Monday brings an 11-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Suns at Rockets
Of the 11 games we currently have Vegas lines for, the Suns-Rockets game has easily the highest over/under at 229.5 points. However, the Rockets are large 13-point favorites, which makes guys like James Harden risky for cash games.
Using our Trends tool, I queried how the Rockets have done in large-spread games (seven-plus points) in the Mike D’Antoni offense. Not so bad:
And Harden in double-digit spread games has been excellent:
You’re probably fine fading Harden in cash games because of the risk and the size of the slate, but his 73.7-point projected DraftKings ceiling should be targeted in guaranteed prize pools.
The rest of the Rockets, specifically Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, and Eric Gordon, profile more as cash-game plays because of their low ceiling and consistency, but they’re fine in this matchup. The Suns play at the second-fastest pace in the league, averaging 103.4 possessions per game, and they also own the 24th-ranked defense, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are currently implied for a slate-high 121.25 points — the highest total by 10 points.
The Suns are intriguing as well: They’re currently implied for 108.25 points against a Houston defense allowing a below-average 105.0 points per 100 possessions. Eric Bledsoe has the worst matchup of this game by far against Patrick Beverley, who is second among all PGs in the NBA with an elite 1.23 Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM), but the other Suns wings are nice tournament targets. Devin Booker has been hot lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, and he’s especially cheap on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a +3.12 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. T.J. Warren is back from his lingering head injury, and he got up to 31.7 minutes last game. He’s scored 19 real points in back-to-back games and owns a +1.47 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. Montrezl Harrell continues to play well in abbreviated minutes, but his ceiling and floor are both too low in this 11-game slate to warrant significant exposure.
Point Guard
Stud
Because of injuries to regular ‘Studs’ like Chris Paul and Damian Lillard, we have a lot of PG value today. It’s probably wise to spend down in cash games. That said, John Wall is down to $8,800 DK — he was $9,700 three games ago — and he owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating. He has a tough matchup against the ninth-ranked Bucks defense and Matthew Dellavedova, who has held opposing PGs to incredibly low shooting averages this season:
That said, Wall is less dependent on scoring than other PGs, and he put up 47.3 FD points against the Bucks a couple of weeks ago. Again, it’s probably optimal to pay down for PGs, but Wall has the highest-projected FD ceiling among PGs (59.8 points) and should have lower ownership than Kyle Lowry, who faces a Portland defense ranked dead last in defensive efficiency.
Value
Shabazz Napier and Raymond Felton will likely get the start for the two studs mentioned above: Lillard and CP3. Of the two, Felton is the cash-game play: He put up 35 FD points in 37.6 minutes just last night with CP3 out, and he’s projected for 35.3 minutes tonight against Denver, who has been the most generous team in the league by far to opposing PGs. Felton owns a massive +5.16 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and a +6.08 Projected Plus/Minus. Napier is riskier: He’s likely to start, but in the seven games without Lillard last year, it was C.J. McCollum who played PG as Allen Crabbe shifted over to SG. It was a valuable situation for those two players:
Napier is currently the No. 1 player in both of the DK and FD Phan Models because of his minimum price tag, but be aware of the risk of this situation.
Leverage Play
The second-most generous teams to PGs this season has been the Hawks:
Ricky Rubio has been excellent lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games and has averaged a +4.34 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s projected for 13-16 percent ownership currently, but that range could certainly dip if Napier and Felton become chalky punt options today when we get confirmed starting lineups. Rubio has a large +4.55 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and is an excellent contrarian pivot up from the value guys and down from the upper-range players like Lowry (versus Portland) and Kemba Walker (versus Brooklyn). PG is absolutely loaded today.
Shooting Guard
Stud
We’ve already discussed Harden, so let’s jump down to DeMar DeRozan. He’ll face a Portland team that ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing an embarrassing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. He actually owns a -1.40 FD Opponent Plus/Minus, but that might not be representative of today’s game. My theory with SGs struggling versus a bad Portland defense is that they’re largely concerned with defending Lillard and McCollum, and that’s less of an issue today with Lillard doubtful. If McCollum slides down to PG on offense and Lowry takes that defensive assignment, then DeRozan could be defended by Crabbe, who owns a -2.44 DRPM, 93rd among 99 eligible SGs. For what it’s worth, McCollum is 90th with a -2.33 DRPM. No matter the matchup, DeRozan has a high ceiling tonight.
Value
Nicolas Batum scored 50.2 FD points last game against a top-12 Chicago defense, and tonight he gets a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace (104.5 possessions per game) and 28th in defensive efficiency (108.9). Batum has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games, averaging a robust +5.61 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Brooklyn has been especially generous to opposing SGs: Batum owns a large +3.13 Opponent Plus/Minus and will start opposite Sean Kilpatrick, who has been poor defensively this year.
Batum is currently the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +3.61 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum is projected for only five to eight percent ownership on DK, although his ownership levels will probably be lower than they should be because of the potential chalkiness of Napier. Last year, McCollum increased his usage rate by 3.3 percent and had a DK Plus/Minus differential of +8.3 points in the seven games sans Lillard. Overall, he averaged 43.4 DK points and a massive 30.5 usage rate in those games. At only $6,800 on DK, he’s an elite tournament play. He has a poor -2.34 Opponent Plus/Minus, but he could play some at PG, and the Raptors have been the third-most generous teams to PGs this season, allowing a +5.4 Plus/Minus.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George and Jimmy Butler face off this evening. As expected, both own negative DK Opponent Plus/Minus values of -0.94 and -1.41. George is cheaper on both DK ($7,700) and FD ($7,900), and he owns the position’s second-highest projected DK floor of 26.5 points behind LeBron James, who is currently questionable to play after a grueling Christmas day matchup versus the Warriors. George hasn’t flashed elite upside lately, but he’s currently projected for 37.6 points and a 30.63 usage rate, and his +4.25 Projected Plus/Minus leads all SFs. It’s not a great position in this slate — Ariza is intriguing in that Suns game — but George’s salary is at a 12-month low. When facing Butler, he’s averaged 38.96 DK points in six games, which is higher than his 36.15-point salary-based expectation.
Value
After being a chalky play for several slates in a row, perhaps Kent Bazemore will go overlooked tonight. He’s projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership on FD after scoring only 15.4 FD points in 31.1 minutes versus the Nuggets last game. That said, he’s still projected 31.2 minutes and remains cheap at $4,300 on FD, where he has a high +4.56 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. The Hawks face the Timberwolves, who have disappointed in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system thus far: They rank 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.3 points per 100 possessions.
Leverage Play
On the other side of the Hawks-Wolves matchup sits Andrew Wiggins, who continues to play absolutely massive minutes: He’s had 36 or more in each of his last seven games and is currently projected for 38.7 minutes and a 25.69 usage rate tonight. He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his low $6,200 salary comes with a position-high +6.02 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He has a tough one-on-one matchup against stopper Thabo Sefolosha, but it’s not completely dire:
The mid-range area has been Wiggins’ bread and butter, and he should be able to use his quickness to get to his spots. He’s averaged a high +4.64 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games and has since decreased in price.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is a ‘Stud’ because his $11,600 price tag is a whopping $3,200 higher than that of any other PF in the slate. Despite the fact that Dallas ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and has allowed a poor 106.0 points per 100 possessions this season, this is a negative matchup for Brow because the Pelicans play seven possessions faster than the Mavericks on average. Players versus the Mavs have to be incredibly efficient to have good DFS days, which is actually possible for Brow and why you shouldn’t completely fade him: He’s second in the entire NBA with a 28.64 PER. Davis has put up at least 56 FD points in each of his last three games, and his 71.2-point projected ceiling sits 17.4 points higher than that of any other PF.
Value
Jon Leuer continues to play well for the Pistons: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +4.16 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He got 33.1 minutes last outing versus the Warriors, and he’s currently projected for 31.7 minutes and an 18.51 usage rate tonight. He has a tough matchup against a Cleveland team that ranks in the top half of defensive efficiency, but the Cavs could elect to rest their ‘Big 3’ after yesterday’s game. If that’s the case, Leuer will likely face off against a 36-year-old Richard Jefferson. Leuer is currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $4,900 salary comes with a position-high +4.73 Projected Plus/Minus and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Jabari Parker has seemingly made a leap this year, and he’s been especially excellent lately: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a +6.68 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He faces a Washington team that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions, and he certainly has a winnable matchup against Markieff Morris:
Jabari is projected for only nine to 12 percent ownership on FD, and he leads the position there with 10 Pro Trends. The Bucks are currently 4.5-point road dogs implied to score 104.75 against the Wizards, and Jabari is projected for a high 27.17 usage rate.
Center
Stud
Alert: DeMarcus Cousins will face off against Joel Embiid. Boogie is easily the highest-priced center at $10,900 DK and $11,200 FD but has a matchup he can dominate: Philly owns a bottom-10 defense and has allowed 105.9 points per 100 possessions this season. He has a nice +1.69 FD Opponent Plus/Minus and will likely match up versus Embiid. Joel has high upside in the NBA as a defender, but he’s barely into his rookie season and has yet to face the likes of a 270-pound force in the paint like Boogie. Embiid has allowed 1.0 point per possession defending post-ups, and Boogie should take it to him tonight. Boogie is projected for 13-16 percent ownership on FD, where he has a +5.77 Projected Plus/Minus and a position-high 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Cody Zeller has been quietly great as a DFS asset lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games, averaging a +5.32 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s up to $5,100 on FD, but he gets an elite matchup against a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace and third-worst in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Zeller has a massive +6.73 Opponent Plus/Minus and is projected for 28.3 minutes against a poor defender in Brook Lopez. Zeller has averaged an excellent 1.1 points per possession as the roll man, and he’s been in that role on 38.4 percent of his possessions. On the road, the Hornets are currently implied to score 111.25 points — the second-highest mark of the slate.
Leverage Play
DraftKings is essentially daring you to roster Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. He has an awful -3.05 DK Opponent Plus/Minus against Paul Millsap and the Hawks, but he’s down to $8,400. He was $9,000 just two games ago. He’s averaged a +4.52 Plus/Minus over his last nine games and is projected for 37.1 minutes and a 27.22 usage rate tonight. The Hawks have been up and down defensively this season: They were a top-two defense for a while and have recently been hovering around No. 1o. KAT, despite the awful matchup, is still the No. 3 center in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a position-high +6.85 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
