Monday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
As of Monday morning, this game has the highest Vegas total by a whopping 16 points. The Lakers are currently 12.5-point underdogs — and they’re still implied for the second-most points in the slate with 108.75. Of course, that will likely change once we have lines on the Jazz-Clippers and Spurs-Hawks games, but the point still remains. Both the Lakers and Nuggets are nice DFS targets, as they rank fifth and eighth in pace, averaging 100.9 and 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th and 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.4 and 110.5 points per 100 possessions. There will be scoring.
The Lakers have played Denver twice already this year, but there may not be much useful information to take away from those first two contests. High-usage guard Lou Williams dominated, but he’s now with the Rockets. In eight games without Lou this year, Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell have led the team with 30.0 and 27.9 FanDuel points per game (per our NBA On/Off tool):
And that even undersells how great they’ve both been in general: Randle has averaged a ridiculous +9.71 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games on perfect Consistency . . .
. . . and Russell has been nearly as good, averaging a +6.41 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency:
He missed value last game, scoring only 23.3 FD points in 33.0 minutes thanks to 5-of-17 shooting, but the minutes and usage is there. Denver remains the worst team in the league against opposing PGs this season (per our NBA Trends tool):
Jordan Clarkson also qualifies for that trend, and he exploded last night for 51.2 FD points thanks to a 30-6-8 line. He’s posted a +7.59 FD Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games as well.
Also, it’s fine to get some exposure in tournaments to guys like Ivica Zubac and Larry Nance Jr. given their low price points and incredible matchup. Brandon Ingram profiles more as a cash-game option and has been wildly inefficient this year, averaging only 0.59 fantasy points per minute, but he’s also still only $4,000 FD and should play 35-plus minutes. He’s been solid lately:
Like the Lakers, the Nuggets aren’t the same team they were in the first two meetings against LA. That said, there are still some notable games here:
Nikola Jokic will by far be the best big man on the court and will face a Lakers team that has struggled to defend the rim this year (per our NBA Matchups tool):
Jokic hasn’t played heavy minutes lately, but he’s still been able to put up big games.
Jameer Nelson and Wilson Chandler have both been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game. In the one game they missed this year, rookie Jamal Murray moved into the starting lineup and finished with 22.7 FD points and a +9.4 Plus/Minus in 30.3 minutes. The Lakers aren’t Denver-bad against PGs, but they are bottom-10 given their fast pace and overall poor defense:
Murray’s average of 0.75 FD points per minute without Jameer isn’t great, but he’s also only $3,800 FD.
Kenneth Faried is also doubtful for tonight’s game, and Jokic exploded for an average of 52.5 FD points in his two games without Faried and Chandler. Juancho Hernangomez also played very well, along with Will Barton, and Hernangomez will likely move into the starting role. He averaged 27.4 FD points and an impressive +13.0 Plus/Minus in 37.9 minutes per game without those Faried and Chandler. Like Murray, he’s very cheap at only $3,900 DK and $3,500 FD.
And don’t forget about guys like Gary Harris and Danilo Gallinari. They profile more as cash-game options, but a lot of the Denver guys could be very nice values given their huge implied team total and potential lack of depth against a bad Lakers squad. Harris has a 70 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and he’s only $5,600 on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends.
Pro subscribers can see Pro Trends and other metrics for our highest-rated players in our Player Models.
Point Guards
The Spurs’ rotation is still in limbo, as Tony Parker (back), Dejounte Murray (groin), and LaMarcus Aldridge (heart) are all out and Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a concussion. In five games this season without both Parker and Murray, Patty Mills has received the start and averaged 28.9 FD points and a +12.8 Plus/Minus in 27.7 minutes per game. He should get the starting nod again today and will need to be very involved in shot creation given the Spurs’ current lack of depth. The Hawks are good defensively, ranking fourth in efficiency and allowing 103.5 points/100, but they are miserable against point guards, mostly because of the defense of Dennis Schroder . . .
. . . who ranks 444th out of 455 eligible players in the NBA this season with a -2.83 Defensive Real Plus-Minus:
At only $4,000 FD, Mills should be a very popular value play in cash games. Pro subscribers can review the ownership for Mills (and other players) in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Ricky Rubio must have done something to offend the DFS sites, because he can’t seem to get a price increase despite doing this over his last 10 games:
He has averaged a high +8.37 DK Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over the last 10 games is currently rated highly in the Phan Model. His matchup today isn’t that tough against John Wall and the Wizards, who rank 14th in defensive efficiency and allow 105.7 points/100, but that likely wouldn’t even matter anyway. Rubio has crushed even against the best teams in the league:
Rubio in DK cash games, drink.
Potentially a low-owned dart for guaranteed prize pools, Dennis Schroder has been excellent over his past five games:
He is only $700 less than Rubio, and he has a perceived brutal matchup against the Spurs, who rank first in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 100.6 points/100. However, Schroder did put up 40.25 DK points in 28.9 minutes against the Grizzlies on Saturday, and the matchup against the Spurs might not even be that bad with potentially three starters out of the lineup. Per nbawowy.com, with Kawhi off the floor the Spurs have allowed 105.9 points/100. For reference, that would rank 18th on the year, just in front of Indiana.
Shooting Guards
Almost no one will pay up for Giannis Antetokounmpo given his brutal matchup against Memphis, which ranks sixth in defensive efficiency and allows just 104.2 points/100, and also his recent play:
His usage has decreased lately: From the beginning of the season until February 1, Giannis used about 29 percent of the Bucks’ possessions while on the floor. Since then, he’s been at about 27 percent, and that’s also come with a slightly lower assist rate. That said, Giannis still showed his massive ceiling just a couple games ago, going for 69.1 FD points against the Knicks. He did well against the Grizzlies in their first meeting this year . . .
. . . he is at least worth a look given the state of the SG spot today, especially since he’ll carry very little ownership.
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
The Timberwolves have been excellent defensively over the past couple of weeks, but Bradley Beal has been just as good offensively in that time:
He’s averaged a high +8.48 DK Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, and he continues to play large minutes: He hasn’t gone below 32 since exactly a month ago. Like with most of the Wizards, Beal has somewhat negative home/road splits . . .
. . . but they’re negligible and he’s been good in both places. Further, that trend hasn’t held up recently: Over the past two months, Beal has been dynamite no matter where he’s played:
Nicolas Batum is questionable tonight with a migraine, but he’s certainly in play in GPPs if he’s able to suit up. He’s been silently consistent, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games.
He is averaging a 23.8 usage rate and a large 26.4 percent assist rate since the beginning of February, increasing his usage from earlier in the year by about two percentage points. Chicago had a top-10 defense for most of the year, but the Bulls have slipped to 11th in defensive efficiency without Taj Gibson, now allowing 105.5 points/100 on the season. Batum has averaged 46.13 DK points and a +10.73 Plus/Minus in two meetings against the Bulls this year:
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard is questionable to play with a concussion, but he certainly looms large over this slate. The small forward position today isn’t great, and Kawhi has averaged a +6.44 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games:
Further, Aldridge and his sizable 25.2 percent usage rate will be out indefinitely, which means that Kawhi will absolutely have to dominate possessions offensively for this Spurs team. In five games sans Aldridge this year, Kawhi has averaged 42.7 FD points and a +6.1 Plus/Minus in 32.3 minutes per game. If he has to play more minutes than that — and it’s possibly he will given the other Spurs injuries — he will be an incredibly popular cash-game option, especially on FD, where his $9,300 salary comes with 14 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Gordon Hayward was limited to just 21 minutes Saturday versus the Thunder, as Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors were both out and the Jazz were down big at halftime. Still, Hayward has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games . . .
. . . and he should have to play big minutes again, as this game has only a one-point spread in favor of the home Jazz. In 15 ‘close games’ this season — I used a spread of three each way as a proxy for this — Hayward has averaged 40.65 DK points and a +6.50 Plus/Minus, and he’s hit salary-based expectations 80 percent of the time.
Hayward: DFS Scouting Report
Again, the SF position is brutal. Ingram will be a popular value play, and Kawhi should have massive ownership if he suits up. This is where contests will be won and lost today.
Power Forwards
Jokic and Randle will be popular options today, but let’s pivot down to a value guy. David Lee is only $4,700 FD, and he has averaged 25.49 FD points and a +9.2 Plus/Minus in 24.9 minutes per game this season without Aldridge. His +8.0 Plus/Minus differential leads the team:
The Hawks are definitely a tough matchup — they rank fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing only 103.5 points/100 — but this is about price and opportunity. Lee’s low FD salary comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and guys with high FD Bargain Ratings have been valuable commodities.
And on the other side of that game, Paul Millsap now has an easier matchup against Lee, who has made improvements defensively this year in the Spurs’ system but still isn’t close to Aldridge’s level of play.
DK definitely prices players according to matchups, which is why Millsap is only $6,900 today despite averaging a +4.08 Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games:
This matchup still won’t be a cakewalk, but the price decrease to account for the Spurs is too drastic with Aldridge out and Leonard questionable.
Willie Cauley-Stein is too volatile for cash games, but given his ceiling and potential for high minutes, he’s worth a shot in GPPs.
He has legitimate 40-point FD potential, and his price tag is reasonable at $5,000 DK and $5,500 FD. Further, Orlando has been one of the five worst teams against opposing centers this year, allowing a +5.06 FD Plus/Minus on incredible 71.6 percent Consistency. Despite the fact that he’s listed as a power forward and will even likely start there alongside Kosta Koufos, he’s still largely a center: He’s played 75 percent of his minutes there this season, and we adjust our Opponent Plus/Minus metric for positional splits. Among PF starters tonight, he has the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus behind Jokic and Gorgui Dieng.
Centers
Rudy Gobert is intriguing tonight for several reasons. First, he’s facing the Clippers, and he’s been awful against them this season:
Further, he missed Saturday’s game with a sore right leg and is questionable tonight. That said, Derrick Favors is definitely out tonight, and Gobert has been fantastic in the 18 games without him this year, averaging 36.4 FD points and a +7.9 Plus/Minus in 35.1 minutes per game:
The only other center on the roster is Jeff Withey, who played 22 minutes in the start on Saturday but did not play well, as the Jazz were down big at halftime. The Jazz will need Gobert to keep up with the Clippers, and their lack of frontcourt depth makes him intriguing in GPPs, especially at his $7,200 DK price tag, despite the obvious red flags.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
Karl-Anthony Towns has been an absolute monster in 2017:
His current $10,500 FD salary requires only 43.96 points to hit value, and he’s largely been above that over the past couple of months. This game pits two hot teams against each other, and the Wolves are currently two-point home favorites. Towns has large home/away splits this year . . .
. . . and he smashes as a home favorite:
The Wizards rank just 24th in defensive rebound rate on the year, giving up 24.5 percent of available offensive boards.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
Marc Gasol put up a dud on Saturday against the Hawks, scoring only 19.5 DK points in 27.5 minutes of action. Overall, he’s been very up and down over his last 10 games, exceeding value just 60 percent of the time:
That said, he has a nice matchup against rookie Thon Maker and the Bucks, who have dropped to 19th in defensive efficiency this year, allowing 106.4 points/100.
Maker gets the token start and then plays very little sometimes, but the Bucks’ other big men — Greg Monroe plays the most minutes — aren’t great defenders, either: Monroe ranks 48th among all centers this season with a +0.78 DRPM. His 34.75-point DK outing in their first meeting is almost exactly what he needs to hit value tonight.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
