Monday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Note: The two ‘Games of the Day’ on the NBA Flex podcast are Nuggets-Warriors and Blazers-Hawks. Check out those breakdowns, as well as notable injuries and positional breakdowns, here.
The Pelicans are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back and will face a Suns team that just sat Eric Bledsoe (rest) and Tyson Chandler (ankle). If the two-point spread is a bit confusing, that (plus the fact that the game is at Phoenix) is a big reason why.
These two teams have now faced each other three times this season, and here’s how the Pelicans’ guys have fared:
Anthony Davis struggled to meet value in the first two meetings, but he did go for 58.3 FanDuel points just a week ago in their third meeting. After dealing with injuries for several games in a row, he’s been quite consistent even at high price tags over the past 10 games.
Jrue Holiday, on the other hand, has been nothing short of a revelation lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a ridiculous +10.43 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He has played the Suns only twice this year, but he’s dominated them to the tune of 44.2 FD points and a +13.4 Plus/Minus. Considering his reasonable $8,300 FD price tag requires only 34.3 points to hit value, he’s an elite play yet again today against a poor Suns defense.
The Suns play at the league’s fourth-fastest pace, averaging 101.8 possessions per 48 minutes, and own the third-worst defense, allowing a poor 109.4 points per 100 possessions. There’s excess value outside of Davis and Jrue today, as shown by E’Twaun Moore, Terrence Jones, and Solomon Hill all hitting value in their previous games versus the Suns. Both Moore and Jones missed yesterday’s game, although Moore’s absence was due to a personal reason, while Jones’ was due to a sprained right thumb that has sidelined him since last Wednesday. Their statuses are unclear for today, and if they’re out again, both Dante Cunningham and Hill will be value punt plays that should see 30-plus minutes.
Note: Cunningham has been ruled out tonight due to a personal reason.
On the Suns’ side, many of their main players have performed well against the Pelicans this season:
Bledsoe really struggled in their last meeting, scoring only 30.0 DraftKings points in 23.9 minutes. Considering that he got Saturday’s game off for rest and the Pelicans have been the fifth-worst team against PGs this year, Bledsoe is a great GPP option, especially at only $7,700 FD, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Chandler is probable after missing Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle, and although he’s performed well against the Pelicans this year — he’s averaged a +14.4 FD Plus/Minus in three games — there is downside. With Davis full-time at the center position now, the Pels have shot up to top-10 in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.1 points/100. They remain terrible on the glass — their 47.5 percent rebound rate is second-worst in the NBA — and Chandler will have to put up a big game in that regard to return value on his $5,100 DK price tag.
T.J. Warren has averaged a +6.26 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games despite seeing very volatile minute loads during that span:
He put up 34.3 FD points a week ago and remains very affordable at only $4,900. Devin Booker has a great matchup in theory . . .
. . . but a week ago he managed to make only five of his 20 shots and finished with 24.9 FD points. That said, he did put up 41.3 points against them in their first meeting. The New Orleans defense is improved, but Booker still has a lot of upside in this matchup; don’t be results-oriented with his prior game.
Point Guards
The first meeting between the Thunder and Wizards this season turned into a point guard duel between Russell Westbrook . . .
. . . and John Wall, both of whom exceeded salary-based expectations by quite a bit.
They’re the two highest-priced PGs options on the day, and while they may not be necessary in cash games given the elite options in the tier below them, they’re certainly worth rostering in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Denver Nuggets continue to be the Coors Field of NBA DFS for point guards:
Today, they have to face Stephen Curry, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaged a +6.53 Plus/Minus during that time. He put up 53.3 DK points against them in their first of two meetings this year, and today the Warriors are 11.5-point road favorites implied for a silly-high 125 points against the Nuggets. The Vegas total opened at 239.5 points, which is the highest mark in our database of the past three seasons.
And don’t forget about Damian Lillard, who has crushed value over his last three games . . .
. . . and faces a Hawks team that has been excellent defensively as a whole — they rank fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing 103.5 points/100 — but has been the third-worst team versus opposing PGs this year. 
It’s unclear who will start at center for the Blazers after the Mason Plumlee trade, but note that when Plumlee has been off the floor this year, Dame has boosted his usage rate by an incredible 5.3 percent.
For a value play, Jameer Nelson will continue to start in Emmanuel Mudiay‘s absence. Nelson has put up back-to-back games of 39.0 and 41.5 DK points and will likely get over 30 minutes in this high-paced affair. In 10 games now without Mudiay this season, Jameer has averaged 26.3 DK points and a +6.0 Plus/Minus in 34.2 minutes per game. At only $5,000 FD, he needs just 19.8 points to hit value.
Shooting Guards
Lillard will be the popular choice without Plumlee and against a Hawks team that struggles against PGs, but if we revisit the On/Off query with Plumlee off the floor, we see that C.J. McCollum has also seen a sizable bump without Mason on the floor.
With all the injuries to the Nuggets, they could potentially have only nine players for tonight if Wilson Chandler is ruled out. Barton will likely have to play heavy minutes on the wing along with Gary Harris, and he remains only $5,800 on FD, where he comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. The Warriors are obviously very stout defensively — they rank second in efficiency on the year, allowing only 101.4 points/100 — but they will be without Klay Thompson, who is a solid defender. Andre Iguodala will probably get a lot of run in his absence, but we should also see quite a bit of guys like Ian Clark and Pat McCaw alongside Steph. Barton certainly has upside and safety in this juicy high-total game.
As a pivot from those guys, Wesley Matthews has been incredible lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaging a +6.65 FD Plus/Minus over that time.
This is a large ‘pace-up’ game for Matthews, as the Celtics average five more possessions per 48 minutes than the Mavericks. Matthews has been increasing his assist rate lately without Deron Williams, and he brings a lot of safety in a fairly volatile position today. He leads all SGs with 11 FD Pro Trends.
Small Forwards
Without Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston, both of whom will miss tonight’s game, on the court, Curry has been the guy: He’s increased his usage rate by a silly 9.7 percent in an average of 7.5 minutes per game.
There’s no denying Curry’s chalkiness tonight; however, Kevin Durant might be right there with him because of positional scarcity. Durant’s current +7.30 FD Projected Plus/Minus is nearly double that of any other SF, and his projected ceiling is at least seven points higher. The other high-priced studs like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George play each other tonight, and they’re excellent defenders. The shots from Klay will have to go somewhere other than Steph, and the Warriors are currently implied for 125.5 points.
Andre Iguodala is likely in the cash-game mix as well. In the one game that Klay missed this season, Iggy saw three more minutes than usual and increased his assist rate by 3.2 percent. He’ll likely have to approach 30 minutes in this one, and at only $3,900 DK against a Denver squad that ranks top-five in pace and has the league’s worst defense, it’s hard to imagine Iggy not paying off that price tag (he needs only 17.15 DK points to do so). He currently leads all SFs on DK with a +5.45 Projected Plus/Minus.
Robert Covington has been on fire lately, even before and after a right hand contusion that kept him out of a couple games a week ago.
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaged a +9.52 FD Plus/Minus over that time frame. Most people focus on Joel Embiid‘s big man replacement like Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel, but Covington has been very solid without him: In 18 games sans Embiid this year, Covington has led the team with 31.0 minutes per game, and he’s posted 28.8 DK points and a +5.1 Plus/Minus during those contests. He’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership today.
Power Forwards
We’ve already discussed Davis, so we should also touch on Nikola Jokic and Draymond Green from this Nuggets-Warriors game. Jokic is certainly a better value on DraftKings at $9,200 — he owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating there — but he’s also center-only eligible there, as opposed to PF-only eligible on FD. This is a tough matchup — the Warriors are second in defensive efficiency on the season — but Jokic has shown that he can perform well against them. Per our Trends tool:
Draymond is a solid play in all contest formats as well, and he’s especially affordable on DK, where his $7,800 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. These teams both play at top-five paces, which means that transition opportunities, steals, and blocks will likely be plentiful. Draymond is probably the only player in the league that can post 65-plus DraftKings points on only four real points, and he has immense upside again today.
The two value plays at the position will likely be Frank Kaminsky and Nerlens Noel, both of whom have played well lately and are projected to start due to injuries to Cody Zeller, Joel Embiid, and Jahlil Okafor. Kaminsky has been incredibly volatile lately . . .
. . . but possesses a very high ceiling for a guy priced at only $4,800 on FD, where he comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Further, he owns a large +3.74 Opponent Plus/Minus against a Philly team that has posted the worse defensive rating in the league with Embiid on the bench.
Noel hasn’t flashed the same ceiling as Kaminsky, but he should approach 30 minutes with Philly’s two main big men both out for this contest. He put up 33.1 FD points in 31.7 minutes on Saturday versus the Heat, and now he will be guarded by Kaminsky, who isn’t exactly known as a world-class rim protector.
In five games this year without Embiid or Okafor, Noel has averaged 33.6 DK points and a massive +10.2 Plus/Minus.
Centers
Dwight Howard has been pretty awful lately:
Outside of the massive revenge game against the Rockets (57.1 FD points in 37.3 minutes), he’s been below 34 FD points over his last 10 games. That said, he has a lot of upside against a Portland team that plays at a top-10 pace, averaging 99.7 possessions/48, and has the fourth-worst defense, allowing 109.0 points/100. They were already very poor rebounding the ball — they ranked 23rd in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 49.0 percent of the available boards — and they will now be without Plumlee due to the trade. A frontcourt rotation of Ed Davis, Meyers Leonard, and Noah Vonleh should have Dwight salivating.
Choosing a center on DraftKings is a completely different game than on FanDuel because of their positional eligibility. Marcin Gortat continues to be massively discounted on DK, where his $6,100 price tag comes with nine Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He brings immense safety because of his consistent play:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging an impressive +8.67 Plus/Minus over that time. He’s a cash-game option yet again.
Andre Drummond is also discounted on DK, where his low $7,900 salary comes with a position-high 13 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
He’s averaged a +7.85 Plus/Minus over his last 10, and he has a +2.52 Opponent Plus/Minus today against a Bucks team that has really struggled to defend centers this year. They have a bottom-10 rebound rate, and they’ve been especially bad defensively of late, mostly because they’ve had to play rookie Thon Maker more minutes.
Drummond has one of the position’s highest ceilings, yet he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
