Saturday brings a seven-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors
Will Stephen Curry play or sit? He’s dealing with a sore left quad that has rendered him questionable tonight. Coach Steve Kerr commented earlier this month about resting players throughout the remainder of the season, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Curry given the night off.
Kerr said he won't hesitate from resting more players going forward.
— Connor Letourneau (@Con_Chron) January 11, 2017
How do the Warriors stack up when Curry is off the court?
Kevin Durant gains a larger share of the offense, but the Plus/Minus differentials don’t deviate considerably. Durant’s assist rate and usage rate differentials predictably lead the team, and Klay Thompson‘s effective field goal rate drops 7.4 percent with the added defensive attention.
The matchup that could dictate the game:
Durant shot 5-of-17 in the first meeting against the Clippers, but he wasn’t solely guarded by Luc Mbah a Moute, who was limited to 15 minutes. Durant missed a triple-double by two rebounds and three assists, and he missed a lot of easy shots — including a breakaway dunk. The Warriors’ average lead in the game was 14.5 points, and they jumped out to a 37-19 first quarter lead.
Thompson delivers a noteworthy home/road split:
Combine that with his Consistency when the Warriors are double-digit favorites (image below), and it’s easy to consider him in cash games. If Curry is excused, Thompson will invoke additional GPP shares.
If Curry is ruled out, Shaun Livingston will likely step into the starting role. He’s extremely cheap, and he’ll split playing time with Patrick McCaw and Ian Clark. In three games without Curry last season, Livingston averaged 21.6 DK points in 29.5 minutes per game. The playing time is the most important aspect of Livingston’s appeal since he rarely sees more than 18 minutes on any given night.
How you approach many of the Warriors will depend on the timing of the news. The game starts 90 minutes after lineups lock for the main slate, and if we don’t get any word prior to 7pm ET, many of the Warriors players shift to GPP status. If news of Curry sitting circulates ahead of time, then Durant, Thompson, and even Draymond Green deserve consideration in all formats, and Livingston will become the chalk play at point guard.
The Clippers played the last game without Doc Rivers patrolling the sidelines. Assistant coach Mike Woodson stepped in and Blake Griffin played 29 minutes in his first game back following knee surgery. Griffin was stymied by Green in the first meeting, committing seven turnovers and shooting 5-of-20 from the field. Now that Griffin is back, Rivers can begin to run a regular rotation, but I can’t see him ignoring his three-guard lineup with Raymond Felton, Austin Rivers, and Jamal Crawford. Rivers offers the most value due to the playing time he gets as the starting point guard and backup shooting guard/small forward. The problem with cashing Rivers is his point guard designation on FD, where plenty of alternatives exist.
Point Guards
Isaiah Thomas headlines a Celtics team playing their fourth game in five nights. I have a stern policy about avoiding teams on such schedules, but the Celtics handily defeated the Magic last night and were able to rest many of their starters. Thomas has been money with Avery Bradley out of the lineup, averaging 49.8 DraftKings points in those nine contests. In the last six games Thomas has played on the second night of a back-to-back, he’s exceeded 50 DK points each time; five of those instances came on the road. And tonight he faces a team ranked 28th in defensive efficiency in January. Because of Thomas’ salary, which ranks first among point guard-only players, and his projected ownership, which again ranks first at his position, fading him in GPPs isn’t egregious. However, the safety he provides shouldn’t go unnoticed in cash games. He leads all point guards with 49.8 DK points over the past 14 games.
Eric Bledsoe cannot get out of his own way. He’s played less than 30 minutes in two straight games, and in both instances, he was limited because of early foul trouble. The Suns and Nuggets play for the second time in three days, and Bledsoe still has the 60.0 DraftKings performance against the Nuggets on his ledger this season. Point guards have averaged the best Plus/Minus against the Nuggets, and as long as Bledsoe, who averaged 2.7 fouls in 33.0 minutes per game, can curtail his recent fouling tendencies, he should garner interest in all formats. The Nuggets-Suns’ total is a slate-best 227.5 points, and the three-point spread helps to ensure typical playing time.
Ricky Rubio gets the second-best matchup for point guards this season, and in three games against the Nets since 2014, he’s been solid:
Home Rubio is the preferred Rubio:
Goran Dragic remains viable with the threat of Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson not playing (both are questionable). When Whiteside, Johnson, Justise Winslow, and Josh Richardson are off the court, Dion Waiters averages 1.5 DK points per minute and Dragic provides 1.4 DK points per minute. Waiters will likely be guarded by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. His salary has also increased $2,800 over the past month, which further hinders his value.
Mike Conley may draw the worst matchup for point guards, but that’s softened by a lackadaisical January stretch that has resulted in the highest Plus/Minus for point guards facing the Jazz. His projected ownership in GPPs is on the lighter side, and the 188.5 Vegas total will rightfully scare away the public.
Jameer Nelson provides value at a position with Emmanuel Mudiay ruled out. He’ll likely remain in the starting lineup against the Suns, a team he played 42 minutes against on Thursday, including the entire second half. Playing time alone merits cash-game shares.
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker and Zach LaVine both lead the position in Opponent Plus/Minus among projected starters. LaVine finally had a solid game after missing time with a hip injury, and Booker has been consistent ever since T.J. Warren replaced P.J. Tucker in the starting lineup. Tucker moving to the second unit meant Booker would have to face Tucker in practice, which has led to his improved aggressiveness. Booker offers 100 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the past month, and he’s a solid cash-game play. LaVine constantly has to fight for offensive touches, and if he doesn’t have it going, Andrew Wiggins will likely take over.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is back in the lineup, and the Pistons haven’t played since Monday. In his first game back, Caldwell-Pope provided 34.75 DK points in 36.7 minutes. He’s a slightly better bargain on FD, and when he’s played more than 30 minutes in a game dating back to December 23rd, he’s posted at least 29.1 FD points in seven of the nine instances.
How has Bojan Bogdanovic fared on the second night of a back-to-back set? The Trends tool should provide clarity:
I venture to say he’s done quite well. Coach Kenny Atkinson has rested nearly every Net this season except Bogdanovic. I’m not sure if he’s next on the hit list, but the Nets are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, which makes it difficult to select who will be the value ahead of time.
Small Forwards
I have two conflicting trends pertaining to Danilo Gallinari. First, he faces the Suns — a matchup that resulted in 35.9 FanDuel points on Thursday. Second, he has a poor 36 percent Consistency Rating when the Nuggets are underdogs this season. The second one may not matter much with Nikola Jokic and Mudiay unavailable. Per 36 minutes, Gallinari averages 31.7 DK points, clearing today’s salary-implied total by 4.05 points, and Wilson Chandler averages a team-best 1.02 FanDuel points per minute. Chandler also plays power forward, so his minutes won’t conflict with those of Gallinari, generating a solid two-man stack at small forward on FD.
Jae Crowder and Jaylen Brown are a cheaper duo at small forward, but Brown’s salary is more conducive to a punt play. Crowder continues to exceed salary-based expectations, and small forwards opposing the Bucks this season have been a gold mine (save for two near-duds from Jimmy Butler). Coach Jason Kidd typically tosses Jabari Parker on opposing small forwards in order to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo closer to the basket.
The image above shows how small forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes have done this season. The Nuggets face the Suns, and we already touched on Chandler and Gallinari.
Andrew Wiggins is the small forward slated to play the Nets tonight. His position-high Opponent Plus/Minus is magnified by his minutes, which hasn’t dipped below 38 in five straight games. Despite being the lone small forward at his salary range to produce less than 1.0 DK points per minute, Wiggins compensates by playing a ton of minutes. The plus matchup and stable minutes increase his viability in cash games.
Let’s welcome P.J. Tucker back into the conversation. He’s cheap enough to be considered a value play, and in Thursday’s game against the Nuggets, he relied mostly on scoring. His teammate, T.J. Warren, woke up from a slumber and scored over 21 actual points for the first time since the first of the month. Dragan Bender wasn’t available in the last game and Marquese Chriss picked up four fouls in eight minutes. Because of the lack of big men, coach Earl Watson decided to play small ball, which reduced Tyson Chandler‘s minutes. In turn, Warren and Tucker played a combined 80 minutes.
Power Forwards
Jabari Parker joins the group of players with extreme home/road splits:
He gains more acclaim when the Bucks are favored:
As fate would have it, the Bucks are favored at home tonight.
In three games against the Jazz this season, Zach Randolph has recorded three double-doubles and posted at least 30.0 DraftKings points. He played between 22 and 28 minutes in those low scoring, low-paced games. Power forward isn’t a glamorous position on this slate, and Randolph will likely be counted on again to give the Grizzlies punch off the bench. Chandler Parsons will likely be rested, shifting James Ennis to the starting lineup. In the 21 games Randolph has played without Parsons, he’s averaged 25.1 FD points in 23.3 minutes.
I’m not sure what Jonas Jerebko has against the Milwaukee Bucks, but he averages more points against them than any other team since joining the Celtics. I don’t know if he’ll remain in the starting lineup ahead of Amir Johnson if Al Horford is cleared to play, but based on the matchup and his recent play, Jerebko profiles as a punt play at a mediocre position.
Expect Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried to see plenty of minutes at center with Jokic injured. Faried is presently probable to play with a sore left hamstring, and his percentages diminish when Jokic is off the court. Arthur will likely be capped around 20 minutes, and on Thursday both he and Faried played less than 22 minutes against the Suns.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns will play a home game against the team that ranks first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. Additionally, he possesses the best Opponent Plus/Minus on either platform. I’m not sure you can ask for a better matchup. The 11-point spread is slightly worrisome, but Brook Lopez has already been confirmed in, which can help keep the game relevant. Speaking of Lopez, he offers solid value on DraftKings at $6,300. In eight of his last nine games, Lopez has posted more than 30.0 DraftKings points. His salary-implied point total today rests at 29.15. If you’re looking to save some salary, dropping down from Towns to Lopez — a savings of $4,300 — will help.
DeMarcus Cousins is the most expensive option on both sites, and his history against the Hornets is sublime:
The most recent result was a double overtime game in which Cousins played 45.6 minutes and the Hornets started Spencer Hawes at center with Cody Zeller injured. Zeller may not suit up tonight, but the Hornets will likely call Roy Hibbert’s number if that’s the case.
Cousins has not been as viable on the second night of back-to-back sets, and the Kings are playing their sixth game in nine nights. He’ll remain an elite GPP play, but the workload over a condensed period of time is extremely concerning.
Andre Drummond has posted solid lines against the Heat in his career, and two of his four highest-scoring outputs this season have come against the Heat. In the second meeting, Whiteside wasn’t available, and Willie Reed was limited to 18 minutes.
Whiteside’s status for tonight game remains in limbo, and if he can’t go, rolling with Reed as the value play at center becomes an option. Either way, Drummond surfaces as a viable tournament pivot from the likes of Towns and Cousins.
When Jokic is off the court, the Nuggets’ Offensive Rating drops to 102.7 points scored per 100 possessions. For comparison, since Jokic entered the starting lineup on December 15th, the Nuggets rank first in Offensive Rating at 115.1 points scored per 100 possessions. When Jusuf Nurkic is on the court, the Nuggets’ Offensive Rating plummets to a team-worst 98.6 points scored per 100 possessions. Nurkic will likely replace the injured Jokic in the starting lineup, but he didn’t even get on the court when the Nuggets played the Suns on Thursday. I’m preparing from some chicanery by coach Michael Malone, but the obvious move is to shift Nurkic into that starting lineup and monitor his minutes from there.
In the four games Jokic missed this season, Nurkic provided 25.1 DraftKings points in 20.9 minutes. As you can tell, the minutes could be a problem this evening, but he’s too cheap on DK and FD to fade entirely.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
