Saturday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns
This game has the second-highest Vegas total of the day at 219 points (behind the Kings-Warriors’ total of 224), but it has a one-point spread and should have a few enticing plays. Both teams are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo last night continued a disappointing trend of missing value lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in only four of his last 10 outings, averaging a poor -2.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time. The issue is his price relative to the rest of the SG field: At $10,500 FD, he’s $3,300 more expensive than any other option, which means he could put up the highest score of the night and still disappoint. That said, there’s reason to believe he’ll bounce back: He’s facing a Suns team that ranks fourth in pace, averaging 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Despite the mini-slump, he still owns the position’s highest ceiling and is a worthy roster in guaranteed prize pools.
Jabari Parker certainly did not disappoint last night, scoring 53.75 DraftKings points in 34.9 minutes thanks to 27 real points and 11 rebounds. That game against Denver was not difficult — the Nuggets are tied for last in defense efficiency — but the Suns aren’t much better, and he gets an elite one-on-one matchup against rookie Marquese Chriss, who, well, just take a look . . .
It is fairly safe to say that the young Sun is not good at defending basketball players yet.
While the other Bucks aren’t safe enough to roster in cash games, Matthew Dellavedova and John Henson both exceeded 30 minutes last night and put up solid DK Plus/Minus games of +9.94 and +18.77. That said, be careful chasing points: Henson had an unsustainable four-block night, and Dellavedova was a PG versus Nuggets, a.k.a. the Coors Field situation of NBA DFS (per our Trends tool).
After an early-season sophomore slump, Devin Booker has really come on since the New Year.
He was billed as a great shooter coming out of college, and while his fantasy production hasn’t been the result of high shooting percentages he has been productive.
Tony Snell is a fine defender at the SG spot, but Booker’s value is tied to the fact that he’s only $6,600 DK and $6,900 FD and taking about 20 field-goal attempts per contest.
Tyson Chandler has come back down to earth lately . . .
. . . but he has upside today against a Bucks team that is bottom-10 in rebound rate, grabbing only 49.6 percent of the available boards.
If you’re looking for a fringe GPP play, look at T.J. Warren, who put up 29.5 FD points in 36.2 minutes last night and has an elite +4.11 Opponent Plus/Minus today. The Bucks have remained consistent with putting Parker on SFs to keep Giannis near the basket, and Parker is certainly the weakest of the Bucks’ defenders: He ranks 92 out of 94 eligible PFs with a -1.67 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Finally, let’s quickly touch on Eric Bledsoe, who has shown quite a bit of volatility lately, especially with regards to his usage rate.
He’s in play only on DK, where his $8,500 salary comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating and only five to eight percent projected ownership, but this is still a tough matchup against a Bucks team that has limited opposing PGs to a -1.15 Plus/Minus this year.
Point Guards
John Wall played these very Pelicans just six days ago and finished with 53.8 DK points in 37.1 minutes thanks to 18 real points and a ridiculous 19 assists. It was something of a PG duel, as Jrue Holiday put up 52.0 DK points in 38.9 minutes. Stacking them again today isn’t an awful idea. The Pelicans have struggled against PGs all year, as evidenced by Wall’s +2.54 DK Plus/Minus, and the All-Star PG has absolutely feasted as a favorite this season:
The Wizards are currently 7.5-point favorites implied for 112.25 points — the second-highest mark of the slate.
And Jrue? He’s done this over his last six games . . .
. . . and somehow dropped in salary to $7,400 on DK, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
The Nuggets are playing today, so let’s look at the opposing PG: Tony Parker. The 34-year-old veteran is certainly not a sexy DFS play at this point of his career, but just about all boats are lifted by the rising tide that is Denver’s PG defense.
At only $4,000 DK, Parker needs just 17.65 points to hit value. Are you willing to bet he doesn’t get 17.65 fantasy points versus the Nuggets?
Per our NBA News feed regarding Derrick Rose:
Brandon Jennings has been priced up to $6,000 DK, but his 30.6 average DK points without Rose this year would warrant a salary of around $6,500. That’s not incredible value given his price just a week ago, but he does get a matchup against a Cleveland team that has been the absolute worst in the league over the last month versus opposing PGs — yes, even worse than the Nuggets.
Shooting Guards
Booker will likely be popular, which makes Bradley Beal an intriguing pivot at just $100 more on FD. Beal has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games, averaging a +2.17 Plus/Minus over that time. Further, he gets a nice matchup against a Pelicans team that has improved on defense of late (ranking eighth in defensive efficiency and allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions) but has struggled against SGs, as evidenced by Beal’s +1.64 Opponent Plus/Minus. Rookie Buddy Hield has impressed as a shooter this year, but he still has a ways to go as a defender:
While Kentavious Caldwell-Pope‘s recent production has certainly been streaky . . .
. . . his minutes have stayed incredibly stable. Fellow Labber Justin Phan mentioned on one of our recent NBA podcasts that KCP is largely dependent on pace-up games for value. Justin’s correct:
It’s always scary to use a guy with a 12.4 percent usage rate, but Danny Green has shown high Consistency lately at a cheap price point:
Green admittedly sucked last season shooting the ball. However, it was fairly obvious looking at his career values that he was bound for some positive regression this season.
He is back up to 40.5 percent from the 3-point line after dipping to an uncharacteristic 33.2 percent last season. Did I mention that Denver ranks dead last in defense this year, giving up an awful 110.3 points per 100 possessions?
Small Forwards
LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kawhi Leonard are the three highest-priced options at $10,500, $10,100, and $9,300 DK, and they all have elite matchups against the Knicks, Kings, and Nuggets.
LeBron has crushed value lately:
That said, Kevin Love expects to play today after dealing with back spasms over the last week. LeBron is a solid play in nearly every slate, especially against a Knicks team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, but be aware that LeBron’s totals have been slightly inflated by Love’s absence.
Durant has taken a slight step back in value lately during Stephen Curry‘s surge — he’s averaged ‘only’ a +2.98 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 games — which means that looking at Kawhi in tournaments could be a profitable move. Kawhi has been excellent of late, averaging a +7.25 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings and torching these Nuggets for 52.75 DK points just two weeks ago on 34 real points. He’s projected for lower ownership than the other two studs at just nine to 12 percent on DK.
I’m curious as to what people will do with Matt Barnes again today. He was a fairly chalky option last night and didn’t disappoint, putting up 25.0 FD points in 38.9 minutes against the Suns. He remains only $4,000 today, which means he needs only 15.42 points to hit value. All of that is nice — especially the massive 38.9 minutes last night — but he’s on a back-to-back and tonight’s game is against the Warriors, who are tied with the Spurs for the league’s best defense, allowing only 101.4 points per 100 possessions. If you can stomach that matchup, power to you.
Also, be sure to monitor the Atlanta situation: Thabo Sefolosha is questionable for today’s game, and in his absence on Thursday Tim Hardaway Jr. got the start and put up 47.5 DK points. Thabo’s absence has been quite valuable for a lot of Hawks:
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis has actually stayed healthy over his last four games, and he’s subsequently put up amazing DFS scores:
Brow predictably leads all PFs (by a lot) with an average of 1.41 FD points per minute, and he has an average matchup against a Washington team that has allowed a +1.90 FD Plus/Minus to opposing PFs this season. He’s moved over to manning the center spot for New Orleans, and that places him against Marcin Gortat, who has certainly taken a step back as a defender this season.
Kevin Love is one of the more intriguing players in this slate. He’s projected to return to the Cavs’ lineup today, but it’s concerning that he continues to be plagued by back spasms. It’s caused him to be quite volatile as a DFS asset of late:
However, it’s difficult to ignore his large +2.68 Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Knicks, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions.
Serge Ibaka has crushed value over the last three games:
He’s scored at least 36 FD points over that time and, more importantly, has played at least 34 minutes and has increased his rebounding totals. He has a tough matchup against a Hawks team that ranks fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing 103.1 points per 100 possessions, but there’s sneaky upside, as the Hawks are surprisingly only 17th in rebound rate despite starting big-bodied Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard in the frontcourt. Ibaka remains reasonable at $6,200 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Centers
Joel Embiid has been ruled out Saturday versus the Heat with a left knee contusion that has sidelined him for seven of the last eight games. That means Jahlil Okafor should be a nice value play today: He’s averaged 4.2 more DK points and a +4.4 Plus/Minus differential in 14 games this season sans Embiid.
Further, he faces a Miami team that is officially the league’s worst squad versus opposing centers.
Also, don’t forget about Ersan Ilyasova, who has averaged a ridiculous 40.3 DK points and a +16.4 Plus/Minus in four games this season without Embiid and Robert Covington, who is questionable with a right hand contusion.
DeMarcus Cousins is the highest-priced center today at $11,100 FD, and his salary is understandable:
That said, he’s against a Golden State team that ranks first in defensive efficiency, allowing only 101.4 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have been a brutal matchup for opposing centers this year . . .
. . . and Boogie has struggled historically against inferior Warriors defenses:
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Andre Drummond remains too cheap on DK, where his $7,600 salary comes with 12 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He has shown a massive ceiling lately — he put up a 28-22 line on the Celtics just three games ago — and gets a nice matchup today against an Indiana team that has allowed a +4.81 DK Plus/Minus to opposing centers this year. A lot of that is due to their poor rebounding: They rank 26th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.0 percent of the available boards. Drummond is projected for low five to eight percent ownership on DK and certainly has the potential to be the C1 on the slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
