The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a six-game main slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook is the highest-priced option on FanDuel by $1,900, and he likely would’ve been the chalk with Paul George out. George is officially questionable for today’s game, but he did report that he had a good day of rehab on Sunday and he should be back. In the two games without George, Westbrook boosted his usage rate to 38.3 percent:
Westbrook’s 31.1 percent usage with PG on the floor this year is a drop, but Russ has been much more efficient with him on the floor, as evidenced by his superior 49.0 percent true shooting (which, admittedly, still isn’t great) and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. Russ is probably overpriced with PG back, but he still owns a top-three projected ceiling and could have reduced ownership.
On DraftKings, the stud people will want is likely Chris Paul, who has crushed in his past two games, scoring 43.3 and 58.3 fantasy points against the Blazers and Jazz — two top-seven defenses. He’s gone for 34.6 and 36.4 minutes in those affairs, which is encouraging given his early-season health issues. He has a brilliant matchup against the Pelicans (+4.90 Opponent Plus/Minus, the highest among PGs), although he does come with a blowout risk (11.5-point spread). That may not be an issue, however: Over the past two seasons, Paul has provided nice value in games with spreads between -10 and -15:
Really, this comes down to his price. Paul is much too cheap on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends.
Value
David Nwaba isn’t a household name, but he’s been an awesome fantasy asset of late, averaging a +6.36 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games:
He’s played more than 30 minutes over the past two games and somehow remains just $3,800 on DraftKings, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The biggest issue is that he’s facing the Celtics, who still rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing only 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Still, Nwaba is too cheap given his current production. He has shown the ability to rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways, grabbing 11 rebounds and blocking five shots across his past two games.
Update: Boston’s Kyrie Irving has been ruled out. Here’s our NBA News blurb on Kyrie and potential value option Marcus Smart.
Fast Break
Nwaba’s teammate, Kris Dunn, is also quite the bargain on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. These guys are obviously priced down due to the matchup, but it could be too much a discount. Dunn has gone for 43.8 and 52.5 fantasy points over his past two games, and his ability to rack up defensive statistics like Nwaba — Dunn has six steals during that same time frame — helps his floor even in the tough matchup. Taking Chicago guys against a defensive juggernaut like the Celtics is risky, but the cheap prices make that less of a concern.
Kyle Lowry has been incredibly consistent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games. He has a nice matchup against a Clippers squad that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and could welcome back the defensively-challenged Milos Teodosic.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is $3,000 more expensive than any other SG today on FanDuel, and he’s coming off a magical game against the Trail Blazers in which he went for 48 real points on a 45.3 percent usage rate. Overall, this year Harden has seen a slight dip in production with CP3 on the floor:
- With CP3: 34.1% usage rate, 25.0% assist rate, 1.40 DraftKings points per minute
- Without CP3: 36.9% usage rate, 51.4% assist rate, 1.48 DraftKings points per minute
With that said, Harden has been his usual self the past three games, posting a usage rate of 38.6 percent and 1.52 fantasy points per minute. It’s possible these guys are figuring out how to play with each other, and both are in play tonight in the slate’s highest-total game. The Rockets’ implied total of 120 leads the slate by nearly seven points.
Value
Harden is made more valuable in this slate because of how weak the SG position is, especially when it comes to value plays. Charlotte has two SGs questionable in Nicolas Batum (he played Saturday) and Jeremy Lamb (was out Saturday), although the situation may not open up any value. The Hornets were awful shorthanded in their last game — they were also without Frank Kaminsky — and they ended up getting rolled by the Lakers. Dwight Howard was the only player to exceed 30 minutes, and the Hornets are currently implied for just 99.5 points against the defensive-minded Thunder.
Update: Batum has been ruled out; Lamb will play.
Thus, the slate might require you to pay up for a guy like Jrue Holiday, who is still reasonably priced at $6,800 on FanDuel. He’s averaged a +5.23 Plus/Minus and 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, and he had perhaps his best game of this season his last time out, posting 52.3 FanDuel points in over 40 minutes. Holiday should play massive minutes again, especially if the Pelicans want to keep this game close: They’re currently 11.5-point dogs against the Rockets.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans continue to crush without Mike Conley this season. He’s coming off a 53.1-point FanDuel performance in 40.4 minutes, and he could have to play heavy minutes again tonight as one-point home favorites against the Miami Heat. He’s priced up at $7,700, but he’s averaging a robust 1.11 FanDuel points per minute.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant is $3,900 more expensive than any other SF today, and he’s absolutely destroyed in his past two games sans Stephen Curry:
In the three total games without Steph this season, Durant has averaged a stupid 1.66 DraftKings points per minute mark on 35.6 percent usage. He will certainly be needed to keep this offense afloat with Steph: With both of them off the court this year, the Warriors have averaged 1.042 points per possession — a below-average mark. With those guys out and Draymond Green on the floor — which could be a proxy for starters on versus the Warriors — they’ve scored 0.995 points per possession. That would rate third-worst in the league. Load up Durant again today.
Value
Danilo Gallinari played 36.0 minutes in his last game, scoring 33.8 DraftKings points on 31.9 percent usage and 25 real points. That’s nice production for a guy priced at only $5,300, especially if he’s going to play heavy minutes moving forward. We have him projected for around 35 tonight against the Raptors. That’s not a great matchup — the Raps own a top-10 defense on the season — but it also may not matter given his price point. He currently owns the top Projected Plus/Minus mark (+7.74) in the entire slate.
Fast Break
Paul George was brutal in his past two games before sitting out with a right calf contusion, scoring only 26.1 and 20.6 FanDuel points in 39.5 and 33.2 minutes. Those were incredibly tough matchups against the Jazz and Spurs, and we’ve seen his ceiling; he posted 61.3 FanDuel points in the game prior to those duds. There aren’t many SFs worth rostering today — only three in Durant, PG, and Gallo are projected for a usage rate of 21 percent or higher — which means Durant and Gallo should be the mega chalk. George as a leverage play isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Power Forward
Stud
The two options priced above $7,100 on FanDuel are Draymond Green ($8,500) and Anthony Davis ($10,600). Green is currently probable with a sore right shoulder, while Brow is questionable with a groin injury. Davis has been awful of late, averaging a -7.85 Plus/Minus and 40 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, whereas Draymond has been a great fantasy asset without Curry, going for 50-plus fantasy points in each of his past two games. He has played 38-plus minutes during that time frame, and he somehow went for 53.7 FanDuel points vs. Detroit, despite scoring just two real points:
Green isn’t having a great offensive season, but he’s still a defensive beast, and FanDuel is awarding a ton of points for those categories this year. Unfortunately he’s priced up there, where his $8,500 salary comes with a 1 percent Bargain Rating. Still, he owns a position-high +2.44 Projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Serge Ibaka has been on a tear:
It’s hard to argue against a 90 percent Consistency Rating, and Ibaka should be a solid bet to hit value again today against a Clippers squad that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions. He owns the position’s highest Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel (+5.78) and he’s still cheap there: His $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Fast Break
Carmelo Anthony has a nice Opponent Plus/Minus mark of +3.95 on FanDuel, and he owns the position’s third-highest projected ceiling. He exceeded salary-based expectations by 13.4 points in his last game, and he’s played more than 36 minutes in each of his past two. But be sure to monitor the injury situation in OKC: He’s taken a 3.7 percent usage hit when sharing the court with Westbrook and George this season.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins has been unstoppable this season in the four games without Brow:
His mark of 1.77 DraftKings points per minute is astounding and even bests Durant’s mark without Steph. He’s posted a 39.2 percent usage rate in those games, and he will have to smash on Monday if the Pelicans want to keep up with the full strength Rockets. Boogie is much cheaper on DraftKings tonight, where his $10,700 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and a slate-high 13 Pro Trends. He’s the toughest fade if Brow is ruled out.
Value
There isn’t much value at the position today; it’s definitely a slate to pay up for a stud center. Aron Baynes is perhaps an option; he scored 23.6 FanDuel points in 26.4 minutes of action last game against the Pistons. He should continue to start with Marcus Morris out, and he has a nice matchup today against a Chicago team that ranks bottom-10 in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate. If he gets 25-plus minutes again, that’ll play at just $3,500, although you will have to deal with opportunity cost there. You can roster just one center on FanDuel, which means a Baynes roster automatically includes a fade of all the high-priced studs. It’s not pretty out there.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol played 42.2 minutes in his last game, and he should have to continue to run things with Evans with Conley out. He has a nice matchup against the Heat (+3.33 Opponent Plus/Minus), and he’s projected for low 13-16 percent ownership on DraftKings.
Dwight Howard has put on some vintage performances recently, most notably going for 67.5 DraftKings points two games ago against the Chicago Bulls. He has a tougher matchup tonight against the Thunder, although his $7,500 salary does come with a nice 99 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
