The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics (-5) – 196.5 total
On a normal slate, this game would not be very appealing for DFS purposes. Both of these teams played at a slow pace during the regular season, and the first six games of this series have played even slower. The resulting over/under of 196.5 is 30 points lower than the over/under for the late game on today’s slate.
The Bucks have the lowest implied team total of the day at 95.5 points, but they could still be a really intriguing team to target on DraftKings. Their “big three” of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe all have Bargain Ratings of at least 97%:
Let’s start with Giannis. No one on today’s slate is projected to play more minutes than his 42.8, and he’s averaged 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark on DraftKings, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and Bargain Ratings have historically been excellent values:
Middleton has been extremely efficient in the playoffs, shooting 59.6% from the field and 62.5% from 3-point range, but he’s unfortunately seen a slight decrease in volume. That could be due to being matched up primarily with Jaylen Brown, who has been one of the best perimeter defenders in league in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). He’s going to need to stay hot with the jumper in order to hit value at his current salary.
Bledsoe has the best individual matchup of the trio, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.58 on DraftKings. That said, he’s returned value in just two of six games in this series, and he’s played far fewer minutes than both Giannis and Middleton. His salary has decreased by $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month, however, which could make him an intriguing buy low option.
John Henson is considered unlikely to play today, which could solidify minutes for Jabari Parker. He played just 25.5 total minutes in the first two games, but he’s played at least 25 in each of the past four. He’s averaged a solid 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
It’s going to be tough to find low-owned players with upside on a two-game slate, but Thon Maker could fit that description. He exploded for 38.0 FanDuel points in game 3 of this series but has been relatively quiet since then. He’s projected for 25.0 minutes in our NBA Models, so he should have the opportunity to make some plays.
The Celtics are a relatively balanced team, and that has only become truer with the return of Marcus Smart. Only Greg Monroe has posted a usage rate higher than 26%, and he’s played just eight total minutes over the past three games. That makes them a pretty tough team to peg for DFS purposes.
One player who stands out on DraftKings is Al Horford, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%. He has destroyed the Bucks over nine total meetings this season:
He has been guarded primarily by Giannis recently due to the injury to Henson, and the Celtics would be smart to lean on that matchup a little heavier in Game 7. Horford has outscored his season average by +7.8 points per 100 possessions in that matchup, shooting 17-for-29 from the field and adding an additional 15 points from the free throw line. Horford also has substantial rebound upside against the Bucks, who posted the second-worst rebound rate in the league during the regular season.
Jaylen Brown has arguably been the Celtics’ best player during the postseason, and he’s leading the team with an average of 38.0 minutes per game. He’s played at least that many minutes in each of his past three games, which gives him significant upside at just $6,600 on FanDuel.
Jayson Tatum posted a usage rate of 31.5% in Game 6 and has averaged a respectable 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has the best individual matchup among the Celtics’ perimeter players, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.53.
The rest of the Celtics have some question marks but are worth consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Terry Rozier has seen a sizable salary decrease on both FanDuel and DraftKings since the start of the playoffs but has shown the ability to put up a big game in the past. Marcus Morris is second on the team in usage rate during the postseason, but he’s played 26.5 minutes or less in four straight games. Marcus Smart could be the most intriguing role player for the Celtics at his current salary. He’s shot just 4-for-16 since returning from injury in Game 5, but he can contribute in every category across the board.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (-9) – 226.5 total
The Pelicans thoroughly dominated the Blazers in round 1 of the playoffs, but taking on the Warriors is an entirely different animal. They’re currently nine-point underdogs against the defending champs, and that’s with Steph Curry’s status up in the air. That said, the Pels play a tight rotation – four players are currently projected for at least 37.5 minutes on today’s slate – which makes them an appealing target for DFS purposes.
Their offense starts with Anthony Davis, who averaged 33.0 points per game on 57.6% shooting in round 1. He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.41 against the Warriors, whom he absolutely torched during the regular season:
He spent most of his time in those matchups being guarded by Draymond Green, who actually did a decent job of limiting him individually. That said, the Pelicans averaged an additional +7.8 points per 100 possessions as a team in that matchup, so the rest of their offense could be in great shape if the Warriors limit Green to focusing solely on Davis.
As good as Davis has been recently, Nikola Mirotic has been the better value. He’s been insanely good over his past 10 games on DraftKings:
He could be extremely important in this series as well. As stated in The Action Network’s series preview, the Pels’ current starting unit torched the Warriors over 16 minutes during the regular season, averaging 151.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s obviously not sustainable, but it goes to show that these guys could give the Warriors trouble.
Jrue Holiday has seen a nice bump in usage during the postseason, averaging a usage rate of 30.3% through his first four games. That said, his salary has actually decreased by $400 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He seems like one of the safest options on the slate at his current salary, evidenced by a Consistency Rating of 100% over his past 11 games.
It’s good to see that playoff Rajon Rondo is alive and well. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his four games against the Blazers, which is not surprising considering how many minutes he played. He’s averaged 1.06 fantasy points per minute on the season and 1.15 over the past month.
The Warriors are currently implied for 116.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate by nine points. The Pelicans have been one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups for the majority of the season, although they were slightly better in the first round against the Blazers.
The big question with the Warriors is when will Steph Curry make his return to the lineup? He’s questionable for today’s slate, and if he’s active, that will obviously have huge repercussions for the rest of the lineup. Andre Iguodala has entered the starting lineup during the playoffs, but he’ll likely revert to the bench if Curry is active. He’s failed to return value in four of his past five games, so he’ll be tough to trust in that situation.
Kevin Durant has been the biggest beneficiary of Curry’s absence this season, averaging more than 49 DraftKings points per game:
He’s been priced down to just $9,700 on DraftKings for today’s matchup, which would make him arguably the top value of the day among the high-priced studs if Curry is inactive. His matchup with the Pelicans results in an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.27.
Draymond Green has had a nice start to his playoffs, exceeding salary-based expectations in four of five games. That includes three straight to end the series vs the Spurs, and he should play a ton of minutes in this series to try to serve as the Davis-stopper.
Klay Thompson is a boom-or-bust option for the Warriors, albeit one who has seen some additional minutes in the playoffs. His problem is that he offers very little in the peripheral categories, so he’ll need to have a big scoring night to be a value for DFS.
Finally, David West could be worth some consideration off the bench. He’s a high-usage, high-impact player, averaging 1.19 DraftKings points per minute for the season. He won’t play many minutes, but he has the potential to crush his current $3,300 salary on DraftKings. That’s incredibly important in playoff DFS since it can allow you to squeeze in a few studs.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Nikola Mirotic
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle – USA TODAY Sports
