Monday brings a five-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
The big news from this game is that Kevin Love has been ruled out after missing the second half of Sunday’s game with back spasms. James Jones started the second half in his absence, but it was Tristan Thompson who picked up the slack, scoring 49.9 FanDuel points in 33.6 minutes. Our NBA On/Off tool confirms that you should look at players besides Jones:
This is a bit of a tricky sample — LeBron James and Kyrie Irving have played in only four and three games without Love — but there’s no doubting that they’re incredibly valuable when Love has missed time. The most intriguing data point from the above image, however, isn’t the DraftKings points or Plus/Minus numbers. It’s the pace without Love. Overall, the Cavs rank 14th in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes. However, in games without Love, LeBron and Kyrie have played at paces around 93 possessions/48, which would rank right around Dallas’ league-low mark of 93.4. Dallas is usually a team to avoid for DFS purposes — LeBron and Kyrie have awful Opponent Plus/Minus values of -3.67 and -5.31 on FD — but they have a history of playing slow and playing well without Love.
Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson may not start, but they’ll likely get the majority of the extra frontcourt minutes alongside Thompson. Frye has been better than Jefferson in games without Love, but that’s mostly been due to his efficiency: He’s averaging 1.2 points per possession and has a true-shooting percentage of 62 percent, compared to 0.9 PPP and 49.9 percent for Jefferson. Both are cheap, but Frye’s higher usage rate and superior shooting give him a leg up as a punt play.
Finally, Tristan is absolutely worth rostering in guaranteed prize pools again after his stellar performance yesterday. He played incredible defense in that game, gathering four steals and four blocks to go along with his double-double of 19 points and 12 rebounds. And that was against the Thunder, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency and third in rebound rate. Today he gets a Dallas team that is dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.3 percent of the available boards. The center position isn’t lacking in this slate, but don’t forget about Thompson even in a low-total game.
Deron Williams will remain out for the Mavs, which means that Dallas will yet again start a backcourt of Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry. First, hello, Kyrie. Second, these guys are quite viable in their own right. They played 35.6 and 36.9 minutes yesterday against the Spurs and performed very well: Ferrell scored nine points, dished out seven assists, and grabbed two steals without committing a turnover, and Seth dropped 43.5 FD points on a 24-10-5 line. Against the Spurs. Both play a lot of PG with Deron out, and the Cavs have been one of the worst teams against opposing PGs in January. Per our Trends tool:
Seth is the safer play here, but Ferrell shouldn’t be overlooked.
Of the rest of the guys, Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews have been playing the best basketball of late. Matthews returned from a week-long absence due to a strained hip yesterday and put up 32.9 FD points in 30.9 minutes. He should not see a minute restriction and is especially intriguing on DK, where his low $4,500 salary comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating and a +2.27 Opponent Plus/Minus. Dirk is also a better value on DK, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has posted a respectable +4.38 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Targeting a Dallas game is typically not a good idea, but this could be a sneaky night to do just that, especially given the Cavs’ poor defense over the last three weeks.
Point Guards
The mid-tier range of PGs today is loaded with guys who have been amazing DFS assets lately. Here are their current FD salaries and Plus/Minus values for their last 10 games:
• Goran Dragic ($7,800): +7.03
• Mike Conley ($7,500): +4.02
• Ricky Rubio ($6,600): +7.71
• Reggie Jackson ($6,600): +2.15
• Elfrid Payton ($6,600): +7.49
Reggie might seem like the odd man out of this group, but that’s only because he struggled prior to a very nice recent four-game stretch:
Further, he has an excellent matchup against Isaiah Thomas and the Celtics, who have been one of the worst teams versus opposing PGs this season.
Thomas has rightfully been getting a ton of love as the All-Star game nears, but his defense has been an under-discussed storyline this year. Out of 87 eligible PGs this season, he ranks dead last in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).
Other of these mid-tier guys have excellent matchups, too. Dragic and Conley face the Nets and the Suns, both of whom play at fast paces and have poor defenses. They suck against opposing PGs.
Rubio has an average matchup, but he’s also at home, where he has significant splits this season.
Point guard is loaded today: We didn’t even really discuss Thomas or Eric Bledsoe, who has been perhaps the hottest DFS player over the last couple of weeks. Choose your spots carefully.
Shooting Guards
Dion Waiters scored ‘only’ 27.1 and 27.5 FD points over his last two games, but he still hit value since FD has been so slow to raise player salaries this year. He remains just $6,300 there today, which is far too low, especially against a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 104.1 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.0 points per 100 possessions.
On the other side of the spectrum, Devin Booker has a brutal matchup against a Grizzlies team that plays slow and ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions. That said, Booker has had a difficult schedule over the past month and largely hasn’t been negatively affected by poor matchups.
He’s yet to play the Memphis Grizzlies this year, and it will certainly be a tough test against stud wing defender Tony Allen, who’s a sneaky punt play in this pace-up spot: The Suns have been the third-worst team in the league to opposing SGs, allowing a +4.8 FD Plus/Minus.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jaylen Brown will face off against each other today, although it is possible that KCP slides down to check Thomas. KCP has a nice Opponent Plus/Minus today, but he typically profiles more as a cash-game option and hasn’t had a safe enough floor in that regard lately. Brown has impressed over his last two games, scoring 25.1 and 31.6 FD points in 28 and 30 minutes. At only $3,600 DK, he’s worth a GPP dart on the chance that KCP does indeed guard Thomas tonight and Brown gets a smaller Jackson instead.
Small Forwards
LeBron is $3,200 more expensive on FD than any other SF. Without Love, it’s still probably worth paying up for him.
Andrew Wiggins is second in salary at $7,300, and he’s a fine cash-game option given his very high minutes floor: He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of his last 15 games. He has a neutral matchup against Aaron Gordon and the Magic, who have allowed a bottom-10 mark of 107.0 points per 100 possessions on the season. Minnesota is right there at 107.3 points per 100 possessions allowed on the year, but Gordon has seen his minutes dip to 26.2 and 22.8 over his last two and has seen a small dip in usage rate, too. When you can pay Jeff Green $15 million and play him over your future star wing, you have to do it.
P.J. Tucker is one of the least sexy DFS players to roster — mostly because of his minuscule 10.8 percent usage rate this season and 10.34 PER — but the dude has played heavy minutes lately, which has translated to fantasy value:
That said, you probably don’t need to dip down that far given that Jae Crowder is still affordable at $6,300 FD. He’s been unbelievably consistent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games and averaging a robust +8.04 Plus/Minus over that time.
He has a poor -3.34 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons, but he also brings a lot of safety at a relatively volatile position.
Power Forwards
Speaking of that Pistons-Celtics game, the Detroit PFs are intriguing but also cannibalize each other. Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris played 24.3 and 27.9 minutes last game, and per Basketball Reference they’ve both played a majority of their minutes at the PF spot this season — 96 and 68 percent. They have Opponent Plus/Minus values of +2.03 and +1.46 on FD, but it’s hard to trust either in cash games given their sub-30 minute averages.
The guy with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus of PFs is James Johnson, who surprisingly still saw significant run and played very well on Saturday against the Pistons despite the return of Hassan Whiteside to the lineup. Per the On/Off tool, Whiteside’s absence has been the time to target JJ:
And while the larger sample (all games minus Saturday) suggests that Johnson shouldn’t be used in cash games, Saturday’s game in which he dropped 41.1 FD points in 32 minutes suggests he’s worth GPP exposure even at $6,000. It doesn’t hurt he faces the Nets.
Zach Randolph has been the guy to ride in all contest formats lately, despite playing off the bench.
He’s played at least 30 minutes in each of his last three games, which is more than starter JaMychal Green, who has been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with a right knee injury. In theory, it’s probably a negative for Z-Bo’s value for him to start instead of dominate second units, but then again he’d be playing against a guy who should be on a second or third unit in Marquese Chriss.
And I guess we should quickly touch on Gorgui Dieng, who has a safe minutes floor but is the rare Timberwolf to have reverse home/road splits . . .
. . . and he has a fairly strong negative correlation (-0.28) with Karl-Anthony Towns.
Centers
As you’d expect with the correlation and Dieng’s splits, KAT is an absolute beast at home this year:
He also has a huge +5.16 Opponent Plus/Minus against an Orlando team that has been miserable against opposing centers this year and just poor defensively in general, allowing 107.0 points per 100 possessions. He’s been dominating lately . . .
. . . and he gets a good matchup at home. Like LeBron, KAT is hard to fade in cash games tonight.
That said, the salary cap is more restrictive on DK, where Marc Gasol is only $7,800 with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. This is a massive pace-up game for the Grizzlies against the Suns, who rank third with 101.7 possessions per 48 minutes and 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.6 points per 100 possessions. It’s a small sample, but in two games this season without Green, Gasol has smashed:
On the other side of that matchup sits Tyson Chandler, who has turned back time lately.
He’s grabbed at least 13 boards in nine of his last 11 games, the last two specifically coming against a Denver team that ranks first in rebound rate on the year. Today he gets a Memphis team that ranks ‘only’ 11th, grabbing 50.7 percent of the available boards. Gasol has oddly been an awful rebounding center this year, grabbing a career-low 10.0 percent of the rebounds while on the floor. Chandler easily has the position’s worst Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.22, but that may overstate the spot, and he has only five to eight percent projected ownership on FD.
We’ll finish the position off with three guys who have played well lately in Nikola Vucevic, Andre Drummond, and Brook Lopez. Vuc and Drummond are each coming off 50-plus point FD outings and both have excellent Opponent Plus/Minus values today of +2.16 and +2.42. Vuc certainly has an easier matchup against a Minnesota team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency on the year, but Drummond has a lot of upside against a Boston team that ranks 26th in rebound rate and could be without Al Horford for yet another game. And finally Brook: He’s crushed value lately . . .
. . . and he gets a Miami team that has struggled against centers this year.
He’s laughably cheap on DK, where his $6,500 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
