’s also a lot of uncertainty. Make sure you account for that in your contests. In cash games, it is probably wise to avoid a lot of the Spurs and to take minimal chances on the Warriors given the uncertainty of their rotation (and to stick with the guards). In tournaments, leverage the uncertainty and take some risks. Pro subscribers should consult our Player Models throughout the day as we update projections.
Point Guards
Given the minimum-priced PG options on the Warriors, it could be a contrarian move to pay up for the most expensive PG in tournaments, John Wall. He has a nice matchup against a Portland team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. That number has improved a bit since they acquired now starting center Jusuf Nurkic, but Wall certainly still has a one-on-one matchup he can win against Damian Lillard, who ranks 73rd among all PGs in the NBA with a -1.92 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Wall has put up 46-plus FD points in each of his last three games and has averaged a nice +4.51 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
If you want to target a bad defender but don’t want to pay Wall’s position-high price tag, look at Mike Conley, who will face off against Dennis Schroder.
Despite having the fourth ranked defense in the league this season, allowing just 103.7 points/100, Atlanta has been the third-worst team against opposing PGs. Per our Trends tool, the Hawks have allowed a +4.81 DK Plus/Minus on 68.6 percent Consistency:
Conley has averaged a +5.88 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games on FD, where his low $7,700 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Ricky Rubio remains incredibly underpriced on both sites at $6,800 DK and $7,100 FD. He is only $100 more expensive on DK than he was 10 games ago, and he’s been productive during that time frame:
No big deal — just a massive +9.48 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. Rubio doesn’t have the easiest matchup against a Bucks team that has held PGs to 1.94 points below salary-based expectations this year, but Rubio hasn’t had an issue with tough matchups lately (on or off the road):
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal dropped 58 FD points last night in 42.7 minutes of action. He’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 outings and averaging an +8.65 Plus/Minus during that time.
Beal is playing huge minutes lately and is perhaps the safest SG in the slate. He has mostly negligible home/away splits . . .
. . . and he torched the Blazers in their first meeting this year, putting up 39.9 FD points and an +11.75 Plus/Minus.
Seth Curry has been a model of consistency lately:
That’s a lot of green. His still-low $6,200 price tag on FD requires him to score just 25.08 points to hit value, and he’s been above that in each of his last eight games. He hasn’t dipped below 30 minutes since exactly a month ago, and today he gets a Phoenix team that ranks third in pace, averaging 102.4 possessions/48, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points/100.
If you need a direct pivot away from the chalkiness of the min-priced Warriors, Jeremy Lamb is only $3,300 DK and put up 25.75 DK points in 28.05 minutes of action last night against the Magic. That game was a blowout, but Lamb has still received about 25 minutes of playing time over the last four games. The Hornets have been playing much better now that Cody Zeller is healthy again, and they are currently 2.5-point favorites over the visiting Pelicans. Lamb is a thin GPP-only dart throw, but he does have upside if he can outscore the risky Warriors and Spurs (like Ginobili at the same price range).
Small Forwards
In yesterday’s breakdown, I created a trend for Harrison Barnes in large pace-up games this season. He met salary-based expectations last night against the fast-paced Nets, and now he gets a Suns team that ranks third in pace. Phoenix plays 8.5 possessions/48 faster than Dallas, and that has been a positive situation for Barnes this season:
He remains very cheap on FD, where his $6,000 price tag comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
There’s a gap in SF pricing today: LeBron James at $11,600 FD is $4,800 more than the next SF in Khris Middleton. That said, it’s hard to deny that LeBron isn’t worth it, considering he’s done this over his past four games:
The Magic continue to struggle defensively: They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.4 points/100. LeBron is such a pain to guard because he requires a wing or stretch power forward to be on him because of his massive size, yet those guys spend 99 percent of their time throughout the season guarding pick-and-roll screeners, not ball-handlers. Aaron Gordon will certainly have his hands full tonight against a red-hot King.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Maurice Harkless has been awesome of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last 10 games and averaging a robust +7.74 FD Plus/Minus during that time:
As you can see by the salary line above, he did receive a bump in price a couple weeks ago, but his salary has since plateaued. He remains oddly cheap on FD, where his $4,800 price tag comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. As I’ve been harping on a lot lately, guys with 90-plus Bargain Ratings on FD have been very valuable this season:
The Wizards aren’t slouches defensively — they rank 12th in the league, allowing 105.6 points/100 — but Harkless remains a cash-game option at that silly salary.
Power Forwards
Harkless’ teammate, Al-Farouq Aminu, is in the same boat: At just $5,200, he remains incredibly cheap on FD, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He hasn’t had perfect Consistency over the past 10 games . . .
. . . but he’s been pretty darn close, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 and averaging a +3.46 Plus/Minus over that time. He put up a surprising dud on Thursday, scoring just 12.0 FD points in 37.8 minutes of action, but that second data point is more important: The Blazers’ wings are playing huge minutes and remain incredibly cheap. They are currently 3.5-point home favorites implied for 113.5 points — the second-highest mark in the slate.
Nikola Jokic hasn’t played big minutes lately, but it also hasn’t really mattered:
He has double-doubled in each of his last four games, and tonight he gets a nice matchup against a Kings team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.7 points/100. They have held players to low DFS production, but that is almost entirely because of their slow pace: They rank 26th in pace, averaging 96.8 possessions/48. However, that hasn’t really been a big deal for Jokic this season:
He’s a better value on FD, where his $10,100 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Paul Millsap hasn’t put up huge games, but he’s been remarkably consistent lately, scoring between 37.0 and 43.5 DK points in each of his last six games.
He has an absolutely brutal matchup against the Grizzlies, who rank 28th in pace, averaging 95.5 possessions/48, and sixth in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.1 points/100. However, that is certainly priced in on DK, where he’s just $6,900 with a position-high 14 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Further, Millsap has shown he can produce in these situations:
Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns did struggle last night against the Warriors, scoring only 37.8 FD points in 38.05 minutes, but tonight’s matchup gets much easier.
Milwaukee has continued to struggle defensively: The Bucks rank 19th in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.4 points/100. Thon Maker has a lot of defensive potential, but that has yet to be realized in his young career:
Since the beginning of 2017, KAT has been a DFS monster. He is a nice GPP pivot at potentially low(er) ownership given the cheap GS centers.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Cody Zeller has struggled to hit value over his last two games, but look at his minutes lately:
The Hornets remain thin with Frank Kaminsky and Miles Plumlee out, which means that Zeller will likely have to continue to play large minutes. He hasn’t played poorly, and it’s likely that his usage rate will come back up a bit. He has a tough matchup against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, but that further shows how much he’ll likely need to play given the Hornets’ depth. He’s still very cheap at $5,100 on FD, where he has an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Although Alan Williams has a poor -1.12 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD against the Mavericks, he has hidden upside. Nerlens Noel missed last night’s game with a sore left knee, and if he’s out the Mavericks will likely continue to struggle rebounding the ball: They rank dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.7 percent of the available boards. Williams has grabbed double-digit rebounds in five straight games . . .
. . . and he’ll be a solid bet to do so again if Noel is ruled out. Williams has averaged a ridiculous +8.31 Plus/Minus on FD over his last 10 games . . .
. . . and he remains especially cheap on FD, where his $5,600 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
