Monday brings a 12-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
This game has the highest Vegas total of the slate despite featuring a Spurs team that ranks 26th in pace, averaging 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and first in defensive efficiency, allowing only 100.6 points per 100 possessions. These teams — they are good.
The Spurs offer pretty much the worst matchup possible in DFS. Typically, it’s wise to fade a team against the Spurs. However, it’s possible that this Mike D’Antoni-led Rockets team might be the worst matchup possible for the Spurs, which have had trouble with ultra-athletic offenses in the past. (Think of the Thunder when they were rolling with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.)
In their three meetings already this year, the Rockets have largely crushed value:
James Harden has been especially great, averaging 59.8 DraftKings points, a +5.60 Plus/Minus, and exceeding salary-based expectations in all three contests. That said, he’s dipped a little in value ever since the Rockets obtained Lou Williams before the NBA trade deadline:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Our On/Off tool confirms as much: When Lou is on the court, the other Rockets see a major dip in usage rate.
That’s the issue with this version of the Rockets: Since Lou has joined, many of the main usage guys have struggled to hit value.
Guys like Nene have remained valuable, but that’s mostly because of their low price points. Nene especially has been cheap on DraftKings: He’s $3,800 today and has a 100 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games.
The Rockets are a great team, but their real-life depth is their DFS downfall.
On the other side, the Spurs have struggled to get things going against their fellow Texans:
That said, LaMarcus Aldridge has performed well in the past, and he’s recently exploded for 40.0 and 46.3 DK points over his last two games. He’s taken 24 and 19 field goal attempts in those contests, and if he sees that type of usage against a Rockets team that has been very poor against big men . . .
. . . he has a solid chance of paying off his reasonable $6,600 DK price tag.
Kawhi Leonard is the other Spur to look at, and he’s been on a ridiculous tear of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 and averaging a +7.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus over that time:
I mean, check out his recent game log.
He’s a better value on FD, where his $9,200 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating and 14 Pro Trends (accessible to Pro subscribers in our Player Models).
Kawhi: DFS Scouting Report
Point Guards
Say what you want about Stephen Curry‘s shooting woes — he’s been pretty awful of late — but a guy taking 20-plus shots against the Atlanta Hawks and Dennis Schroder (who ranks 444th out of 453 eligible players this season with a -2.74 Defensive Real Plus-Minus) has to be considered.
In the three games since Kevin Durant went down with an MCL sprain, both Curry and Klay Thompson have been unremarkable in terms of DK Plus/Minus — they’ve been at +0.8 and -3.0, respectively — but they’ve seen massive jumps in their usage rates:
Steph is bound to revert to his shooting mean eventually, and tonight could very well be that night in a great matchup.
Curry: DFS Scouting Report
Mike Conley should be a popular option tonight, as he’s done well lately . . .
. . . and he faces a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions/48, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.6 points/100. In their first meeting this year, Conley went for 43.2 FD points and a +10.66 Plus/Minus.
Conley has also done well this season in large pace-up games:
He will likely be chalky, especially on FD, where his $7,800 price tag comes with 12 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
A potential pivot from those guys in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), Damian Lillard has been outstanding lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +7.82 FD Plus/Minus during that time.
He did not play in the Blazers’ first meeting against the Wolves, but they generally all crushed value:
Lillard has actually had reverse home/away splits this season . . .
. . . and boasts the position’s second-highest projected ceiling despite carrying only the fifth-highest salary.
Lillard: DFS Scouting Report
PG is a top-heavy position currently, and some of the value plays are a bit riskier than they might seem. Ty Lawson, for example, played 37.1 minutes yesterday and has exceeded salary-based expectations in his last three games. That said, Tyreke Evans will be back tonight after resting on Sunday, although Garrett Temple will be out for rest tonight. It’s likely that someone will be an incredible value against a Nuggets team that has been awful against guards this year . . .
. . . but it is not immediately obvious who that player will be.
Speaking of Lawson: He’s worth a look in GPPs given the matchup and his low $4,600 FD salary.
Shooting Guards
Rodney Hood returned to the Jazz lineup and scored 35.8 FD points in 32.9 minutes of action yesterday against the Kings. The game did go into overtime, but Hood will likely still be a popular option give his starting role and $4,200 price tag on FD, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating. That said, he has been a little worse on back-to-backs this season . . .
. . . and there’s no guarantee that despite not being on a minutes limit yesterday he won’t have his minutes monitored today on the B2B. Even so, his price may still be too low.
As shown above, Klay Thompson has boosted his usage rate by 4.2 percentage points in the three games sans Durant.
Klay has played 36-plus minutes in each of his last four games, and while he’s a bit inconsistent of late . . .
. . . it’s highly likely that his awful 48.2 percent true shooting rate over the last three games will come back up to his usually outstanding average soon. He could definitely get the Thabo Sefolosha treatment . . .
. . . but Klay can get his shot off against anyone because of his quick release, and he still has a very juicy matchup against a Hawks team that allows 30.2 3-point attempts per game — the second-highest mark in the league.
Evan Fournier has been quite unremarkable yet very consistent lately, averaging a +3.91 FD Plus/Minus and exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games.
Fournier likely doesn’t have a ceiling worth pursuing heavily in GPPs, but he’s played 33-plus minutes in each of his last seven games and faces a Knicks team that has been the worst squad versus opposing SGs this year:
He’s already hit value on them twice this year:
Small Forwards
With Dwyane Wade now out with a strained left quad, Jimmy Butler becomes the immense chalk of the slate, even against a Detroit team that ranks 24th in pace, averaging 97.1 possessions/48, and eighth in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.9 points/100. Without Wade on the floor this season, Butler’s splits are ridiculously stark:
In six games without his wingmate, Butler has averaged 51.9 DK points and a +10.7 Plus/Minus in 38.3 minutes per game. Even with Wade, Butler exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the first two meetings this year with the Pistons:
He will be perhaps the chalkiest player in the slate, which makes a red-hot Kawhi at only $100 more on FD a very intriguing GPP pivot.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Khris Middleton has played 30-plus minutes over his last three games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each:
His role is increasing now that he’s close to 100 percent after tearing his hamstring in the preseason. He’s averaged a nice +6.21 Plus/Minus on FD, where his very low $5,600 salary comes with eight Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. As mentioned in several of my recent breakdowns, targeting guys with high FD Bargain Ratings at this point of the season is a solid idea:
The Orlando Magic version of Terrence Ross has been superb:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five games in Orlando, averaging a robust +11.9 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He has played at least 32 minutes in all five games, and he should continue to get the start against a Knicks team that has struggled to defend wings this year.
He remains way too cheap on FD, where his $4,500 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
If you need one more pivot from Butler: LeBron James versus his old team isn’t a bad move in GPPs.
James: DFS Scouting Report
Power Forwards
Dario Saric continues to creep up in price — he’s $7,400 DK/FD today — but that’s still not particularly close to his recent level of play. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaged a ridiculous +11.45 FD Plus/Minus during that time.
He has scored at least 37 FD points in five of his last six games, and his $7,400 FD salary requires just 30.4 points to meet value tonight. Further, he’s playing against a Milwaukee team that has slipped defensively of late, now ranking 20th in defensive efficiency and allowing 106.9 points/100. Thon Maker has defensive potential, but he’s still probably a couple years from realizing it.
Kristaps Porzingis was the chalk two games ago against the 76ers and disappointed, getting into early foul trouble and scoring only 29.9 FD points in 31.1 minutes. Then yesterday, he put up 47.0 FD points in 40.3 minutes against Draymond Green and the Warriors. Overall, he’s been recently consistent because of his low price tags: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, averaging a +4.31 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
He has a nice matchup today against an Orlando team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.0 points/100, and has been particularly poor against opposing big men this year:
He’s still underpriced at $6,700 on FD, where he has 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
In that same matchup Aaron Gordon is also a nice play at only $5,200 and after hist last two games:
If you want to pay up for a PF, Nikola Jokic is an interesting option against a Kings team lacking high-end talent, although it is noteworthy that Jokic was downgraded to questionable with an illness. If he’s able to play, he’s certainly worth shares in GPPs, as he’s posted three straight games of 45-plus FD points with two triple-doubles.
The Kings rank 24th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.4 points/100, despite having guys on their roster (Willie Cauley-Stein, for example) with elite defensive upside. If Jokic is unable to go, Mason Plumlee would become a chalky value option, especially since Kenneth Faried was also ruled out tonight with lower back spasms. Plumlee would be the only center on the roster, and he’s only $4,300 on DK, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Centers
Jusuf Nurkic is currently making the Nuggets-Blazers trade look even worse than it did at first glance (and it didn’t look pretty then), as he’s absolutely crushed value as a Blazer:
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five games and averaged a silly +13.6 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He has a fantastic matchup against a Minnesota team that has been awful defending the rim this year . . .
. . . and he remains oddly cheap on FD, where his $5,900 price tag comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Cody Zeller is still working his way back from a quad injury that sidelined him for 13 games. He got up to 26.8 minutes Saturday against the Nuggets, and it’s likely that he’ll have to keep on increasing his workload especially now that Frank Kaminsky will be out 10-14 days with a sprained left shoulder.
Last game was the first one without Frank the Tank, and the ultra-thin Hornets had to play Johnny O’Bryant and Christian Wood 15 and five minutes, respectively. O’Bryant was just given a second 10-day contract because of their lack of depth, which emphasizes even more Charlotte’s need for Zeller to return to form. He has a nice matchup today against an Indiana team that ranks 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.3 percent of the boards on the year, and he’s quite affordable on FD, where his $5,000 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
In their first meeting this year, Marc Gasol put up 43.8 FD points and an +8.62 Plus/Minus against the Brooklyn Nets, who are the best team to target in DFS, as they rank first in pace, averaging 103.7 possessions/48, and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.6 points/100.
Brook Lopez is certainly not a defensive-minded center: His +0.20 DRPM this year ranks 60th out of 70 eligible centers.
Gasol has massive upside in this matchup, leading all centers in the slate with 12 FD Pro Trends, but he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership because of the likely chalkiness of the value guys listed above.
Good luck!
News Updates
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