Saturday brings an 11-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
On FanDuel, Chris Paul is the most expensive PG on the slate by $1,100. He’s playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the first of which was an intense game at Oklahoma City. Tonight, he’ll face a Timberwolves team that has been surprisingly awful against point guards on the year, allowing 2.1 points above salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric) — the second-worst mark in the league. However, that number could be a bit misleading, as Ricky Rubio could return for tonight’s game after practicing with the team yesterday. Paul is clearly the most talented PG in the slate — his 1.31 fantasy points per minute dwarfs that of all other PGs — but given the low pricing of other guards (notably the Boston guards and Jeff Teague back at home), CP3 might be more of a GPP play tonight.
Values
Jeff Teague missed value last night, scoring only 22.2 FD points against the 76ers on the road after dropping 50.9 on them at home two days prior. We discussed Teague’s severe home/road splits on the podcast yesterday, but last night was a little odd in that he shot the ball well — he went 5-of-10 from the field — but he posted a low usage rate and didn’t get to the foul line very often. Nevertheless, he’s back at home tonight — the positive side of his splits — and will face a Boston team with the second-worst defense in the league. This game has a high Vegas total of 216.5, and the Pacers are currently implied for 109.5 points — the second-highest mark in the slate.
If you can figure out the Washington guard rotations, kudos to you. John Wall is out tonight, and in his first game out this season Tomas Satoransky drew the start but scored only 15.8 DraftKings points in 32.4 minutes, Trey Burke played 15.6 minutes, and Marcus Thornton played 17.0. Last night with Bradley Beal out — who is questionable tonight with hamstring tightness — Satoransky played 14.4 minutes, Burke played 22.1 (the highest total of the season), and Thornton oddly played only 20.7 after putting up 31.8 FD points in 34.2 minutes the game prior. Satoransky will likely draw the start tonight for Wall, but Burke has seen a bump in playing time recently and could surprise with elevated minutes. They’re all cheap on both sites, but there’s way too much risk to use these guys in cash games tonight.
Leverage Play
The Boston guards will likely be popular again tonight, as well as someone like Dennis Schroder, who is $6,000 on FD and playing a 76ers team on the second leg of a back-to-back. However, a sneaky player could be Detroit’s Ish Smith, who is $5,100 on DK and $5,400 on FD. He has played 29.9 and 32.3 minutes in his last two games and gets a Nuggets team that has been awful against PGs this season: Per our Trends tool, their +4.5 average FD Plus/Minus allowed to PGs is not only the worst mark in the slate: It is 2.4 points higher than any other team’s. For reference, the Wolves have the second-worst Opponent Plus/Minus at +2.1, which is lower than the difference between the two. Ish hasn’t blown away the league this year — his FD high is 33.1 points two games ago — but he’s played some very tough teams lately, including the Spurs and Clippers in two of his last three. He’s a sneaky contrarian option for tournaments tonight.
Shooting Guard
Studs
At this point, it’s hard to find anything negative to say about James Harden. Sure, he has a tough matchup tonight at home against a Spurs team that ranks seventh in the league defensively. But this is also the Spurs team that Harden played on Wednesday: He had a ridiculous triple-double with 24 points, 15 assists, and 12 rebounds in 40.8 minutes — a 54.9-point outing. He has posted a high 35.5 usage rate and taken 19 shots in each of his last three games, but even that undersells Harden’s importance to this offense: He is averaging 10 free-throw attempts per game and obviously assists aren’t a part of the usage formula. Unfortunately, we don’t have a statistic like “True Usage” yet this season, but I would imagine that it would tell us that Harden is perhaps the most valuable offensive player this season in the NBA. It’s sort of silly to consider paying $11,300 DK or $11,500 FD for a guy against the Spurs, but I wouldn’t hold it against you given Harden’s play this year.
Speaking of ridiculous play: DeMar DeRozan just keeps on keeping on. He has scored 45.1 and 52.8 FD points in his last two games against Hornets and Thunder defenses that both rank in the top-five this year. He’s simply in some sort of zone and still leads the NBA in scoring at 34.1 points per game. Tonight he should be incredibly chalky, as he’ll face a Knicks team that is playing on a back-to-back and ranks as the worst defense in the league, allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions. As of writing this Saturday AM, we don’t have a line for this game yet, but I would imagine that it would be pretty generous on the Toronto side. DeRozan faces Courtney Lee, who has allowed 3.1 DK points above salary-based expectations to opposing players in the past year. This could be ugly.
Value
Miami’s Josh Richardson has played only two games this year, and before last game the Sun Sentinel in Miami said that he was “still working his way back into game shape.” That’s understandable, and he played just 25 minutes in his first game against the Thunder. However, in his second game he got bumped up to 28.4 minutes, which definitely makes him interesting at only $3,600 on FD, where he holds a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Tonight he has a tough matchup against a Utah team that currently ranks sixth defensively on the year, but Heat starting PG Goran Dragic is currently doubtful for tonight, which should lead to increased usage for both Richardson and backup PG Tyler Johnson. They may not be viable in cash games given the matchup, but they certainly provide upside at a low cost point for tournaments tonight.
Leverage Play
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the quintessence of a ‘leverage play’ today: He is $9,400 on FD ($400 more than DeRozan), he’s missed value in his last two games (33.5 and 27.4 FD points against soft Pelicans and Mavs defenses), and he’s facing a Memphis defense that ranks 11th defensively on the year (compared to 30th for DeRozan’s opponent). Everything screams DeRozan, which is exactly why Giannis is so intriguing in tournaments. His minutes were oddly down for a couple games recently but he bumped back up to 34.5 against the Pelicans last game. The Bucks are actually 2.5-point favorites at home tonight, which is slightly odd considering that the Bucks just lost to the Pelicans and Mavs and the Grizzlies haven’t played since Tuesday and are expecting Mike Conley back. Regardless, Giannis should see low ownership given his odd price point between Harden and DeRozan.
Small Forward
Stud
Kawhi Leonard struggled last night against the Pistons, scoring only 29.3 FD points in 37.2 minutes of action. However, tonight he gets a Rockets team that currently ranks as the sixth-worst defense in the league. He faced them this past Wednesday and put up 47.9 points in 38.9 minutes on 34 real points. He shot the ball a season-high 26 times. He leads all SFs in the slate with 1.15 fantasy points per minute and 31.17 PER. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he should play opposite Trevor Ariza, who hasn’t been good defensively in some time now: He has allowed opponents to score 3.2 DK points over salary-based expectations in the past year. This game is projected to be close — the Spurs are one-point road favorites — and Kawhi should definitely be heavily involved.
Value
CJ Miles has played 30-plus minutes in his last two games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game since Game 1 of the season, when he played only 12.6 minutes against the Mavericks. He’s been playing great basketball, and despite averaging 17.2 points and 3.5 rebounds per game over his last six games he’s still only $5,100 DK and a silly $4,400 FD. He has a dream matchup tonight facing a Boston team that has been terrible defensively, allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions on the season — the second-worst mark in the league. The Pacers are currently implied for 109.5 points — the second-highest mark in the slate — and Miles should start and play around that 30-minute mark again.
Leverage Play
After coming back earlier than expected after breaking his finger in the preseason, Gordon Hayward has been excellent to start the year.
He hasn’t seen abbreviated minutes either: He’s played 39.4, 36.4, and 30.2 in his last three — games in which he scored 45.0, 43.4, and 34.9 FD points. He has scored at least 20 real points in every game this season and is also putting up a ton of peripheral stats, as shown by his 10 rebounds and eight assists last night against the Orlando Magic. Tonight he will face the Miami Heat, who are fifth in the league defensively this year but merely average against SFs: Per our Trends tool, they’ve allowed 0.3 points above salary-based expectations to SFs on the year. Hayward’s price is still low at $7,400 on FD, and he is an excellent play yet again.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis gets the Lakers tonight, who are 15th defensively on the year and allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions. Further, Davis has historically played well against the Lakers: He’s dropped 50-plus FD points in 60 percent of his games against them over the past three years, per our Trends tool. This season, the Lakers have actually been pretty stout against opposing PFs, holding them on average to 2.6 FD points below salary-based expectations. That said, two of the best PFs they’ve faced — Draymond Green and Derrick Favors — both exceeded expectations. The Pelicans are one-point home favorites tonight and implied to score a nice 108 points — the fourth-highest mark in the slate. Davis is expensive at $11,500 DK and $11,600 FD, but he’s averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute on the year and has a ceiling that only Harden can match in this slate.
Value
Derrick Favors has really benefited from the absence of George Hill in the lineup and the addition of Hayward, as he has easily exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games. He’s played 36.5 and 35.0 minutes in his last two and is still only $5,900 for some reason on FD, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends. We said on the NBA Flex pod yesterday that you don’t really have to overthink Favors at $5,900, and that’s still true tonight. Despite boasting a top-five defense this year, the Heat have actually been very generous to opposing PFs: Per our Trends tool, PFs have scored 2.4 points above salary-based expectations against them this year — the second-best mark in the league behind the 76ers’. Again, you don’t have to overthink this.
Leverage Play
Markieff Morris has been up-and-down lately:
And I can understand if you still have a bitter taste in your mouth after he let the DFS community down by posting 12.7 and 17.8-point FD games against the terrible defenses of the Celtics and Rockets. That said, he bounced back last night, scoring 30.5 FD points in 33.2 minutes in a tough matchup against the Cavs. Further, per our NBA On/Off tool, he saw the biggest bump in the first game without Wall this year:
In that game, he saw a massive usage bump of 6.8 percentage points and outscored his salary-based expectations by 9.5 points on DK. While everyone tries to guess who out of Satoransky, Burke, and Thornton will see a bump, take advantage and roster Markieff in tournaments instead.
Also, be sure to check out Jay Persson’s video on how to use our NBA On/Off tool.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond dropped 20 points and 17 rebounds on the road against the Spurs last game and still scored only 38.4 FD points because he racked up a season-high six turnovers. Thankfully, he gets an easier matchup tonight against a Nuggets team that currently ranks 21st defensively this year, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. There is a bit of concern regarding his rebound totals, however: He’s dominated the glass this year — he ranks second in the league with 14.6 rebounds per game — but the Nuggets currently lead the NBA with a 54.3 rebound rate. Drummond certainly has the talent to overcome that, but it does introduce some risk and perhaps make him more suited to guaranteed prize pools than cash games. That said, he’s down to $7,500 on DK and is less expensive than eligible centers in Davis, Hassan Whiteside, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Dwight Howard. He has just as high of a ceiling as any of those players and he’s the cheapest one. That’s intriguing for tournaments.
Value
Al Horford still hasn’t returned to action — he’s technically questionable for tonight — and last night Brad Stevens started Kelly Olynyk in the PF spot over Tyler Zeller. Olynyk responded with 30.9 FD points in 29.9 minutes of action. Assuming that Horford can’t go again tonight, Olynyk will likely get the start again at only $3,500 FD and will face a Pacers team that currently ranks third-worst in the league, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions. He’ll match up individually with Thaddeus Young, who has allowed a poor 4.4 DK points over salary-based expectations to opposing PFs in the past year. At Olynyk’s low price point, he needs only 13.23 FD points to hit value. If he starts and plays close to 30 minutes again in this good matchup, that seems like a slam dunk (awful pun FTW!).
Leverage Play
Most of the elite centers tonight face each other, which lowers their upside in the tough matchups. One guy in that range with a nice matchup is Marc Gasol, who will face a Bucks team that has allowed 102.7 points per 100 possessions on the year and is coming off brutal losses to the Pelicans and Mavericks. Gasol will start opposite Miles Plumlee, who has been one of the most generous players in terms of allowing fantasy points to opposing centers over the past year: Per our Matchups tool, he has allowed a hefty +5.4 Plus/Minus in that time frame. Gasol has been off since Tuesday and should play a solid amount of minutes in what Vegas projects to be a close game.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
