Jimmy Butler and Anthony Davis are on the injury report. They are two of the three most-expensive players in the four-game main slate that kicks off at 5pm ET. Three of the four games carry spreads of at least nine points. Let’s gingerly navigate what looks to be a difficult slate.
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls
Vegas: 205 over/under, Bulls -2
Dating back to December 26th — when Anthony Davis took over as the starting center — the Pelicans rank first in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 98.9 points per 100 possessions. During that same time period, the Bulls are last in effective field-goal percentage (45.7 percent). However, the Bulls are first in offensive rebound rate, compared to 28th for the Pelicans, which creates an advantage for the Bulls’ frontcourt.
Although Davis is listed as questionable, he said he’s highly likely to play, which would move Omer Asik and perhaps Terrence Jones back into a reserve role. Davis is engrossed in #NarrativeStreet since he grew up in the Chicago area, and because of the lackluster options on the slate, he’ll be one of the most popular choices at power forward despite the persistent injury concerns. The Bulls have allowed at least 100 points in eight of their past nine games, and Davis’ recent game log has but one blemish on it — the only game he failed to corral at least 15 rebounds. He’s otherwise been solid:
Robin Lopez‘s salary has cratered to $4,100 on FD, and Taj Gibson‘s salary has dipped to $4,800. Recalling the tidbit about the Pelicans’ inability to dominate the glass, both Lopez and Gibson provide cheap alternatives at their position. Their highest correlation is with Rajon Rondo, who coach Fred Hoiberg is relying on to be the general of the second unit. Early returns have been mixed, and the fewer minutes Rondo plays with Lopez and Gibson, the lower their ceilings drop.
Butler is dealing with an illness, and it’s unclear if he’ll play. The game is early enough that his status will be updated prior to lineup lock. If he’s ruled out, Dwyane Wade will instantly become the popular option at shooting guard. However, if Butler does play, he may not be completely healthy, which limits his utility in cash situations. The Pelicans-Bulls’ spread is the closest on the main slate, which means most of the minute projections should be safe.
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Vegas: 214.5 over/under, Spurs -12.5
The Suns and Spurs square off in Mexico City, giving the Suns a slight advantage since they played there on Thursday and have had time to acclimate to the 7,200-foot altitude.
In the two games the Spurs and Suns previously played, the Suns lost by 36 combined points. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in the second game, and both games were close midway through the fourth quarter.
The Spurs’ most exploitable matchup is Chrisstal clear:
The problem with the Spurs this season has been rostering them when favored by at least 10 points, as they are tonight. The triumvirate of Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Pau Gasol have averaged a +0.52 FD Plus/Minus as double-digit favorites while providing 55.2 percent Consistency. Gasol has been the lowest owned on average (8.4 percent), and none of them have provided any Upside in such matchups. Aldridge contributed 44.0 DK points in the last game against the Suns, but that was without Leonard. He’ll be a worthy option in cash games on DK because of the matchup and suboptimal alternatives.
When sizing up the slate, it becomes clear that Leonard is the safest option at his position. Small forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes this season have averaged the fourth-best Plus/Minus when facing the Suns, who are top three in pace and were able to run up the slow Mavericks to 98 possessions — their third-highest mark over the past 15 games — in Thursday’s Mexico City game. Leonard was able to provide 40.4 DK points in his last game in less than 27 minutes, and assuming the Suns can keep the game close for the third straight time, Leonard should play enough minutes to pay back his salary.
Tony Parker has been on point lately:
He remains less than $5,000 on both sites, and in nine games when the Spurs were favored by at least 10 points, he exceeded salary-based expectations seven times and provided a +4.18 FD Plus/Minus. Parker leads all projected starting points guards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and he was downright crafty in the previous meeting against the Suns, making 10-of-16 shots.
Eric Bledsoe took a backseat to Devin Booker and T.J. Warren in the Suns’ two losses to the Spurs this season, and the Spurs were all too complacent to let Parker guard Bledsoe. In the first meeting, Booker was guarded by Leonard in the first half and Green in the second half and still provided 32.5 DraftKings points. That was when Warren was still sidelined, so it’s unclear who Leonard will primarily guard tonight. Booker made 2-of-13 shots in the sequel with Green as his primary cover and 8-of-32 combined. Based on Booker’s torrid run, he’s a solid GPP play, and he’s played at least 35 minutes in four straight games, which elevates his floor.
Philadelphia Sixers at Washington Wizards
Vegas: 208 over/under, Wizards -9.5
Joel Embiid will rest the second night of a back-to-back and John Wall may be limited because of his right pinky injury or possible suspension (however unlikely).
Coach Brett Brown hasn’t named his starting center yet, but he’ll likely choose between Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor, who started against the Wizards in the first meeting this season because Embiid was unavailable. Okafor costs $800 less than Noel on DK and $300 less on FD.
Over the past six games, the Sixers are 5-1 and Okafor has played a total of 10 minutes. Their Defensive Efficiency (99.9) and Pace (101.1) rank in the top-four during that span, but with Embiid resting and Richaun Holmes on a D-League assignment (subject to be recalled), Okafor is expected to play substantial minutes. So who benefits when Embiid doesn’t play? Per the NBA On/Off tool, Noel sees the highest increase in usage rate, Ersan Ilyasova leads the team with a +8.1 FD Plus/Minus, and Okafor and Dario Saric both experience the best FD Plus/Minus differential.
All the Sixers projected for at least 20 minutes have a Bargain Rating of at least 68 percent on FanDuel, so let’s combine how they perform without Embiid with their performance on the road this season to narrow our scope:
Ilyasova and Saric offer the best Consistency, and T.J. McConnell, whose price has caught up to his production, has provided the best Upside for the Sixers on the road this season. McConnell’s correlations are noteworthy and indicative of how you can construct a lineup with him in it. Noel and Ilyasova are both power forward only on FanDuel, and going both precludes you from selecting a higher-priced option. Noel is $1,200 cheaper than Ilyasova, and Robert Covington is one of the few small forwards with a Projected Plus/Minus that is currently positive. Here’s the kicker for both Noel and Ilyasova: Power forwards (according to FD’s positional listing) average the best Plus/Minus against the Wizards this season (+4.83 on 71.4 percent Consistency for those projected to play at least 18 minutes), elevating both in all formats.
Wall costs at least $2,000 more than the next closest point guard, and if you look at his last game, you’ll notice he made 4-of-21 shots. His form was hampered by an injured right pinky, and the plan is to wear a splint to help keep the pinky in place. However, the risk in utilizing Wall is him playing through an injury that continues to hinder his performance. As the point guard with the highest projected ceiling and floor, it’s easy to see why he’s expected to be owned in at least 31 percent of GPPs across both platforms. Toss in his track record this season as a home favorite (image below), and the case for Wall becomes clearer.
Marcin Gortat has been stellar against the Sixers:
It’s his highest scoring average against any team in our database, and most of those games were with Noel opposing him. He’s played at least 30 minutes in 36 of 38 games this season, and if you didn’t already know, the Sixers’ Defensive Rating drops to 109.6 when Okafor is on the court. Gortat ranks second among centers in Opponent Plus/Minus and first in projected ownership in FD GPPs, but he’s very much in the cash-game mix as well.
The shooting guard player pool is bare and unattractive. Enter Bradley Beal, who costs $7,000 on both sites. He and Wall will likely be the chalk at their positions, but Beal offers marginally less risk playing for a team with the second-highest Vegas total on the main slate.
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz
Vegas: 196 over/under, Jazz -11.5
The Magic scored 74 points in the previous game against the Jazz this season, and Evan Fournier (currently questionable) and D.J. Augustin were the only players to score at least 10 points. The Jazz’s Defensive Rating is 5.3 points per 100 possessions better at home, and their +9.9 Net Rating in home games is the fourth-best mark in the NBA. And, by the way, the Jazz rank first overall in Defensive Rating and last in pace.
Fournier is one pivot worth considering in GPPs. In his last four games against the Jazz, he’s averaged 30.28 FD points at minuscule ownership. Since returning from a heel injury, his production has tapered off. Combine that with what is a terrible matchup on the surface, and he’ll likely be faded by a majority of the field. The rest of the Magic players are at play-at-your-own-risk levels.
Rudy Gobert has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of any player on the main slate. His 97 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating will make him the clear cash play at his position, especially at only $200 more than the Wizards’ Gortat. George Hill and Rodney Hood are cheap solutions at their positions, but Hood’s volatility limits his use to GPPs. Both are highly correlated, and in games when the Jazz are implied to score at least 100 points this season — which doesn’t happen often — it becomes apparent which players from the Jazz are worth considering.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
