Monday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks
This game boasts the highest Vegas total of the day at 223.5 points, although in their first meeting this season just last Wednesday the Rockets won 111-92 — a low 203-point total. Both stars played well, with James Harden going for 59.20 FanDuel points in 36.7 minutes and Giannis Antetokounmpo finishing with 58.20 FD points in 37.0 minutes of action.
Harden has shown that he can perform well even in poor matchups (per our Trends tool):
He put up 55.20 FD points Saturday against Memphis, which this year owns the league’s fourth-best defense. Harden will likely be guarded by Giannis on the defensive end, but it’s tough to be scared away from his $11,900 price tag no matter the matchup at this point. He remains a viable play in all contest formats and is projected for a position-high 26-30 percent ownership on FD.
Harden has a high positive correlation with Montrezl Harrell . . .
. . . but Harrell is seeing fewer minutes lately with a fairly equal big rotation with Clint Capela and Nene.
Eric Gordon remains the best non-Harden play for the Rockets: He’s back to 30-plus minutes off the bench and is only $5,600 on DK, where he has a +2.25 Projected Plus/Minus and a +1.03 Opponent Plus/Minus. Playing off the bench is especially valuable against the Bucks, who have been very poor with Giannis off the court. Nearly every play has a disastrously negative Net Rating, per our On/Off tool:
Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, and Ryan Anderson profile more as cash-game options because of their limited ceilings. While you probably don’t need to go that route because of the value in the Spurs-Nets game today, they’re certainly viable targets given the Rockets’ 114.5-point implied team total.
Giannis will likely be guarded by Ariza, who has been better defensively this year — he has a +1.16 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) on the season — but who also struggles with wings who can get to the basket.
He’s currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his $10,800 salary comes with a position-high +5.23 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a +1.44 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Jabari Parker is the other Buck worth rostering on a nightly basis, and he’s actually been a cash-game option lately with his Consistency and narrow range of outcomes:
Again, there are likely better ‘values’ on the board today, but Jabari does bring a lot of safety, especially in a projected matchup against the defensively-inept Anderson.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall has crushed value lately, going for at least 40 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 14 games. He has a nice matchup today against a Hornets team that has been below-average against starting PGs:
Wall brings immense safety, as he’s projected for a position-high 37.7 minutes and a 29.17 usage rate today. He put up a massive game against the Hornets in their first meeting, dropping 59 DK points. He’s currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where his $9,300 salary comes with a position-high +4.55 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a large +2.31 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Value
Tony Parker and Pau Gasol remain out for the Spurs, and Manu Ginobili is uncertain for today’s game against the Nets. Rookie Dejounte Murray has taken over the starting PG role in Parker’s absence, and while that hurt Patty Mills‘ value in their first game — he scored only 6.2 FD points in 16.15 minutes of action — Mills bounced back last game, scoring 24.1 FD points in 30.70 minutes. That first game was likely the outlier, as he’s been a great value in 11 games without Parker this season:
In those games, Mills has averaged 25.1 DK points and an +8.1 Plus/Minus in 27.4 minutes. Despite coming off the bench, he’s the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $3,600 salary comes with a +4.63 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
With a clear value in Mills and a clear stud in Wall, it could certainly be a nice move in guaranteed prize pools to target a mid-tier player like Kemba Walker. He gets a Washington team that has been below average defensively this season, allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets have been playing well lately, blowing out the Raptors just two games ago, and are currently 4.5-point favorites implied for 109 points at home. Kemba has averaged a +4.77 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and is projected for 33.2 minutes and a high 28.96 usage rate. He’s a better value on FD, where his reasonable $7,900 price tag comes with a +3.16 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. At only nine to 12 percent projected FD ownership, he’s a nice GPP pivot down from Wall.
Shooting Guard
Stud
We already discussed Harden versus Giannis, so we’ll pivot down to a GPP play in Nicolas Batum: Like his backcourt mate in Kemba, he should bring low ownership — he’s also projected at nine to 12 percent on FD — because of his awkward pricing between the studs and a clear value play. Batum put up 41.8 FD points in 35 minutes last game against the Nets, and he’s projected for 34.5 minutes tonight against Bradley Beal, who is better as a team defender than one-on-one. Batum has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games, and he’s only $7,300 on FD, where he comes with a +4.69 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Dejounte Murray is projected to start for Parker tonight and has put up excellent games over the last two in Parker’s absence, scoring 23.4 and 30.4 FD points in 22.1 and 34.5 minutes of action. He’s scored 14 and 24 real points in 21 combined field-goal attempts in that span, and while that may not seem like incredible production he’s only $3,800 on FD and needs just 14.54 fantasy points to hit value. A rookie from the University of Washington, Murray thrived in transition in college, and the Spurs have averaged nearly three possessions per 48 minutes more with Gasol out of the lineup. Further, the Spurs get the Nets, who play at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 104.2 possessions per 48 minutes. Even if Murray gets only 22 to 25 minutes, it’s hard to fade a starting PG versus the Nets at his sub-$4,000 price tag.
Leverage Play
Dion Waiters put up 40.1 FD points in 33.1 minutes last game against the Bucks and has gone for at least 28 minutes in each of his last five contests. He gets a tough matchup against the Warriors, who rank first defensively in the league and allow only 101.0 points per 100 possessions, but he’s still very cheap at only $5,500 on FD, where he has a massive +6.09 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for 33.0 minutes and a high 27.45 usage rate in Tyler Johnson‘s absence, and he’s attempted at least 12 field goals in each of his last five games. Dion won’t do a lot besides score, but very few players at his salary range use as many possessions as he does. He’s currently a top-five option in the Phan Model for FD, and he’s projected at only five to eight percent ownership.
Small Forward
Stud
Without Parker and Gasol in the lineup, Kawhi Leonard has used a whopping 36.6 percent of the Spurs’ possessions:
That’s an increase of 5.9 percent, and in those four games Kawhi has averaged 47.0 DK points and a +6.70 Plus/Minus. At his price tags of $9,400 DK and $9,800 FD, he needs 44.65 and 40.88 fantasy points to hit value. That seems reasonable against a Nets team that is first in pace and third-worst in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 109.5 points per 100 possessions. Kawhi will match up against Bojan Bogdanovic, who is 98th out of 98 eligible SGs with an embarrassing -3.42 DRPM. Kawhi versus LeBron is an interesting debate given Kawhi’s price tag tonight, but there’s no doubting his elite spot.
Value
With Rodney Hood out for two weeks with a right knee bone bruise, Joe Ingles (yes, a real NBA player) has stepped up into the starting lineup, scoring 24.0, 27.8, and 26.0 points in at least 33 minutes per game over his last three games. His price hasn’t really budged, especially on FD, where his low $3,900 price tag comes with a position-high +6.52 Projected Plus/Minus and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s projected for 32.6 minutes tonight and should draw the easier matchup of Thunder guards, as he’ll face Victor Oladipo while Gordon Hayward will draw elite wing defender Andre Roberson. This game has the lowest total of the slate at 203 points, but all of the Jazz games have low totals. Jingles is the No. 1 SF in the FD Phan Model and is projected for 21-25 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been an excellent DFS asset lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games, averaging a robust +6.81 FD Plus/Minus over that time. He’s at his best when he’s rebounding the ball, and he grabbed 14 boards last game and has nine or more in seven of his last nine outings. Washington has been a below-average rebounding team this season, especially struggling with defensive rebounds: Opponents have grabbed 24.4 percent of their available offensive boards — a bottom-10 mark. MKG remains very affordable on both sites, especially FD, where his $5,400 price tag comes with a large +6.33 Projected Plus/Minus and eight Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Stud
There are incredible values today at PF — we’ll get to those in the ‘Value’ and ‘Leverage Play’ sections — which means that paying all the way up for Anthony Davis could be a contrarian move in tournaments. He’s disappointed lately . . .
. . . but that’s because he’s gotten injured in nearly every game over the past week. He hasn’t gotten above 30 minutes in each of his last three outings because of injury concerns, but in the two games prior to those he scored 60.8 and 70.6 FD points against the Bulls and the Knicks. He’s averaging a position-high 1.42 FD points per minute over the last year, and his 66.1-point FD ceiling projection is worth pursuing in GPPs. He’s projected for 17-20 percent ownership, but that could dip even more considering his recent string of injury (bad) luck.
Value
David Lee should be one of the chalkiest plays of the night, especially on FD, where his $5,100 salary comes with a +6.55 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. We’ve talked a lot about the Spurs today, and check out today’s NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, in which we discuss just how many Spurs you can viably use in a single lineup (hint: a lot). Lee has averaged 25.5 DK points and an +8.0 Plus/Minus in four games without Gasol. He’s averaged 27.7 minutes and a 21.6 percent rebound rate in those contests, and he gets a Brooklyn team that is first in pace and bottom-five in both rebound rate and defensive efficiency. He’s the No. 1 PF in the FD Phan Model by a mile.
Leverage Play
Markieff Morris should also be chalky: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a ridiculous +9.63 FD Plus/Minus during that time.
He’s been playing huge minutes lately — he’s had 33-plus in each of his last four games — and is projected for 35.4 minutes and a respectable 22.06 usage rate today. Charlotte isn’t the easiest matchup in the world — the Hornets have the seventh-best defense in the league, allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions — but he needs only 29.15 and 25.96 DK and FD points to hit value, which we’re projecting he will do. He’s the No. 2 PF in the FD Phan Model, with a +5.34 Projected Plus/Minus and nine Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins destroyed the Bulls on Saturday, scoring 67.3 FD points in 35.38 minutes thanks to 42 real points and 14 rebounds. We’re projecting him to start at the PF spot alongside Kosta Koufos, which means that projected Detroit starter Tobias Harris will have to guard one of the big men:
Tobias certainly does not have the body to handle Cousins in the post, and Andre Drummond‘s post-up defense has been miserable this season, as evidenced by his poor 1.1 PPP mark in that category. The Kings are currently 6.5-point dogs on the road in Detroit implied for only 99.25 points, but Boogie’s massive 63.6-point projected FD ceiling is indicative of his potential value in GPPs. It might be wise to pay down a bit to Rudy Gobert in cash games, but Boogie has an elite ceiling compared to his fellow centers.
Be sure to check out our DFS scouting report on Boogie for more details.
Value
Myles Turner leads all starting centers in Opponent Plus/Minus on FD at +5.39, and he gets an elite matchup against a New York squad that ranks 25th defensively this season, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions. Turner is a bit up and down — over his last five games he’s shown a range of 18.2 to 39.9 FD points — but he certainly has a nice upside for tournaments in this matchup. The Knicks have allowed the fourth-highest offensive rebound rate in the league, and Turner double-doubled against them just two weeks ago. He’s currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his reasonable $6,300 price tag comes with a +2.48 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
I mentioned Rudy Gobert as an excellent cash-game play, and that’s certainly true if Steven Adams can’t go for the Thunder. Gobert has shown an elite floor lately, grabbing double-digit rebounds in each of his last 15 games and averaging an impressive +6.74 FD Plus/Minus over his last 10. Another guy worth paying up for that should be quite low-owned is Hassan Whiteside, who 1) hates the Warriors and and Draymond Green in particular and 2) dominated them last time out. He went for 57.0 FD points thanks to 28 points and 20 rebounds two weeks ago in Oakland, which is impressive given Whiteside’s extreme home/away splits:
He’s at home tonight and is projected for only two to four percent ownership on FD.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
