Saturday brings a six-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry has been quite un-Steph like for most of the year, including his last game in which he scored only 34 DraftKings points in 33.8 minutes against the Knicks on a miserable 3-of-14 shooting. A matchup against the Trail Blazers is the medicine that cures all woes, and Steph is now down to only $8,500 on DK, where he has 13 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. There are quite a few cheaper PGs who will likely warrant cash-game consideration, but paying up for a stud like Steph with a high 58.3-point projected ceiling could be the move for guaranteed prize pools. Portland continues to own the league’s worst defense this season, allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions, and the Warriors are currently implied for a slate-high 122.25 points.
Value
While the Hawks have been solid overall defensively this season, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency and allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions, they have been absolutely miserable defending opposing PGs. As a result, Kemba Walker (set to return to the lineup after missing last night’s game for personal reasons) has a massive +5.09 Opponent Plus/Minus. Kemba has been up and down lately but bounced back in his last game, scoring 34.7 FanDuel points in 35.6 minutes against the Wizards. He’s projected for 32.5 minutes and a huge 30.01 usage rate in a very beatable matchup. At $7,400 FD, he needs only 30.35 points to hit value.
Leverage Play
The PG position is loaded today, which makes mid-tier options like Dennis Schroder ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD) intriguing in tournaments. Schroder has crushed value lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games, averaging a massive +10.40 FD Plus/Minus in that span. The Hornets have been one of the worst teams in the league versus PGs this year: Schroder owns a +2.91 DK Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a position-high +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is easily the most expensive SG in the slate: His $11,600 FD price tag is a whopping $4,200 more than that of any other SG. He also has easily the highest projected ceiling: His 76.3-point mark is 28.8 points higher than that of the next guy in Nicolas Batum. Harden dropped 67.75 DK points last night against the Pelicans on 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists in 33.8 minutes. The back-to-back isn’t ideal, but he’s facing a Wolves team that has been awful defensively this season: They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.9 points per 100 possessions. He will match up with Zach LaVine, who has an awful -3.0 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had reportedly been dealing with an ankle injury and was questionable to play last night, but he looked just fine, scoring 38.5 DK points in 33.8 minutes against the Wizards. He had 24 real points and now faces an Indiana team that has been mediocre defensively this season, allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions. He’s projected to play 34 minutes and is still incredibly cheap on DK, where his low $4,600 salary comes with a +3.05 Projected Plus/Minus, six Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the No. 1 option in the Phan Model for DK, where he’s projected for a chalky 17-20 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Zach LaVine has been surprisingly consistent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaging a +7.41 FD Plus/Minus during that time frame. He dropped 40.2 FD points in 43.2 minutes against the Bulls on 12/13 and the Wolves haven’t played since then. He gets a Houston team on the second leg of a back-to-back and will face Harden, who ever since joining the Rockets has struggled defensively because of his offensive workload: He owns a -0.8 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year. LaVine is projected for 38.5 minutes and a 22.89 usage rate. He’s a nice tournament target on FD, where his $6,500 salary comes with a +2.10 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
There is risk in rostering LeBron James tonight — the Cavs are a slate-high 15.5-point favorites — but there’s also massive upside against a Lakers team that ranks third-worst in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions. He’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last six games. Just two games ago against the Hornets he had a ridiculous 72.8-point FD performance. He’s currently projected to play 36.7 minutes with a 30.25 usage rate, although there is a chance he could play limited minutes if the game is a rout. Still, he’s the No. 2 option in both the DK and FD Phan Models and is an elite GPP option: He leads all SFs with a 65.8-point projected DK ceiling.
Value
Wilson Chandler is probable to play today and has a nice matchup against a Knicks team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions on the season. He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $6,000 salary comes with a position-high +5.40 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating. He had 33.1 FD points last game against the Blazers, but the most important stat is that he played 35.2 minutes. He’s projected for 32.5 minutes and a 24.42 usage rate tonight, and he’s projected for a chalky 21-25 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Kevin Durant is in a similar spot to LeBron’s: He’s facing an awful defense — Portland ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.6 points per 100 possessions — yet the Warriors are massive 13.5-point favorites. Durant has been fairly safe in large-spread games this year, but he has struggled lately: He’s missed salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games and averaged only a +0.15 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Still, there is no denying his upside in this matchup: He has a +1.73 Opponent Plus/Minus and will face Moe Harkless, who has allowed opposing SFs to score 1.4 points above expectations in the past year. Durant is currently the No. 1 option in the Phan Model for DK, where his depressed $9,400 salary comes with a +2.75 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis is coming off perhaps his worst game of the season, scoring only 12 FD points on eight real points in 35.4 minutes versus the Warriors. That said, the matchup versus Draymond Green and Durant is one of the worst in the NBA and Kristaps had back-to-back 53-plus FD outings prior to that game. He has a much easier matchup tonight against a Denver team that ranks 26th defensively, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions. He has a nice +2.19 Opponent Plus/Minus and will likely start opposite Chandler, who is listed as seven inches shorter than Porzingis. Kristaps is currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for DK, where his $7,500 salary comes with a +3.55 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Nikola Jokic is easily the No. 1 option on FD, where his low $5,900 salary comes with a position-high +5.74 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He has a massive +3.93 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Knicks, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency on the year and have allowed a poor 107.5 points per 100 possessions. Jokic has crushed value lately: He has exceeded value in each of his last five games, and he posted a ridiculous +24.75 FD Plus/Minus just two games ago against the Dallas Mavericks. He should be chalky and is projected for 17-20 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Jon Leuer is a risky punt play at $4,200 DK, but he’s scored 31-plus DK points in back-to-back games, playing above 30 minutes in each contest. He’s currently projected for 26.8 minutes and a 17.55 usage rate, but he has the upside to exceed both of those marks as shown by his recent games. He has a massive +3.81 Opponent Plus/Minus against Indiana, who has allowed a mediocre 104.7 points per 100 possessions and struggled to defend opposing PFs this season. This game has a low Vegas total of 200.5 points, which makes Leuer a cheap contrarian play with underappreciated upside.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is easily No. 1 in the DK and FD Models among centers, mostly because of his +4.93 and +4.17 Opponent Plus/Minus values against the Pacers, who have been awful against centers on the year: Drummond will match up against Myles Turner, who has some defensive potential but hasn’t yet realized it in his short career. Turner has allowed opposing centers to score 4.9 points above salary-based expectations in the last year. Drummond has been awful in his last two games, scoring only 26.9 and 19.4 FD points against the Wizards and Mavericks, but he has huge upside against an Indy team that ranks 29th in rebound rate (47.3 percent) on the season.
Value
Tristan Thompson has an even better Opponent Plus/Minus than Drummond’s at +6.42. The Lakers have been terrible defensively this year: They currently rank 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions. They have been particularly awful against opposing centers and rank below average in both rebound rate and defensive rebound rate. The Cavs are currently implied to score 117 points — the second-highest mark in the slate — and Tristan is projected to play 27.9 minutes. He’s currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his $4,900 price tag comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a volatile DFS asset this season, but he’s likely the most talented center in the slate. He faces a Houston team on the second leg of a back-to-back, and he owns a nice +1.72 Opponent Plus/Minus. Houston hasn’t been great defensively this year, allowing 104.4 points per 100 possessions. KAT has the position’s highest-projected floor at 22.3 FD points, and he’s projected for 34.1 minutes and a 27.04 usage rate. He’s perhaps a bit overpriced at $8,700 DK and $8,900 FD, but he has a GPP-winning ceiling and will likely come at reduced ownership because of Drummond’s price and matchup.
News Updates
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