Tonight brings an eight-game main slate starting at 6:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook missed value on FanDuel by 9.22 points last game against the Warriors . . . and still had 42.2 points. It was easily his worst game of the year, scoring ‘only’ 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in 28.9 minutes. However, there should be a lot of context brought up here: It was on the second leg of a brutal road back-to-back — at the Clippers and at Golden State — and he played abbreviated minutes because it was a blowout. That doesn’t project to be the case tonight: The Thunder are back at home as six-point favorites over the Ricky Rubio-less Minnesota Timberwolves. Westbrook’s price has come somewhat down to $11,800 on FD — he was up at $13,000 just three games ago — and is projected for 34.4 minutes and a silly-high 40.51 usage rate. He’s implied for 49.66 points at that salary, but his current FD projection of 57.7 far surpasses that.
Value
In Kris Dunn‘s first game as the Wolves’ starting PG, he put up 24.5 FD points at a $4,900 price tag, which is exactly where he’s at again today. He’s projected for 29.5 minutes and has one of the highest FD Projected Plus/Minus values among PGs at +5.23. The Thunder have a stout defense, but they’ve actually been poor against opposing PGs, which is likely because of Westbrook’s massive usage rate on the offensive end. There is some risk here given it’s Dunn’s second career start, but his price tag warrants exposure in tournaments.
Leverage Play
In the FD Phan Model, the fourth-highest rated PG is Elfrid Payton. Elf is finally getting minutes this season — he’s played at least 33 in each of his last three games — and it’s allowed him to consistently hit value: He’s exceeded his salary-based expectations in all five games this year. And interestingly, his price hasn’t moved despite the solid play and consistent minutes. He’s only $6,100 on FD and boasts the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among FD PGs (again behind Westbrook). He’s projected for 34.5 minutes and a 20.88 usage rate, and he’ll get a John Wall-less Wizards backcourt. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Tomas Satoransky could get the start in Wall’s absence; he received 22 minutes off the bench to Trey Burke‘s seven. Either way, this is a plus matchup for Elf and he’s a nice pivot up from the likely value plays of Murray, Kris Dunn, and Patty Mills.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Hawks have held firm as a top-five defense to open the year and will get the task of guarding James Harden today. Harden is very expensive; he’s only $100 less than Westbrook on FanDuel. However, he’s coming off FD games of 60.7 and 72.9 points, the latter of which was against a tough Cavaliers team on the road. This Atlanta team might not be a defense to test right now, so that may take Harden out of cash games. However, he shouldn’t be faded in tournaments: He showed in that Cavs game that he can put up massive games any time. He still leads the entire NBA in assists at 12.4 per game and is fourth in scoring at 31.8 points per game. He’s projected for 37.1 minutes, a silly-high 32.57 usage rate, and a massive 70.3-point projected FD ceiling. He certainly has GPP-winning upside even in the tough matchup.
Values
There are quite a number of values at SG today, which is a pretty rare occurrence. Because of injuries to Rubio and Wall, their respective backcourt mates in Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal stand to get a bump up in usage and play-making responsibility. Currently, they hold two of the top-four Projected Plus/Minus marks on FD of +5.90 and +5.07, respectively. LaVine has the higher ceiling of the two — he’s projected at a 41.7-point ceiling and had 31 real points just two games ago — but Beal is projected for more minutes at 36.2. As mentioned above, the Wizards could start and play some combination of Satoransky and Burke. Beal should be needed to provide some offense. He is currently the highest-rated player in both the DK and FD Phan Model.
Leverage Plays
The third-highest rated SG in the DK Phan Model is a very confusing player: Dwyane Wade. After being a non-existent 3-point threat for his entire career, he drained 5-of-7 from beyond the arc last game against the Knicks, putting up 35 points and 51.5 DK points in 33.3 minutes. He now has 10 3-pointers on the season, after making seven all year last season in 2,258 minutes with the Heat. Again, he’s very confusing. Today he’ll face a Pacers team that has been incredibly poor defensively this season: They have allowed 110.3 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst mark in the league. Jimmy Butler should get the Paul George treatment, which sets up Wade for another potential big game. He’s projected for 32.3 minutes and a 26.8 usage rate.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James is currently the highest-rated SF in both the DK and FD Phan Models. The Cavs will face the 76ers today and are currently 13.5-point favorites and implied for a slate-high 110.5 points. As such, LeBron has the highest projected ceiling on FD among SFs at 63.1 points. There is a bit of a blowout risk, but that was also the case against the Celtics last game without Al Horford and Jae Crowder, and LeBron still put up 30 points, seven rebounds, and 12 assists — a 56.4-point FD game — in 36.4 minutes of action. We have him projected for 34.6 minutes tonight and he has a high Projected Plus/Minus on FD of +7.15. It’s understandable if you want to look elsewhere in cash games because of the high spread, but you shouldn’t completely fade in tournaments.
Kawhi Leonard has simply been one of the best players in the world over the first part of the season. He’s now averaging 28.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.7 steals on 50.9 percent shooting and a high 33.1 usage rate in 32 minutes per game. Those are MVP marks. In a tough matchup last game — both in terms of opponent defense and combined pace — Kawhi put up 51.2 FD points against the Jazz. Tonight he gets a Clippers team that currently ranks first overall in defensive efficiency on the season but are weakest at the SF position. Kawhi will match up against Luc Mbah a Moute, who has allowed 1.2 points above salary-based expectations to opponents over the past year. Kawhi can certainly beat this matchup.
Values
LeBron and Kawhi actually own the highest Projected Plus/Minus marks in the slate among SFs today. Two wings below them on DK are Tobias Harris (+2.65) and Otto Porter (+2.55). Tobias has actually been really good for the Pistons this year, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in every game this season. He’s scored 31.5 and 45.0 FD points in his last two games in 35 minutes of action. He’s definitely the safer of the two, as shown by his superior 17-point projected floor. Porter has been very up-and-down, but it’s important to note that he’s getting a massive amount of minutes lately. He’s played at least 36 or more in each of his last three games and he’s projected for 34.9 minutes today. There’s a chance that the Wizards let Beal handle the ball a little more today and have to use Porter and their other wings a little more as well. Tobias is the superior cash-game option if you’re paying down, but Otto has some sneaky tournament value.
Leverage Play
Paul George is somehow $300 more expensive than Kawhi Leonard today. That’s not ideal, but it should work to drastically reduce George’s ownership across the board. Our FD ownership projections confirm that: PG is projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of contests. He’s been a bit volatile this year, but he hasn’t scored below 20 points in any game and if he can cut down on his turnovers — he has 12 combined in the last two games — he could put up a massive game. He gets the Bulls on a back-to-back and, since the Pacers are so terribly defensively, George might have to play with a high usage rate to keep them in the game. He’s certainly in a tier below LeBron and Kawhi, but that might make him a superior play in large-field GPPs given his pricing.
Power Forward
Value
Whether it was Rubio’s absence or just a randomly off night, Gorgui Dieng really struggled last outing against the Denver Nuggets. He scored only two points, grabbed four rebounds, and turned the ball over four times in 27.9 minutes of action — an embarrassing 7.8-point FD outing. That hopefully is the outlier of the season, as he had scored at least 35 FD points in every other game this year. His price has dropped back down to $6,100 on FD and he owns the highest Projected Plus/Minus mark among PFs in the slate at +5.66. He’s currently projected for 33.1 minutes and a 17.21 usage rate, so he should have ample opportunity to bounce back. He’s in a tough matchup against a stout Thunder frontcourt, but his great price is worth chasing in tournaments.
Leverage Play
Two of the highest-rated PFs in the FD Phan Model are Markieff Morris and Kevin Love. Markieff was a solid play last night, putting up 36.3 FD points in 32.7 minutes against a tough Atlanta defense. He had been struggling before that, but the minutes had been there: He had received at least 35 minutes in each of the last two games prior to last night. Tonight he projects to play 32.8 minutes and use 23.12 percent of the possessions while on the floor against the Orlando Magic, who currently rank fifth-worst on defense. Love hasn’t been playing minutes in the high-30s like Morris, but he’s been incredibly efficient this year and has still hit value. He’s hit value in four of his last five games despite seeing around 30 minutes per game. Today he gets a dream matchup against the 76ers, who again are a bottom-10 defense. Both players are projected for nine to 12 percent ownership on FD.
Center
Stud
Last game, DeMarcus Cousins put up 51.4 FD points in 36.3 minutes of action. Today he gets a Milwaukee team that ranks in the bottom-10 on defense and doesn’t rebound the ball well: They’ve posted a 77.4 Rebound Rate (per ESPN) so far this season, a mark that ranks 23rd in the league. The Kings have played big this season, which means that Kosta Koufos should start against Miles Plumlee and Cousins should draw the much smaller Jabari Parker. There’s a chance that Milwaukee switches that, but neither matchup is particularly concerning: Plumlee has allowed a +8.3 Plus/Minus and Parker a +9.0 Plus/Minus to opposing players over the past year. Boogie is the highest-rated center in the FD Phan Model and is playable in all contest formats.
Value
Two centers with very high Projected Plus/Minus values on FD are Joel Embiid (+6.47) and Marcin Gortat (+5.38). They’re very different kind of DFS plays: Embiid is projected for only 24.4 minutes, while Gortat is projected for 33.1. The reason that Embiid has such a high projection despite the low minute total is because of his usage rate: He currently leads the entire league at 40.4 percent. Pretty much, he shoots the ball every single time he touches it. Westbrook is proud. Gortat shoots it far less often, but he’s now grabbed double-digit rebounds in all four games this year and will get a Magic team that ranks 26th on defense. Both players are a solid bet to hit value tonight.
Leverage Play
Just $200 more expensive than Gortat is Jusuf Nurkic ($6,000), who will face the Detroit Pistons as 4.5-point dogs tonight. Nurkic was definitely the less-heralded Denver big man, but he’s been excellent this year, exceeding value in all four of his games by an average of 12.53 FD points. Tonight he is projected for 26.7 minutes but a nice 24.91 usage rate. He has a +5.2 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where he boasts a 95 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends. He comes with five to eight percent ownership and is a nice leverage play off Gortat or Embiid.
Good luck!
News Updates
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