The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has seen his usage rate slowly creep up this season. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 32 percent in each of his last three contests, peaking at 34.7 percent in his last game. While that’s still a far cry from what he was doing last season, that number would put him comfortably in the top-five in the NBA in that category. His assist and rebound rates are also similar to his marks from last year, resulting in averages of 12.0 assists and 9.2 rebounds per game so far this season. He may not be last year’s version exactly, but he’s still a dominant fantasy basketball player.
He is playing on the road in the second leg of a back-to-back today against the Chicago Bulls, who are currently playing at the second-slowest pace in the league. That results in a pace differential (paceD) of -2.8 for Westbrook, who has historically been dreadful in comparable pace-down, back-to-back situations:
There’s still plenty of reason to be optimistic for Westbrook this season, but there will be better spots.
Damian Lillard gets a rematch with the same Suns team he throttled for 50.75 DraftKings points on opening night, yet his salary in today’s contest is $1,600 cheaper than it was in the previous matchup. The Blazers’ current implied team total of 114.75 points is the top mark on the day by a significant margin, and the Suns may be without top defender Eric Bledsoe, who is currently doing everything possible to force his way out of Phoenix. The Suns have played at the third-fastest pace so far this season and have been the fifth-worst team in terms of defensive efficiency.
Value
Patrick Beverley has played an average of 38 minutes over his last two starts and remains affordable at $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s seen a nice bump in usage and production with Milos Teodosic off the court this season, averaging roughly 42 fantasy points on DraftKings per 36 minutes:
Fast Break
Mike Conley is in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a paceD of +7.8. He’s historically been awesome in comparable pace-up situations:
Lonzo Ball offers one of the best floors at the PG position thanks to his ability to pile up peripheral statistics, but he has a brutal matchup against the Utah Jazz. That said, DraftKings has lowered his salary by $500 for this matchup, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. Players with comparable salaries and Bargain Ratings have historically been able to find success against the Jazz:
Goran Dragic has one of the best individual matchups of the day at the PG position. He gets to take on Kyrie Irving, who finished 68th among 78 qualifiers at PG in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden posted his first triple-double of the season last night against the Charlotte Hornets, resulting in a season-high 62.0 fantasy points on DraftKings. On today’s slate, he presents an interesting dilemma. On one hand, Harden is playing on the road in the second leg of a back-to-back, which is a situation he has not handled well over the last two seasons:
This is also an extreme pace-down spot for the Rockets; they are currently implied for just 101.5 points, which is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the day. To put that in perspective, the Rockets were implied for less than 102 points only once all of last season. The resulting paceD of -7.8 for the Houston players is the worst mark on the slate.
That said, Harden has been priced down on DraftKings to an almost-laughable $10,600 for this contest, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. Harden has actually increased his usage rate from last year with Chris Paul off the court so far this season and averaged over 55 fantasy points per game last season against the Memphis Grizzlies. Even in a brutal spot, Harden offers one of the highest ceilings and safest floors on DraftKings at his current price tag.
Value
Tyreke Evans has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.74 on FanDuel over his last two contests despite playing an average of just 24 minutes a night. He currently ranks third on the Grizzlies in usage, and much of the offense flows through him when he’s on the court. He should benefit from the pace-up situation against the Rockets today.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum has made a living feasting on bad teams over the past two seasons:
Despite their 2-3 record, the Suns look like they’re going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year.
Eric Gordon has shot the basketball a lot recently. A whole lot. He’s shot at least 15 3-pointers in each of his last three games and should continue to get a lot of burn with the injuries to Paul and Trevor Ariza. His salary has risen rapidly, but he still may be underpriced given his usage rate of 32.2 percent this season.
Devin Booker has averaged a usage rate of just under 30 percent and 39 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings with Bledsoe off the court this season:
That’s in line with his average of 38.42 fantasy points in 13 games without Bledsoe last season, and he has an excellent individual matchup today against McCollum, who posted a DRPM of -1.87 last season. With a current ownership projection of just five to eight percent, he’s really intriguing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
It looks like the run of LeBron James at PG may be coming to an end. Derrick Rose is currently questionable for today’s contest, and if he plays it will likely put a significant dent in LeBron’s fantasy stock:
He’s averaged just 45 DraftKings points per 36 minutes while sharing the court with Rose, and that average would make him a bit of a disappointment at his current $10,700 salary. He still offers one of the safest floors in fantasy – his 88 percent Consistency Rating is one of the top marks in the league – but he’s likely a bit overpriced if the Cavs are at full strength.
Values
Robert Covington has not really seen his role diminished by the addition of Ben Simmons this season. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of the last two games and is currently shooting 48 percent from 3-point range on seven attempts per game. If he’s going to continue to see that much court time, he’s a value at his current $5,900 salary:
P.J. Tucker played over 37 minutes last night in relief of Ariza and has the potential to hit that threshold again tonight against the Grizzlies. At just $4,000 on DraftKings and $4,600 on FanDuel, he’s very affordable.
Fast Break
Danilo Gallinari continues to play heavy minutes for the Clippers, seeing at least 38 in each of the last two games. He hasn’t exactly scored a ton of fantasy points, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.11 on FanDuel for the year, but he’s shot just 31.4 percent from the field. In the one contest he managed to actually shoot the ball at a competent rate, he scored 32.7 fantasy points on FanDuel in a brutal matchup with the Jazz. If you look up “positive regression” in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Gallinari.
Paul George has sacrificed some off his offensive game since joining the Thunder but has made up for it by contributing in virtually every category. He’s returned value in four of five games so far and is currently priced at his lowest salary of the year on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Power Forward
Studs
If Anthony Davis is able to suit up today, he looks like one of the top values on the slate on DraftKings at just $10,500. Even with DeMarcus Cousins dominating the usage for the Pelicans this season – his usage of 36.7 percent is the top mark in the entire league – Davis has still managed to average 51.42 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings while sharing the court with him. Of course, Davis also sees a handful of minutes each game without Cousins, and that’s when he truly dominates:
He scored at least 57 DraftKings points in each game this season prior to getting injured and could possibly see reduced ownership after burning DFS players. Cleveland has been the eighth-worst team this season in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 107 points ranks fourth on the slate.
Blake Griffin has been a strong fantasy producer this season, averaging over 45 fantasy points per game on FanDuel, but he’s yet to really take the leap that most people were anticipating from him without Paul. His current usage rate of 29.1 percent and assist rate of 22.1 percent are in line with his averages from the past few seasons, so it’s not like the offense is suddenly flowing through him at a significantly higher pace. That said, he should have an exploitable individual matchup today against Tobias Harris, who ranked 60th among 77 qualifiers at PF in DRPM last season.
Value
Marquese Chriss is currently questionable after spraining his ankle on Wednesday, but he appears to be in one of the top spots of the day if he’s able to suit up. He’s currently priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel and has been playing more minutes under new head coach Jay Triano. The Suns are currently implied for 104.25 points against the Portland Trail Blazers, who allowed the highest Plus/Minus to PFs on FanDuel last season:
Fast Break
The Ryan Anderson home/road splits came through again yesterday, with Anderson shooting 40 percent from 3-point range on his way to a +16.94 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He should continue to play heavy minutes given the injury to Ariza.
Julius Randle has slowly started to play more minutes for the Lakers and has scored at least 30 fantasy points on FanDuel in back-to-back contests. He does have a matchup with the Jazz today, but at just $4,600 he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins steamrolled his old team on Thursday, putting up over 80 fantasy points on DraftKings in almost 44 minutes of court time. That resulted in his salary spiking to roughly $12,000 on both sites, which would make him very tough to roster if Davis were to play. Of course, that always increases his appeal in GPPs since his ownership will likely fall below the rest of the studs on today’s slate. He was still leading the league in usage prior to Davis getting hurt, so there’s still a lot of upside here.
Values
If Chriss can’t go, look for Alex Len to get some extra run today between the PF and C positions. He has historically averaged over a fantasy point per minute and doesn’t need many minutes to smash value at his current $4,300 salary on FanDuel.
Jusuf Nurkic picked up his fifth foul early in the third quarter of his last game, which ultimately limited him to just 27 minutes. He looked effective in that game, however, and now gets an excellent matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond has scored at least 40 fantasy points on DraftKings in each of his last three games, yet his salary has actually decreased over that time frame. He does have a tough individual matchup today against DeAndre Jordan, who ranked seventh among Cs in DRPM last season, but Drummond has historically done quite well in this matchup:
It’s never easy to roster Joel Embiid given his lack of minutes, but his average of 1.53 fantasy points per minute trails only Westbrook’s, Harden’s, and Cousins’ on today’s slate. That kind of per-minute productivity has resulted in a ridiculous 94 percent Consistency Rating over the past year. He has a solid matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks, who have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league both this year and last.
Finally, Rudy Gobert has a matchup with a Lakers team he has absolutely dominated over the past two seasons:
His salary is down $900 from the start of the season on DraftKings, where his $7,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
