Monday brings a seven-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets
In Saturday’s breakdown, I discussed why the Rockets are difficult to roster: Outside of James Harden, their incredible team depth hurts both the floor and ceiling of any one player. Here’s how they performed that night (per our Trends tool):
Harden got his, Patrick Beverley had a nice game, and the rest of the main players — six guys! — scored between 22 and 33 DK points.
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Sure, Bev was nice to roster, but that 40-point game could have been any of those guys, be it Lou Williams or Eric Gordon off the bench, or perhaps Ryan Anderson getting hot from downtown. The Rockets seem like a team to target (and perhaps stack) on a nightly basis — they’re currently implied by Vegas for over 120 freaking points — but in reality their depth is too great to create DFS value.
That said, it’s still fine to target guys when they’re underpriced, as like Williams on DraftKings . . .
. . . and even Nene, who’s near the minimum price:
The Rockets big men all split minutes — Nene, Clint Capela, and Montrezl Harrell played 19.3, 21.9, and 6.8 minutes last game — but it’s likely one of them will perform well against a Pacers squad that has allowed a +2.30 DK Plus/Minus to the center position and ranks 26th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.0 percent of the available boards this season.
The best collective DK Plus/Minus the Pacers have scored against any individual team this year has come against the Rockets. That is mostly because their three main guys — Paul George, Jeff Teague, and Myles Turner — all exploded for 45-plus DK points.
Beverley did play that game, but he remains the toughest matchup (per our Matchups tool):
Turner especially remains an intriguing option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), as the Rockets have been the fourth-worst team since January 1 against opposing centers, allowing an average DK Plus/Minus of +5.81.
Point Guards
Without Kyle Lowry yesterday, Cory Joseph yet again easily met value, scoring 25.2 FanDuel points in 33.1 minutes. Overall, per our NBA On/Off tool, in three games this season sans Lowry, Joseph has averaged 31.4 FD points and a massive +16.7 Plus/Minus.
Lowry is currently questionable tonight, and if he’s unable to play yet again don’t overthink it: Joseph remains cheap at only $4,400 FD and has a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Update: Kyle Lowry to undergo wrist surgery; likely out for regular season.
Derrick Rose hasn’t exactly posted inspiring DFS performances lately . . .
. . . but he did play 36.0 minutes last game and the Knicks just waived backup PG Brandon Jennings today. Rose will likely have to play big minutes, as his backup is now Chasson Randle, who played overseas for a couple years out of Stanford before getting a 10-day deal and making his NBA debut with the Philadelphia 76ers in mid-January. Given the Knicks’ offensive schemes and Randle’s professional track record so far, it’s safe to say that it might take him a bit to adjust. And I haven’t even mentioned yet that Kristaps Porzingis is unlikely to play, and Rose has crushed in two games this year without him and Joakim Noah:
If you want to pay up for a point guard today, it might be a good time to buy low on Isaiah Thomas. He’s met salary-based expectations in literally only one of his last 10 games . . .
. . . but he’s facing the Hawks, who have been the third-worst team in the league this year versus PGs:
That point is especially impressive considering that, on the whole, the Hawks are very good defensively, ranking fifth in efficiency, allowing only 103.4 points per 100 possessions. The blame for that discrepancy can be placed almost entirely on Dennis Schroder, who has one of the worst Defensive Real Plus-Minus marks in the entire NBA.
Shooting Guards
I mentioned both Joseph and DeMar DeRozan in yesterday’s breakdown with Lowry questionable to play. I’m doing it again today. Going back to that on/off query . . .
. . . we see that DeRozan has been a revelation without Lowry, averaging 52.0 FD points and an absurd +15.9 Plus/Minus in three games without him. He’s averaged a team-high 36.8 minutes per game and has used an incredible 41.6 percent of the Raptors’ possessions during that time. He put up 33 real points yesterday and hit 15-of-16 free throws. He also has a solid matchup against a New York team that will be without Porzingis and ranks 25th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.8 points/100. He’s affordable at $8,500 on FD, where he has 12 Pro Trends (accessible via our Player Models) and a 93 percent Bargain Rating, but he becomes a GPP-only play if Lowry is able to suit up.
As a pivot to the chalky DeRozan and probably Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo could a productive GPP play. Before I started writing this breakdown, I thought that Giannis typically plays up to his competition, especially against a guy like LeBron James. Is that true? [Create a trend in about four seconds, look at the data, and find the answer.] YES, that’s true.
Further, the Bucks will be without Khris Middleton and obviously Jabari Parker, and coach Jason Kidd even said yesterday that Giannis’ minutes were scaled back in order to conserve him for today’s game. In comparison to DeRozan, Giannis could put up a massive game at reduced ownership.
As a cheaper option, Seth Curry has done well, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and averaging a +4.08 DK Plus/Minus over that time.
He’s played huge minutes lately — he’s gone 37.3 and 36.8 in his last two games — and will likely continue to handle the ball for the Mavs with Deron Williams now gone and J.J. Barea still injured. He does have a slightly negative matchup against a surprising Miami defense that now ranks sixth in efficiency on the year, allowing 104.0 points/100, but given his price Seth does have a lot of safety in his playing time. The top SGs should be very chalky, along with the Houston backups in Gordon and Lou, so Seth could be a nice way to find a unique lineup without giving up a lot of value.
Small Forwards
Andrew Wiggins has been an incredible DFS asset lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +8.53 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
Even before Zach LaVine tore his ACL, Wiggins and he had highly negative correlation marks:
Because of that, Wiggins’ splits are pretty easy to analyze: Without LaVine, his true price should probably approach $9,000 FD.
Against this Sacramento roster . . .
. . . Wiggins certainly has massive upside.
Robert Covington has a brutal matchup against Golden State, which ranks second in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 101.3 points/100. The Warriors start no bad defenders, and Kevin Durant has taken a step forward in that regard this season.
That said, Covington has done this over his last 10 games . . .
. . . and continues to have excellent splits with Joel Embiid off the floor this year:
He’s priced up to $7,100 FD, but that is still significantly below his current production. He needs only 29.03 FD points to hit value tonight. He’s averaged over 40 in his last three games.
It’s tough to find a mid-tier SF to get excited about, but Jae Crowder does seem a bit underpriced at $5,300 on DK, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He put up 39.3 DK points in 33.4 minutes yesterday against a tough Pistons squad, and he has an easier matchup against an Atlanta team that is more exploitable at the guard and wings spots than down low. Thabo Sefolosha is obviously a good one-on-one defender . . .
. . . but he’s also playing a maximum of 20 minutes currently. The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites at home, where Crowder has positive splits this year.
Power Forwards
Serge Ibaka seemed to fit in well last game with his new team, putting up 38.0 FD points in 34.5 minutes against the Blazers:
He’s been one of the most underrated offensive players in the league this year . . .
. . . and he certainly has a nice matchup against a poor Knicks defense that will likely start Lance Thomas in Porzingis’ place. Ibaka is oddly cheap at only $5,900 on FD, where he has 10 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Dario Saric has the same issue as his teammate in Covington. He has a brutal matchup against the No. 2 Warriors defense and will have to match up specifically with one of the best defenders in the league in Draymond Green:
But then you pull up his player card:
He has absolutely crushed value over his last 10 games, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of them and averaging an +11.36 Plus/Minus. With the lack of depth in the 76ers’ rotation currently — Embiid is out and Nerlens Noel and Ersan Ilyasova were traded over the All-Star break — Saric has been a must-play of late:
Again, it is a brutal spot — the 76ers are 13.5-point home dogs — but it is hard to deny his production at his still cheap price: He’s only $7,000 on FD, where he has a position-high 14 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
As is the case at SF, it’s tough to find a mid-tier or value play at PF. As a result, I think it’s wise to find a player with safe minutes in a nice matchup, and Gorgui Dieng checks both of those boxes. He put up 45.3 DK points in 36.0 minutes on Saturday against the Rockets, and tonight he gets a matchup against a now Boogie-less Kings team. Dieng is the odd Timberwolf of the group, as he’s the only main guy to have reverse home/away splits:
The Kings rank 24th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.5 points/100, and it’s likely they’ll continue to get worse throughout the rest of the year without Cousins to keep them afloat. Dieng isn’t sexy, but he has positive indicators and the Kings have a D-League roster.
Centers
Guillermo Hernangomez has certainly had volatile minute loads this year, even when starting . . .
. . . and still he’s been valuable, averaging a +7.77 FD Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
That said, he will likely split time with Kyle O’Quinn, who put up 35.5 FD points in 24.8 minutes on Saturday versus the 76ers. These guys might be a little too thin for cash games, even with Noah and probably Porzingis out, but one could certainly have a big game. Hernangomez and O’Quinn are both cheap, especially on FD, where their salaries of $5,900 and $4,500 come with Bargain Ratings of 99 and 98 percent.
Expensive as usual, Karl-Anthony Towns has highly negative home/road splits on the year . . .
. . . but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of a huge game, as evidenced by his 67.9-point FD explosion on Saturday in Houston. He put up 37 real points and 22 rebounds in that game, and now he gets the Kings. He’s playing massive minutes lately — he’s gone 37.3 and 39.4 in the two games since the All-Star break — and he’s grabbed 22, 18, and 19 rebounds over his last three games. With a frontcourt of Kosta Koufos and Anthony Tolliver now starting for the Kings, it’s safe to say that Towns has similar upside tonight.
Towns: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
