Saturday brings a seven-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
The game with the highest Vegas total today is actually the Nets-Warriors game at 236, but it also has a 22-point spread. As expected, the Warriors have been the only team to be in this rare situation over the past three years, and even though they’ve done well over two games there’s certainly a massive blowout risk.
Instead, of focusing on this game, let’s pivot to Wolves-Rockets, which currently has a high spread of 11.5 but has a better chance of staying close.
Starting with the Wolves, we’ve often discussed their extreme splits at home (via our Trends tool) . . .
. . . versus the road, where they are today:
Karl-Anthony Towns had an excellent 26-18 game just last night against the slow-paced Dallas Mavericks, and now he gets a fast-paced Rockets team that has struggled to defend centers this year.
Towns leads the team with a +2.99 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where his reasonable $10,300 salary comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a massive 14 Pro Trends. It’s not the Target Center, but it’s still a solid situation.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Ricky Rubio has the worst FD Opponent Plus/Minus on the team at -1.12 against Patrick Beverley, who is one of the best PG defenders in the league (per our Matchups tool):
Further, he has terrible home/road splits. However, I’d venture to say that those splits are mostly tied to the play of his superstar in Towns. They’re the highest correlated players on the team:
Rubio is overpriced at $7,000 FD and in a bad spot, but if Towns goes off Rubio might as well. That’s worth a dart in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
And don’t forget about Andrew Wiggins, who is cheaper on DraftKings today ($8,100) and has absolutely crushed since Zach LaVine got injured.
Between James Harden, Eric Gordon, and the newly-acquired Lou Williams, the Rockets had 41 of their shots come from the SG position last game. Harden somehow had only nine of those, but he also had 14 assists: The Rockets had no issues with the new-look Pelicans, and Harden and coach Mike D’Antoni clearly wanted to get the new guy in Lou rolling. Harden’s issue today is that he leads the slate with a $12,200 DK salary, which means he needs 58.65 points to hit value. He’s certainly capable of doing that . . .
. . . and I wouldn’t be too worried about the nine shot attempts, but there is value at the SG spot today and some potential downside with the double-digit spread.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
The issue with this current Rockets squad is entirely DFS-related: Their depth makes them an awesome real-life team, but their production is so distributed outside of Harden that it makes them hard to roster despite having a high implied team total of 119.25 points. Here’s how they performed on Thursday:
Literally every player outside of Harden scored between 18 and 30 DK points. That’s nice production, but it doesn’t suggest they’re amazing GPP darts, and given their depth they also have somewhat risky floors. Taking a chance on a single guy is fine — perhaps Nene, who is near minimum price at $3,200 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a +7.45 DK Plus/Minus over that time — but don’t go overboard stacking guys here.
Point Guards
The PG spot is often loaded with plays given the state of the NBA, but that is not the case today. It’s tough to find a player worth paying up for: Stephen Curry is in that 22-point spread game versus the Nets and Jrue Holiday really struggled in his first game with DeMarcus Cousins, putting up only 19.5 DK points in 35.5 minutes. He should bounce back and is a nice GPP target, but it’s hard to trust him in cash games against the slow-paced Mavericks. As a result, Kyrie Irving might be the high-priced guy to target in tournaments: He’s averaged a +2.10 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 outings and continues to have nice splits with Kevin Love off the court:
Per our NBA On/Off tool, he leads the Cavs with a 4.1 percentage point usage rate increase in games sans Love.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
In terms of safe mid-priced guys, T.J. McConnell continues to produce even with a rotation of characters on the 76ers roster:
Today he faces a Knicks team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.9 points per 100 possessions on the year. He remains too cheap, especially on DK, where his $5,600 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He needs only 25.65 points to hit value at that price, which is a mark he’s easily exceeded over his last five games.
As a GPP pivot away from McConnell, the two Miami PGs — Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson — are both underpriced on DK at $6,800 and $5,100. They have Bargain Ratings of 98 and 90 percent. Johnson has certainly been the better DFS asset lately . . .
. . . and he’s $1,700 cheaper. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and put up 40.25 DK points in 26.1 minutes just last night. Dragic struggled, scoring only 33.0 DK points on 5-of-16 shooting, but the usage and minutes are still there, and he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership. One of these two guys will likely be a very valuable GPP asset today. Can you pick the right one?
Shooting Guards
The Bulls remain difficult to analyze: Bobby Portis was a chalky option in cash games with Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson traded, but he then played only 16.2 minutes and scored 19.75 DK points. On the wing, rookie Denzel Valentine got red-hot from the 3-point line, hitting five of his eight attempts, scoring 36.25 DK points in a surprising 34.5 minutes of action. He showed that he can put up other stats as well, getting three steals, five rebounds, and five assists, but his current role in the Bulls rotation is very unclear. Did he play so much simply because of his hot shooting? At $3,000 DK (SF) and $3,500 FD (SG), it’s certainly worth finding out in tournaments, but there’s definitely risk here.
Evan Fournier has not put up sexy numbers lately by any means . . .
. . . but it’s wise to be price-sensitive in DFS, and Fournier is somehow only $5,500 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He has a solid +1.50 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Hawks, who are solid defensively as a whole, ranking fifth in efficiency and allowing only 103.4 points per 100 possessions, but they struggle specifically against backcourts.
At that price point, Fournier needs only 22.01 FD points to hit value. At a likely 35-ish minutes, that seems reasonable.
We have to get in at least one Warrior: They’re implied for 129 points! They face the Nets, who rank first in pace, averaging 103.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions. The issue, again, is the 22-point spread. However, if I’m going to take a chance on a Warrior in tournaments, it’s Klay Thompson, who has been the most valuable Warrior this year in games with a spread of at least 15 points:
In those 14 instances this year, Klay has averaged 40.89 DK points and a ridiculous +11.1 Plus/Minus. And, yes, the Warriors have been 15-point favorites 14 times this year. Something, something, parity!
Small Forwards
I’m going to steal a clip from Labs writer Ian Hartitz’s great scouting report on Carmelo Anthony:
Today, Melo gets a Philly team that will again be without stud rim protector Joel Embiid. Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers have a Defensive Rating of 111.5 with Embiid off the floor this year: That would be much worse than even the rating of the Nuggets, who are the worst defensive team in the league. Melo does have a brutal matchup versus Robert Covington, who remains an elite defender . . .
. . . but Melo will also be without Kristaps Porzingis. Interestingly, Melo has actually been worse this year without Porz . . .
. . . but that also could regress over a larger sample. There are factors both positive and negative for Melo, which makes him an intriguing player in this seven-game main slate.
As for Covington, he continues to dominate in games without Embiid.
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +10.52 FD Plus/Minus over that time. Of current Philly guys, he leads the team with 29.6 DK points in 30.8 minutes per game in contests without Embiid.
Against a poor Knicks defense, Bob remains in play in all contest formats both on DK ($6,400) and FD ($6,800).
Terrence Ross, the ‘throw-in’ piece of the Serge Ibaka-to-Toronto trade, ended up starting on Thursday in his Magic debut and put up 25.5 FD points in 33.0 minutes of action. He will likely get the start again today . . .
. . . and, again, the backcourt is where you want to target players versus the Hawks. Ross is a solid bet to play 30-ish minutes, and he’s way underpriced, especially on FD, where his near-min $3,700 salary comes with nine Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forwards
Dario Saric was the sure-fire cash-game lock last night against the Wizards, and he did not disappoint:
Over the last 10 games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine and has averaged a ridiculous +10.02 FD Plus/Minus. In games without Embiid and now-Maverick Nerlens Noel, Saric has led the 76ers in minutes, DK points, and DK Plus/Minus.
And that does not even factor in the fact that his biggest competition for minutes, Ersan Ilyasova, was shipped to Atlanta over the All-Star break. Saric remains a cash-game lock again today.
And as a pivot, or even a stack in tournaments, his teammate Richaun Holmes should not be ignored. He put up a double-double of 12-10 along with two steals and five blocks in just 26.0 minutes of action last night — a 39.5-point FD outing. Jahlil Okafor will almost certainly continue to start at center in Embiid’s absence, but Holmes now has a pathway to 25-ish minutes, and he’s averaged 0.95 FD points per minute over the last year. At fairly low ownership, the min-priced Holmes is viable, especially against a Knicks team that is awful against opposing centers this year (Holmes is a PF on FD, but he plays exclusively center on the court):
We knew that (with McDermott and Gibson traded to the Thunder for point guard Cameron Payne) there would be additional minutes and value in the Bulls frontcourt. It was thought that Bobby Portis would fill in that role, but it turned out to be Nikola Mirotic instead, who put up 29.6 FD points in a surprising 36.8 minutes of action against the Suns.
Portis could very well get the start again tonight, but it could again be Niko who proves to be the superior DFS asset. Again, this Bulls rotation is very tough to analyze, which could provide an opportunity in GPPs. Niko has a +1.30 FD Opponent Plus/Minus today and is very affordable on FD, where his $4,000 salary comes with seven Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Centers
The Knicks are thin in their frontcourt with Porzingis and Joakim Noah both out versus the 76ers, which means that rookie Guillermo Hernangomez will get the start and should be in line for 30-ish minutes. He’s averaging an impressive 1.02 FD points per minute this year, and he’s been particularly excellent of late:
The 76ers are truly awful against centers this year — Hernangomez is second behind the Warriors’ centers with a massive +5.55 FD Opponent Plus/Minus today — and that does not even factor in Embiid’s absence. Noah and Porzingis have together missed only one game this year, but HernanGOATmez smashed in that one:
At only $5,900 on FD, where he has a 97 percent Bargain Rating, he should be quite chalky.
DeMarcus Cousins switched teams over the All-Star break, but it’s clear that his ball-dominant role has not changed:
The Pelicans played very poorly in their first game with Boogie, but Cousins was still able to put up 68.3 FD points in 34.7 minutes. His price has significantly dropped — he’s only $10,000 today — and he certainly has massive upside against a Dallas team that ranks dead last in rebound rate, grabbing only 46.3 percent of the available boards this season.
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Myles Turner is now $5,700 on DK and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership tonight. He faces a Miami team that has been the second-worst squad versus opposing centers this year:
He struggled for a bit but had a nice string of games prior to the All-Star break:
Given the chalkiness of Hernangomez — he’s $500 cheaper than Turner on FD but $800 more expensive on DK — pivoting to a guy like Turner with high upside is a nice move in GPPs.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
