Monday brings a six-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Since it’s a smaller slate, let’s jump straight into the positions.
Point Guards
The point guard position is tricky today: These guys don’t have great matchups:
In fact, the only team in a great situation (in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus) is San Antonio versus Cleveland, but the Spurs essentially split minutes between Patty Mills and Tony Parker, limiting the utility of either player. Even without Parker in the first meeting, Mills compiled only 24.1 FanDuel points. With his increased price today — he is $4,400 on FanDuel — and the addition of Parker, it’s hard to get excited about either player despite the matchup.
When in doubt, it might be smart just to pay up for the safety of Russell Westbrook, despite his miserable -3.98 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel and high $12,900 salary. He plays Dallas, which isn’t a particularly great defensive team — the Mavericks rank just 15th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions — but they’re slow: They rank 29th in pace, averaging 94.0 possessions per 48 minutes. And there is legitimate concern: Westbrook’s average Plus/Minus has dropped from +6.12 to +2.48 in games with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
Against Dallas specifically Westbrook has scored ‘only’ 53.90 FanDuel points on average in two meetings.
All that said, given the available PGs today, locking in 50 points at PG — even if that’s slightly below value — is still something to consider.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Derrick Rose is only $5,900 on FanDuel today, which means that he needs just 23.76 points to hit value. He’s been able to do that even in brutal matchups over the last three games:
Those three road games in a row is about as tough as it gets for a PG, and Rose’s ability to meet value is a good sign for today against a Pistons team that ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.4 points/100. Over the last 15 games, he’s been below today’s expected point total just once . . . against these very Pistons. Still, he’s cheap and could benefit from the absence of Carmelo Anthony, who sat out Saturday’s game with a sore left knee.
A potential pivot play, Elfrid Payton has experienced a salary bump to $7,100, but it’s hard to say it’s not justified:
Over his last 10 games, he has averaged a ridiculous +10.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency. Like most PGs, he has a brutal matchup: The Raptors are third since the All-Star break in defensive efficiency, allowing just 100.3 points/100 during that time frame. However, Elf has been solid in negative matchups this year . . .
. . . and the guard positions remain Toronto’s defensive weakness (per our Matchups tool):
Shooting Guards
As much as I just bashed the point guard position today, shooting guard might be even worse:
DeMar DeRozan is the only SG to average at least one FanDuel point per minute (1.11, to be exact), but he doesn’t bring the same type of safety Westbrook does. He’s been poor lately, averaging a -1.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 30 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
DeRozan: DFS Scouting Report
Fortunately, there are some solid punt plays at the position.
Tony Allen could be a popular punt at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel. He’s played between 28 and 31 minutes in each of the last four games, and he’s responded with unremarkable yet solid production:
He was $5,000 on FanDuel just a couple weeks ago, and somehow he’s $1,000 cheaper today despite being very consistent over that time frame. The Kings often present a tough matchup for teams because of their slow pace — they rank 25th in that regard, averaging 96.9 possessions/48 — but that’s no trouble for Memphis, which ranks 28th in pace and averages 95.2 possessions/48. Allen’s on the second leg of a road back-to-back, but in seven such instances this season that situation actually hasn’t been bad for Mr. First-Team All-Defense:
Above Allen are two guys who have been very consistent lately in Victor Oladipo . . .
. . . and Buddy Hield:
Hield ($5,400 FanDuel) is cheaper than Oladipo and has been a superior DFS asset of late, as evidenced by his +7.61 Plus/Minus. That said, his matchup against the Grizzlies is a much more difficult one than Oladipo’s ($6,000) against the Mavericks, who play at a slow pace but actually aren’t great defensively, ranking just 15th and allowing 105.8 points/100. That said, Memphis has ranked just 26th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing 110.0 points/100 . . .
. . . although that may not matter as much considering Hield will have to battle one-on-one against Allen:
Thus, Dipo might be the safer option, and he was solid against the Mavericks in his first meeting against them this season.
Small Forwards
Thankfully, at the SF position we do have high-end talent worth paying up for despite tough matchups:
LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard will likely carry most of the ownership among the four “studs,” especially since Gordon Hayward and Carmelo Anthony are both questionable to play today. Kawhi is certainly in the best spot of the four, as the Cavaliers have been the second-worst defensive team since the All-Star break, allowing an embarrassing 113.5 points/100.
Further, Kawhi is $1,800 cheaper than LeBron on FanDuel and he dominated in their first meeting this season:
That said, the difference between the two is a lot smaller on DraftKings: LeBron ($10,300) is only $800 more than Kawhi ($9,500). LeBron struggled in the first meeting this season against Kawhi, who is maybe the best wing defender of all time at this point . . .
. . . but LeBron has also been a beast over his last 15 games:
He’s a scary fade even against Kawhi.
Kawhi: DFS Scouting Report
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Anthony: DFS Scouting Report
Pro subscribers can review LeBron and Kawhi’s ownership across various tournaments in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Harrison Barnes‘ price is down to $5,600 on FanDuel, and he’s in a situation that has historically been a positive one for him: A large ‘pace-up’ game. In 41 games this season against opponents who play at least five possessions per 48 minutes faster than the Mavericks, Barnes has averaged 30.08 FanDuel points and an impressive 73.2 percent Consistency Rating. He gets the Thunder today, who rank seventh in pace, averaging 100.6 possessions/48. His matchup against elite wing defender Andre Roberson isn’t ideal . . .
. . . but he’s been able to beat it in the past:
Also in play is Terrence Ross, who is still averaging a poor 0.73 FanDuel points per minute but has scored at least 14 real points in each of his last four games and will face his old team (the Raptors) for the first time since getting traded for Serge Ibaka. #RevengeGame, anyone?
Power Forwards
Kristaps Porzingis did not play well on Saturday, scoring only 20.0 FanDuel points in 26 minutes on the road in San Antonio. That’s understandable. Despite that, he’s still averaging an impressive +7.37 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10:
While he’s been bad without Melo (who, again, is questionable) this season, averaging a -9.20 DraftKings Plus/Minus in four such games (per our On/Off tool) . . .
. . . that sample is small and heavily skewed: It is brought down by an early-season blowout and Saturday’s road game against the Spurs. Today’s matchup against the Pistons isn’t a walk in the park — they rank 10th in defensive efficiency on the year — but they’re not the Spurs.
If we expand the sample to look at how Porzingis has done on a per-minute basis without Melo on the floor this year . . .
. . . he’s increased his usage rate by 2.3 percentage points to 27.0 percent, and he’s been just as efficient, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute.
LaMarcus Aldridge often carries lower ownership, but he’s been an excellent DFS asset lately, averaging a nice +6.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He has had games with very high usage rates lately . . .
. . . and he certainly has a lot of upside against a Cavs team that, again, ranks 29th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, allowing 113.5 points/100. For reference, the Lakers rank dead last in defensive efficiency on the whole season, allowing 111.1 points/100. The Cavs have been bad lately. Further, Aldridge played very well against the Cavs in their first meeting this year:
If you want to pay all the way up, you’ll likely get an ownership discount on Anthony Davis, since 1) there are nice lower values at PF today and PG is a wasteland, 2) his usage rate has dropped since DeMarcus Cousins came to town, and 3) he’s facing the Jazz, who rank dead last in pace, averaging only 93.7 possessions/48, and third in defensive efficiency, allowing just 102.5 points/100. That said, Davis’ projected ceiling on FanDuel is nearly 20 points higher than that of any other PF (although he’s a better value on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends, which Pro subscribers can access via our Player Models). Davis has been awful against the Jazz this year . . .
. . . but it’s not as if he hasn’t shown upside in games with negative Opponent Plus/Minus values this year:
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
Centers
Nikola Vucevic‘s salary is finally up a bit to $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel, but it’s still probably nowhere near as high as it should be based on his current production:
He has averaged a ridiculous +8.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games. That said, he has struggled in negative matchups this season . . .
. . . and, again, Toronto has been the third-best defensive team in the league since the All-Star break. In March, they’ve been tough on opposing big men:
That trend might put Vuc in the GPP-only category, but thankfully Rudy Gobert is still way underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’s averaged a silly +13.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
Further, he has a positive DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.47 against a Pelicans team that has been better defensively since the All-Star break — they rank fourth in defensive efficiency over that time, allowing 101.0 points/100 — but has still struggled to rebound the ball, ranking just 23rd in that same time frame in rebound rate, grabbing just 48.9 percent of the available boards. Against bottom-five rebounding teams this year (New Orleans is 29th on the season), Gobert has smashed, averaging a +7.68 Plus/Minus on 83.3 percent Consistency:
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
If you want to pivot to a guy around the same price point as Vuc and Gobert, Andre Drummond is an intriguing player for GPPs: His minutes have been incredibly volatile of late . . .
. . . but he’s playing the Knicks, who rank dead last in defensive rebound rate and 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points/100. He hammered them for 48.0 FanDuel Points just a couple weeks ago in just 30 minutes of action (he had 24-15), and he generally plays better against poor competition:
Given his recent minutes volatility, he could go underowned in GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
