Uncertainty is the theme of today’s 10-game slate. Twelve of the 20 teams have players with unresolved statuses. Blake Griffin is a game-time decision for a game that tips off at 10:30pm ET.
The Heat and Magic are playing their fourth game in five nights. Since the Heat are down to nine healthy players, recommending any of them feels like a sin, especially after their effort last night. The Magic are playing their seventh game in 10 days, and they’ve failed to score more than 88 points in their last two games.
Three of the four teams presently implied to score at least 110 points are also double-digit favorites.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall and Damian Lillard headline the stud point guards. Lillard’s floor is comparable to Wall’s on DraftKings at a savings of $600. When Lillard faced the Pacers at the end of November, he supplied 58.75 DK points in 35 minutes. Wall faces a Bucks team that allowed Dennis Schroder to score 33 actual points and 45.25 DK points in 40 minutes last night. Wall has provided higher Consistency and Upside over the past month, giving him the slight edge despite the pricing gap. However, Lillard’s prior performance against the Pacers boosts his stock in guaranteed prize pools.
Values
Point guards have been successful against the Hornets this season. Collectively, they’ve averaged a +2.26 DK Plus/Minus with 60.8 percent Consistency. Kyrie Irving was one of the few point guards who failed to meet salary-based expectations against the Hornets earlier this season, but that was in a game in which coach Ty Lue decided to roll with LeBron James and four reserves for the entire fourth quarter.
I wanted to refrain from suggesting players on the Magic, but point guards facing the Nuggets continue to exceed value. D.J. Augustin gets a revenge game of sorts, and he leads all points guards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.63 on FanDuel, where he’s $3,800. He hasn’t exceeded 20 FD points in six straight games, making him more of a punt play.
Leverage Play
Stephen Curry costs the same as Lillard on DK and Chris Paul on FD. His performance has regressed lately, and the Warriors are currently 12-point favorites. It’s reasonable to take a chance on him in tournaments solely for the discrepancy in projected ownership.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Mavericks and Rockets played twice during the month of October. The Rockets won both, and James Harden averaged 27.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 8.5 free-throw attempts. Those numbers sit below his season averages, and he failed to exceed 49 DK points and 45 FD points in both games. Harden is the most expensive player on both platforms, and the Mavericks rank 29th in pace this season. The only other shooting guards priced higher than $7,000 to face the Mavericks this season accumulated 27.4 DK and 17 FD points. It’s a situation to avoid in cash game circles.
Values
Wesley Matthews has posted at least 28 DK points in six of the past seven games, and his shot has begun to fall with consistency. The Rockets remain a bottom-10 defense, and shooting guards projected to play at least 25 minutes have averaged a +4.65 Plus/Minus on 73.9 percent Consistency against them this season.
Langston Galloway’s viability rests on the availability of Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore, who’ve missed the past two games due to toe injuries. Over that span, Galloway has averaged 28.5 FD points as the only other offensive threat outside of Anthony Davis. He’s a streaky shooter, and the matchup against the Clippers hasn’t been kind to opposing shooting guards this season. However, the minutes and opportunity should be available if Tim Frazier and Buddy Hield are forced to start.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum costs the same as Bradley Beal on DK and $400 more on FD. Over the past month, McCollum has produced 92 percent Consistency on DK to Beal’s 64 percent. The last time McCollum faced the Pacers, he accrued 39.75 DK points in 34 minutes, a point total that would clear today’s salary-implied total by 7.6 points.
Small Forward
Stud
The Warriors are presently 12.5-point Vegas favorites. They’ve been double-digit favorites 16 times this season, and in those games Kevin Durant has led the team with a +5.04 DK Plus/Minus on 75 percent Consistency and a +7.14 FD Plus/Minus on 81 percent Consistency. After a few games priced above $10,000, his salary has decreased enough for Durant to be in consideration for cash games, but his best use is in tournaments in case the game gets out of hand quickly.
Value
Aaron Gordon and Solomon Hill aren’t your first choices, but they make the proverbial cut due to a potential for additional playing time.
Jeff Green is questionable due to an ankle injury, and if he doesn’t play then Gordon would likely be asked to play more than 30 minutes for the first time in eight games. He could also see minutes at power forward if Nikola Vucevic or Bismack Biyombo are ruled out. Both are questionable to play. Gordon breaks my rule of suggesting players from a team playing its fourth game in five nights, but the Nuggets are ranked sixth in pace (101.5 possessions per 48 minutes) and 24th in Defensive Rating (106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Hill may have a larger task at hand. The Pelicans released Anthony Brown on Friday, and he had averaged 23.6 minutes per game the past two games as Hill’s backup. The Pelicans could be without Holiday and Moore, leaving them eight healthy players, the newly-signed Reggie Williams, and perhaps D-League call-up Cheick Diallo. The matchup isn’t pleasant, but Hill is the first player this season priced no higher than $3600 FD to be projected for at least 37 minutes. The previous 31 players priced that low projected to play at least 30 minutes produced a +5.37 FD Plus/Minus on 64.5 percent Consistency.
Leverage Play
LeBron James costs $100 more than Durant on DK and $100 less than Durant on FD. Both are projected for similar ownership on both sites, and James isn’t likely to rest today because the Cavaliers are playing at home. James also doesn’t get the easy matchup that awaits Kawhi Leonard, but the last time James faced the Hornets he exceeded salary-based expectations. Leonard will likely be the chalk play at small forward, and James will be overlooked as he battles Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and the Hornets’ top-five ranked defense.
Power Forward
Studs
Anthony Davis was limited to 36.2 FD points the last time he faced the Clippers, and he also exited the game briefly due to a shoulder injury. In the past two games sans Holiday and Moore, Davis has been the entire offense. He and Langston Galloway were the only players to score at least 10 actual points in the last two games, and Davis has played at least 41 minutes in three straight games. His performance history against the Clippers is unsettling — a -14.38 DK Plus/Minus in five games — and Luc Mbah a Moute was used in the past game to reduce Davis’ effectiveness. DK is where you would consider using Davis because of the $400 difference, but he’s battling a plethora of injuries, and the Pelicans are 13-point underdogs. As is the case with Harden, warning signs are evident.
Value
Markieff Morris and Dwight Powell cost less than $5,000 FD. Morris has provided more than his implied point total of 18.93 points in five straight games, and Powell has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight games. Morris’ claim on minutes is stronger, making him the more lethal cash play. Powell’s minutes have ebbed and flowed, limiting him to tournaments due to the volatility.
Leverage Play
Serge Ibaka will likely skyrocket up the Players Models once Biyombo or Vucevic is ruled out. The game starts early enough that you may not gain a substantial edge with the upgrade, but if either Biyombo or Vucevic becomes a game-time decision then rostering Ibaka won’t leave you scrambling once news breaks one way or the other.
Blake Griffin remains a game-time decision. He is dealing with a sore right knee that the team is monitoring. We aren’t expected to know his status until well after the main slate locks, which makes him a flyer in DK GPPs. When the Clippers faced the Pelicans last week, Griffin registered 50.5 DK points in 34 minutes. The Vegas line has yet to be set, but the Pelicans will likely have eight or nine players available.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 57.19 FD points per game over the past eight games. In that time, he has exceeded 50 FD points each game, and his 38.1 percent usage rate ranks second to Russell Westbrook’s. That’s the good news. Unfortunately, Cousins will face the Utah Jazz and Rudy Gobert. Cousins’ FD Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.07 is the lowest among listed starting centers.
Although Cousins doesn’t start at center, he’ll likely see his fair share of Gobert because Kosta Koufos has averaged 18.1 minutes per game over the last eight. The $11,200 FD salary is excessive, but Cousins’ +6.37 Projected Plus/Minus leads all centers. In two meetings against Gobert and the Jazz last season, Cousins produced 57.9 and 57.5 FD points. In the latter meeting, Gobert fouled out in 22 minutes.
Exposure to Cousins is better reserved for DK, where his price took a substantial hit in advance of today’s game. In two games against the Knicks over the past week, Cousins cost $10,900. His salary today is $10,300. Gobert has already fouled out of two games this season, but he’s done well to limit his personal fouls over the last nine games. If Cousins, the league leader in drawing personal fouls at 8.8 per game, can get Gobert in foul trouble, the Jazz lack alternative options to restrain Cousins.
Value
The center spot is littered with value plays today. John Henson’s production has regressed following two outlier games against the Nets, but his minutes have stabilized. He’s played at least 25 minutes in four straight games for the first time since the 2013-14 season when Larry Sanders and Zaza Pachulia missed time due to injury. Henson’s DK Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.87 offers assurance that coach Jason Kidd could never provide. Miles Plumlee was excised from the rotation six games prior, and that’s allowed Greg Monroe to play minutes similar to Henson’s. Coming off the bench will be a boon for him since the Wizards’ 110.6 Defensive Rating from their bench is last in the league.
Mason Plumlee already recorded 37.75 DK points against the Pacers less than two weeks ago. His salary has since dropped $500, and now that Al-Farouq Aminu is doubtful to play, there will be more playing time available in the frontcourt. That means that Meyers Leonard won’t exclusively play backup center, affording Plumlee a longer leash.
Leverage Play
Hassan Whiteside already recorded 20 points and 20 rebounds against the Bulls earlier this season. His projected ownership ranks second to DeMarcus Cousins’ among centers on FD, where he’s one of the top-rated FD players at his position. However, I’m ignoring him after he was benched last night for almost the entire third quarter. It was reported later that Whiteside is dealing with a left knee issue. That’s why I’m looking at Marc Gasol at a cheaper price point. The offense runs through him in Memphis, and he’s exceeded 43 FD points in five straight games. Cheap is the way to go at center, but if you’re willing to spend up then Gasol has the better recent form and schedule advantage.
News Updates
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