The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday presents a three-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Stephen Curry, John Wall, and Damian Lillard all cost at least $9,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. All three are projected for ownership greater than 41 percent in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), which can be tracked at our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock.
The Warriors-Blazers’ Vegas total of 219.5 is currently the highest on the slate, and Curry’s salary exceeds $10,000 on FanDuel for the first time this postseason. When Curry and Lillard have been on the court, the pace of the game has increased to 109.44 possessions per 48 minutes. Kevin Durant may return for the Warriors, but that may not impact Curry’s viability in cash games. Lillard costs less than Curry on both platforms, but his salary is up to $9,000 on DraftKings for the first time this postseason. The Blazers are on the brink of elimination, and that may be the propeller for Lillard to play more than 40 minutes.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
Wall failed to meet salary-based expectations on DraftKings in Game 3 in a road loss, and he’s struggled all season as an underdog.
Wall was limited to 31 minutes, as the game was over early, and the Wizards are once again road underdogs tonight. He leads all point guards on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and if he’s able to play his customary 37-39 minutes, Wall could improve upon his 54 percent Upside on FanDuel over the last month — tied for first among point guards. That favorite/dog trend and his poor overall numbers against the Hawks on the road — he’s had three straight games below 32 minutes — is concerning, but he does cost less than Curry on FanDuel by $100 and comes with solid Player Ratings:
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Brandon Jennings and Shaun Livingston (the latter missed the last two games and is officially questionable tonight) offer Bargain Ratings of at least 86 percent on FanDuel. Livingston costs just $1,500 there. Jennings has sparked the Wizards in the second half of the last two games, and when the Hawks’ Jose Calderon has been on the floor, Jennings’ usage rate has spiked to 21.2 percent. Livingston may not play or have his minutes limited, but he’s dealing with a sprained finger on his shooting hand. Both may play less than 15 minutes, and Jennings provides a more stable floor at double the salary of Livingston’s on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder: He leads the Hawks with a 29.5 percent usage rate and a 40.7 percent assist rate through three games, and among players with at least 10.0 drives per game, Schroder ranks first with a 66.7 percent field goal mark. Schroder has provided at least 39 DraftKings points in three straight games, and only three of his 20 3-point attempts haven’t been classified as open by NBA.com stat tracking data.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to meet salary-based expectations in two straight games. Through four playoff games, he has converted 56.4 percent of his shots within five feet of the rim — a drop-off of 11.4 percent from the regular season. He’s also been limited to 4.3 fastbreak points and 2.5 points off turnovers in 38.9 minutes per game. He ranked first in the regular season with 4.7 points off turnovers, and his struggles in the postseason are a testament to the Raptors’ transition defense.
Antetokounmpo is the only player on the slate projected to play at least 40 minutes (per the Player Models), and among players available on the slate, he ranks first with 38.9 minutes per game in the postseason. His salary has declined to $9,900 on DraftKings, where he’s point guard- and small forward-eligible. Shooting guard on FanDuel is stocked with plenty of options (Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum, for example), so spending up on Antetokounmpo isn’t a necessity. The Bucks’ primary playmaker leads all shooting guards in projected ownership.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Norman Powell started the last game ahead of Jonas Valanciunas and played 34 minutes. Coach Dwane Casey doesn’t plan to change the starting lineup tonight, and that’s a sign that Powell will once again start. He is listed at shooting guard on FanDuel and small forward on DraftKings, and on both sites he costs less than $4,000. He’s expected to be the chalk option on the slate should Casey stick to his word.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan: Kyle Lowry is dealing with back stiffness and is expected to play. The Bucks-Raptors game is the first game on the slate, and we’ll know Lowry’s status early enough to pivot to Cory Joseph, who is dealing with an illness, or Delon Wright. In the 33 minutes DeRozan has played sans Lowry this postseason, he’s recorded a team-high 39.7 percent usage rate with a poor 40.0 effective field goal percentage. DeRozan is the most expensive option at his position on DraftKings, and his production has vacillated to the point where he’s a better commodity in GPPs.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Small Forwards
Stud
Kevin Durant is questionable to play for the third straight game. He missed the past two games, and his status wasn’t updated until pregame media availability in both instances. He practiced on Friday and participated in Saturday’s shootaround, and we may not know his status until after lineups lock tonight. When Durant initially returned from a hyperextended left knee, his minutes were capped and he played less than 33 minutes in three straight games.
If Durant is ruled out, Curry, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, Patrick McCaw, and Draymond Green all become reasonable options in cash games. If Durant plays, he may instantly become the lock in cash games at small forward given the alternatives, although that would hurt the value of his teammates listed above.
Value
Evan Turner leads the Blazers with a 65.1 percent Consistency Rating in games with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus, and through three postseason games, he’s recorded a team-best 20 percent assist rate. He played at least 36 minutes in the two close games in this series, and the spread for Game 4 is currently seven points. Even in the blowout, Turner produced enough to meet salary-based expectations, and he still costs less than $5,000 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince: Coach Mike Budenholzer continues to start Prince, and in the first three games of the series, Prince has averaged a +3.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus while exceeding salary-based expectations in each game. Budenholzer praised Prince’s defense on Otto Porter; that’s a good sign for him to continue to play 28-32 minutes.
Andre Iguodala: In the 20 minutes Iguodala played with Durant on the court in Game 1, he averaged 0.31 DraftKings points per minute. With Durant off the court this postseason, Iguodala has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute despite a 10 percent usage rate (per the On/Off tool). When the Warriors have been implied to score at least 110 points on the road, Iguodala has led the Warriors in DraftKings Plus/Minus and Consistency:
Power Forwards
Studs
The Warriors will be coached by Mike Brown for the second straight game. In Saturday’s win, Draymond Green played 40 minutes for the fourth time all season and first time in a non-overtime game. Green even successfully lobbied to stay in Game 3 after picking up two fouls in the first quarter. Green has challenged a triple-double in three straight games, and when coach Steve Kerr was sidelined during the 2015-16 season, Green recorded eight of his 13 triple-doubles by imploring then–interim head coach Luke Walton to allow him to remain in games.
Green: DFS Scouting Report
Paul Millsap bounced back from an uncharacteristic Game 1 performance and has exceeded 51 DraftKings points in consecutive games. He has drawn 18 fouls over the last two games — one fewer than Wall, LeBron James, and Russell Westbrook. When Dwight Howard has been off the court, Millsap has provided a team-best 1.39 FanDuel points per minute and a +8.2 assist rate differential. Millsap leads all players with an 83.3 percent free throw rate, which is double his season average.
Millsap costs $400 less than Green on FanDuel and DraftKings, and coach Budenholzer has yet to play Millsap at least 36 minutes in the postseason. Both power forwards offer similar projected ceilings and floors, and Green may claim more downside since Durant could potentially return.
Value
Noah Vonleh will likely move back into the starting lineup now that Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out. In the first two games of the series, Vonleh recorded 12.0 and 13.1 FanDuel points in limited minutes due to early foul trouble. Now that Vonleh costs $3,200 on FanDuel, 11.91 FanDuel points is the mark needed to meet salary-based expectations.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka: He was a casualty of coach Casey’s experimental rotations in Game 4; Casey limited him to less than 26 minutes for the second straight game. Ibaka and DeMarre Carroll were the only starters to sit the final eight minutes of the win, and Ibaka managed to exceed 30 FanDuel points for the third time in this series despite converting just 4-of-16 shots. If you’re looking to pivot off Green or Millsap, Ibaka comes at a near $2,000 discount.
Centers
Studs
Marcin Gortat costs $5,600 on FanDuel, and Greg Monroe costs $5,700 on DraftKings. In both cases, each center provides a Bargain Rating of at least 86 percent. Green, Ibaka, and Millsap have dual eligibility on DraftKings, and all three offer safer floors at higher salaries compared to Monroe.
Gortat is the only center on FanDuel projected to play at least 30 minutes. His Game 2 performance was aided by five blocks, and he was limited to 13.6 FanDuel points in Game 3. The center spot on FanDuel may simply come down to salary savings, and Gortat has the edge over Monroe ($6,800) and Howard ($6,600).
Monroe ranks second on the Bucks with a 27.2 percent usage rate and first with 1.35 DraftKings points per minute as he splits playing time with Thon Maker this postseason. Monroe leads all players in the series with a 22.2 percent rebound rate, but he faces steep competition on DraftKings at center with Millsap and Green eligible. Monroe will likely play between 20-25 minutes, whereas Millsap and Green could approach 40 minutes.
Values
JaVale McGee leads all centers in Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and through the first three games of the series, he’s registered 67.3 FanDuel points in 38.83 minutes. Thon Maker‘s minutes have incrementally risen through the first four games as he dodges foul trouble. McGee averages more points per minute than Maker and shares center minutes with David West and Zaza Pachulia; Maker averages more minutes than McGee but plays at a slower pace. Both have low floors, and their salaries have risen to levels that match their Game 1 production (when Durant was healthy and Maker was limited to 15 minutes).
Fast Break
Dwight Howard: He costs a season-low $6,100 on DraftKings and a season-low $6,600 on FanDuel. He hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in any of the first three games of the series, and his usage rate has hit rock bottom at 12.8 percent. Howard’s role has been well established in this series, and that could cut down on his ownership in GPPs, creating a slight edge at a position that isn’t loaded in this three-game slate.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
