The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday presents a two-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. Four players priced above $6,000 on FanDuel possess Bargain Ratings of zero percent, and only two of the 14 most-expensive players offer Bargain Ratings greater than 45 percent. Conversely, a third of the players in the DraftKings player pool provide Bargain Ratings of at least 90 percent. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Kyrie Irving and Kyle Lowry are projected to guard each other (per the Matchups page), and both converted half their shots when the other was on the court during the regular season. Irving is cheaper on DraftKings, where both provide a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent, and Lowry is cheaper on FanDuel.
Irving’s 35.3 percent usage rate during the first round ranked third among rotation players, but he recorded a cumulative -7.85 DraftKings Plus/Minus during the series. He converted 7-of-32 3-pointers, a deviation from his season accuracy of 40.1 percent. He was battling knee tendonitis, which may have impacted his mobility and shot selection.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
In six games against the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, Lowry averaged a team-best 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, but he played less than 34 minutes in four of the six games due to blowouts. Lowry was limited to 0.78 DraftKings points per minute during the first round of this postseason, and he may have been playing through a lingering wrist issue after undergoing surgery in February.
Lowry: DFS Scouting Report
Irving may be the popular option at point guard on DraftKings due to his lower salary and perceived high ceiling, but he does bring risk being so scoring-dependent. Lowry is a prime pivot play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) since his ownership may pale in comparison to Irving’s, and he can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways. Lowry also averaged four more minutes per game during the first round than Irving. (Pro Subscribers can track ownership shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard.)
Value
Tony Parker became the Spurs’ secondary offensive option in the first round, and if that’s duplicated in the second round, he’ll require cash-game consideration as the cheapest projected starting point guard on the slate at $5,000 on FanDuel. In 34 home games this season, Parker averaged 20.07 FanDuel points on 70.6 percent Consistency.
Fast Break
Deron Williams: He costs less than $3,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and in the final three games of the first round, he produced double-digit FanDuel points.
Shooting Guards
Stud
James Harden is one of five Rockets to average a positive Plus/Minus against the Spurs this year, and his average production is 8.1 points better than today’s DraftKings salary-implied point total:
Harden costs the same as LeBron James on FanDuel, which may potentially reduce Harden’s ownership. His DraftKings salary stands at $10,900, and when the Rockets have been implied to score less than 108 points on the road this season, Harden’s averaged 57.08 DraftKings points. When he’s faced the top five teams in defensive efficiency on the road during the regular season — a group that includes the Spurs — Harden’s recorded more than 60 DraftKings points on five of seven occasions:
All that said, it’s unclear if he’s still dealing with an ankle injury suffered during the first round.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Eric Gordon is cheaper than Lou Williams on DraftKings; the opposite is true on FanDuel. Gordon didn’t record less than 20 DraftKings points in any of his four games against the Spurs this season, and in the game after Williams was acquired, Gordon played more minutes than Williams: 34 to 19. That may not be entirely indicative of the minute distribution in this game or series, but it’s a baseline worth considering. Gordon averaged five more minutes per game than Williams in the first round, but Williams’ usage rate was 7.6 percent higher than Gordon’s.
Danny Green averaged 30.4 minutes per game against the Rockets during the regular season, a mark he didn’t meet during any game in the first round. His minutes will likely match or come close to Harden’s, and barring foul trouble, Green may be the cheapest shooting guard on track for 30 minutes on this slate. He averaged just 1.8 fouls per game against the Rockets this year, for reference. When the Spurs have been implied to score at least 107 points at home, Green has averaged a team-best +3.49 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan: In three games against the Cavs this season, DeRozan averaged a +9.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but in six games against the Cavs last postseason, DeRozan averaged 32.79 DraftKings points on 33.3 percent Consistency. Many of the games were decided by at least 20 points, and DeRozan recorded a 30.6 percent free throw rate while averaging less than seven free throw attempts per game for the first time since the 2012-13 season. DeRozan costs $4,300 less than Harden on FanDuel, and as one of the three shooting guards with an above-average projected usage rate, DeRozan may qualify as a solid cash alternative to Harden.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Small Forwards
Studs
LeBron James made 62.2 percent of his shots in six games against the Raptors during last year’s postseason, and 57.1 percent of his attempts occurred inside the restricted area. The Cavs haven’t played since April 23rd, giving James a week off to recover after averaging 43.7 minutes per game in the first round. James has recorded at least 54 DraftKings points in 12 of the last 14 games, and he’s the only player on the slate with 100 percent Consistency over the last month on DraftKings.
The Cavs are presently favored by 6.5 points (per the Vegas dashboard), and when the Cavs faced the Raptors in the playoffs last year, they won the first two games at home by 31 and 19 points. James played fewer than 34 minutes in both games. That said, the Cavs defense has been so bad this year that no lead is safe; James may wind up playing closer to 40 minutes.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Kawhi Leonard costs $1,800 less than James on FanDuel and $1,200 less on DraftKings. He and James ranked in the top-four in actual points per game during Round 1. In four games against the Rockets this season, Leonard averaged 38.0 minutes per game but exceeded 51 DraftKings points only twice.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
The small forward position faces a dramatic drop-off in average postseason production on FanDuel after James and Leonard. The two appear to be the obvious pairing on FanDuel in cash games, which forces salary circumvention at the other positions and increases the likelihood of similar lineups.
Value?
Jonathon Simmons costs $1,500 on FanDuel, and he may get some minutes to help defend Harden. It’s too early in the series to rely on Simmons in cash games, but rostering him will open up significant salary to spend elsewhere.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: His playing time will likely match Leonard’s, and in four regular season games against the Spurs, Ariza averaged a +7.73 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency. Ariza was occasionally guarded by LaMarcus Aldridge during the regular season, allowing the Rockets small forward a mismatch on offense. Despite averaging 38.0 minutes per game in the first round, Ariza averaged 0.42 DraftKings points per minute and an 8.8 percent usage rate. His subpar effort as one of three small forwards projected to play at least 25 minutes (per the Player Models) is another indication that James-Leonard could be the prevailing small forward combination on FanDuel.
Power Forwards
Stud
Kevin Love led the Cavs in DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Raptors this season, although all three games occurred before Serge Ibaka joined the Raptors:
Love recorded a double-double in each regular season meeting, but he’s been a distant third option in the Cavs’ offense during the postseason. He recorded a 25.8 percent usage rate during the first quarter in the first round, but that mark dipped to average or below-average in each of the subsequent quarters. He ranks 96th among all players in second-half usage rate this postseason at 17.2 percent, and Irving ranks second in second halves at 38.1 percent. Love has been much more proficient at home this season, averaging 40.72 DraftKings points, and when given at least two days of rest, he’s averaged 40.22 DraftKings points.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Value
David Lee may remain in the starting lineup ahead of Dewayne Dedmon, but coach Gregg Popovich has yet to tip his hand. Over the final three games of the first round, Lee averaged 19.2 FanDuel points in 28.5 minutes. If Dedmon is reintroduced into the rotation, let alone the starting lineup, Lee’s playing time will likely decrease. We won’t know that status until pregame media availability, which will likely occur one hour following lineup lock.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge: Aldridge costs $700 less than Love on FanDuel and $900 less on DraftKings. Aldridge’s poor first-round performance may reduce his ownership, and in four games against the Rockets, he’s averaged 33.19 DraftKings points, which is 3.04 points above his salary-implied point total today. Aldridge played at least 41 minutes in three games in this postseason, and his positional counterpart (Love) played less than 35 minutes in three of his four postseason games.
Centers
Stud
One center-only eligible player is projected to play more than 26 minutes. No option costs more than $6,000, and Dedmon is the only center on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating greater than 33 percent.
Values
Nene resembled Fezzik from The Princess Bride in the first round of the postseason, and even though he didn’t play more than 26 minutes in any of the five games, he exceeded salary-based expectations four times. He will likely continue to split minutes with Clint Capela, and Nene is cheaper on both platforms.
Tristan Thompson converted 83.3 percent of his attempts against the Raptors this season, and his efficiency can be attributed to Jonas Valanciunas‘ defense. Thompson played at least 30 minutes in three of the four first-round games and recorded at least 10 rebounds each time.
Fast Break
Clint Capela: Nene costs $100 less than Capela on DraftKings, and Capela’s the most expensive center on FanDuel. Based on his performance during the first round, fading him will be an easy option. He’s undercut in salary by his backup, who played two fewer minutes than Capela in the first round. However, Capela’s performance against the Spurs during the regular season is enough to consider him as a leverage option to Nene on DraftKings.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
