Monday brings a five-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook claims the best Opponent Plus/Minus for point guards on a slate in which the horrendous Nuggets are playing. The Hawks have been quite generous to opposing point guards, and they surrendered 65.6 FanDuel points to Westbrook less than two weeks ago. Victor Oladipo will likely sit for the fourth straight game, and when he’s off the court Westbrook leads the Thunder with a 40.3 percent usage rate and a 60.2 percent assist rate, per the FantasyLabs On/Off tool. Westbrook remains an elite tournament option with the slate’s highest ceiling projection, but he’s also a strong cash option on FanDuel, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
There’s not much point guard value on DraftKings, but Dennis Schroder presents a case on FanDuel. His salary has slid down to $6,800, and he leads all point guards in Projected Plus/Minus in a rematch with the Thunder. In their first meeting, Schroder began a five-game streak of at least 34 FanDuel points, a streak that was snapped in Saturday’s loss to the Hornets. Per our Trends tool, point guards projected for at least 20 minutes have averaged a +4.85 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 63.9 percent Consistency against the Thunder this season.
Leverage Play
Jeff Teague is currently the highest-rated point guard in the Phan Model on DraftKings, yet his projected tournament ownership is only 13-16 percent. Over the past two games, he’s averaged 45.63 DraftKings points with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey unavailable. Both injured combo guards will not play today, and when they’re off the court Teague leads the Pacers with a +4.7 percent usage rate differential and a +4.7 Plus/Minus on DraftKings per 36 minutes:
Teague also costs an additional $100 more than Schroder on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has a salary-based expectation of 28.59 FanDuel points, a mark he’s exceeded in five of the past six games. The major concern with Beal is the minutes he’s logged recently combined with the history of stress reactions in his right leg. The Wizards will likely be thin in the second unit with Kelly Oubre and Jason Smith in limbo, and the last two times the Wizards played back-to-back sets Beal didn’t log fewer than 36 minutes in any of the four contests. Despite the potential injury concerns, he leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s the obvious cash play on both platforms.
Values
Gary Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. are generously priced down on FanDuel. Harris and Hardaway have started for their teams recently, although Hardaway will return to a reserve role with Kent Bazemore slated to start against the Thunder. Hardaway has exceeded 17.6 FanDuel points in eight of the past nine games as he fortifies his position in the Hawks’ rotation. His salary on FanDuel implies 16.74 points, and he’s attempted at least 10 shots in four straight games for the first time in his Hawks’ career, as Kyle Korver has been marginalized on the bench. When the Hawks and Thunder tussled earlier this month, Hardaway supplied 21.1 FanDuel points in 26 minutes.
Harris will likely continue to start for the Nuggets, as they’ve posted a 122.7 Offensive Rating over the past two games with the new alignment. Harris contributes in all columns of the stat sheet, and he’ll likely receive more playing time than Hardaway now that the latter has returned to the bench. Harris has a longer track record of success, dating back to last season. Even at an additional $500 on FanDuel, Harris is likelier the less risky play.
Leverage Play
Zach LaVine leads all NBA players with 37.9 minutes per game. He costs the same as Beal on DraftKings and has the same projected ownership in FanDuel guaranteed prize pools. The Timberwolves face a bottom-10 defense and get a boost in pace differential by +5.8. The Wizards are playing the second night of a back-to-back set, and Beal’s 41-point performance from Sunday may lead to elevated ownership. Admittedly, Beal leads all shooting guards on the slate with 64 percent Upside over the past month, but LaVine has played at least 42 minutes in three straight games.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George plays for a team presently implied by Vegas to score 109.25 points, the second-highest mark in the main slate. He’s in a good spot, as the Wizards are playing their second game in as many days. We currently have Paul projected as the highest-scoring small forward on DraftKings, where he’s provided a safe six percent Dud rate over the past month. George offers the highest floor on the slate among small forwards, and he’s presently projected for lower ownership than Jimmy Butler in DraftKings GPPs despite the $400 savings.
Value
Andrew Wiggins notched 30.5 FanDuel points against the Suns earlier this season in 41 minutes, and he’s played at least 39 minutes in the past three games while averaging 35.66 FanDuel points per game. The Suns rank second overall in pace and 24th in Defensive Rating, and small forwards projected for at least 20 minutes have averaged a +5.00 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 73.8 percent accuracy against the Suns this year. The Suns average more fouls than any team in the league, and Wiggins attempted 11 free throws when the two teams battled on November 26th. Wiggins leads all small forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus, and the Timberwolves are currently implied to score a slate-high 110.25 points. His 42 percent Dud rate over the past month is terrifying, but the dropoff in production has priced Wiggins at a reasonable level on DraftKings.
Leverage Plays
Jimmy Butler is the most expensive small forward in the slate, yet he failed to meet salary-based expectations in consecutive games against the Bucks with Jabari Parker as his primary defender. The last time the Bulls and Pistons played, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo were in the starting lineup and Butler recorded 44.2 FanDuel points in 43 minutes. Centers are the only players with a collective positive Plus/Minus against the Pistons, but Butler’s recent success against the team combined with a projected FanDuel GPP ownership on par with Harrison Barnes‘ makes Butler the leverage and contrarian option on the slate.
The pivot way down from all the other small forwards is Dorian Finney-Smith. Who could forget the season-high 37.75 DraftKings points he recorded against the Nuggets last week? Well, the Mavericks will play the Nuggets again tonight, and Smith’s salary of $3,500 on DraftKings makes him the punt du jour.
Power Forward
Stud
Paul Millsap is the most expensive power forward option on both platforms (if we ignore Karl-Anthony Towns on DraftKings since he’s also eligible as a center). Power forward may be the deepest position on the slate, and with a ton of mid-priced plays Millsap may be overlooked in GPPs. Earlier this month he recorded 40.0 FanDuel points against the Thunder after missing three games because of a hip issue.
Values
Markieff Morris, Nikola Jokic, Gorgui Dieng, and Kenneth Faried are all value options on FanDuel.
Morris dealt with a sore left foot last week, but with Kelly Oubre and Jason Smith out Morris played 33 minutes and posted 44.3 FanDuel points on Sunday despite dealing with foul trouble. Morris leads all Wizards players with an average Plus/Minus of +8.06 in road games this season, and he leads all power forwards in Opponent Plus/Minus on today’s slate. As long as Oubre and Smith are ruled out, Morris offers value.
Jokic will continue to start for the Nuggets, who collectively average a +1.78 Plus/Minus at home on FanDuel, the third-best team mark. Coach Malone desperately wants to play Jokic 30 minutes, but foul trouble has impacted the sophomore’s playing time over the past two starts. Despite being capped at 20 minutes in those games, he’s accumulated a total 51.6 FanDuel points.
The Mavericks have the lowest and the Nuggets have the highest rebound rates in the NBA. Faried has settled in the Nuggets’ new rotation as the sixth man, and he leads the Nuggets with a 19.7 percent rebound rate. Darrell Arthur is out of the rotation, and Faried picked up a few extra minutes in the past two games due to Jokic’s foul trouble.
Dieng’s recent track record may shift his prospects to tournaments, where he currently leads all power forwards with a projected ownership of 26-30 percent on FanDuel. During a recent five-game stretch when he cost a flat $5,000 on FanDuel, Dieng exceeded salary-based expectations in all five games. His salary has sunk back down to $5,500, and Dieng produced 34.4 FanDuel points when the Timberwolves played the Suns in late November.
Leverage Play
Power forward is essentially Millsap at the higher end and then a bunched-up middle tier. The second-most expensive power forward on FanDuel is Tobias Harris. He doesn’t rate highly in the Phan Model, but the last time the Pistons faced the Bulls Harris posted 37.4 FanDuel points – his fourth-highest total this season. The problem with the Pistons-Bulls game is the over/under of 195.5, the lowest mark on the slate. Additionally, coach Stan Van Gundy hinted at changing the starting lineup following Saturday’s loss. As long as Jon Leuer doesn’t play tonight, Harris’ playing time should be stable. However, it’s been a tossup recently as to who dominates the offensive touches.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past three games, and the last time he faced the Suns he posted 45 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. Although he’s the no-brainer stud option on DraftKings, his salary has increased to a season-high $9,400 on FanDuel. Towns may be safer than Millsap at power forward on DraftKings, in which case Millsap could be used as a leverage play at the position.
Values
Al Jefferson has played a significant role in the Pacers’ rotation over the past two contests with Rodney Stuckey unavailable and Glenn Robinson III replacing an injured Monta Ellis in the starting lineup. In less than 18 minutes in both games, Jefferson posted at least 22.0 FanDuel points. Among centers, Jefferson possesses the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He costs less than $4,000 on both platforms, and he leads all centers with 93 percent Consistency on both sites.
Salah Mejri‘s salary has dipped to $3,100 on DraftKings. Over the past seven games, he’s averaged 17.2 DraftKings points. Over that stretch, he topped out at 28.0 DraftKings points against the Nuggets, whom he’s facing today. Mejri’s playing time has been more consistent than Jefferson’s, but Jefferson presently has the higher floor on DraftKings.
Leverage Play
Andre Drummond has failed to meet salary-based expectations in three straight games. The last time the Pistons faced the Bulls, he was limited to fewer than 25 minutes for the fourth time this season, as coach Stan Van Gundy opted to close the game with four reserves and Harris. One of those reserves, Jon Leuer, didn’t play in Saturday’s loss due to back spasms and may not be available for today’s contest. We have two opposing forces at work: On the one hand, Drummond is averaging a -1.56 Plus/Minus on 37.5 percent Consistency in road games. On the other hand, centers are averaging a +1.30 Plus/Minus on 58.2 percent against the Bulls this season.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
